Financial crisis or delayed recovery? What awaits Iraqis?
An Iraqi government advisor reassures that the federal general budget possesses the tools and capabilities to manage the country’s financial life with a high capacity to handle cash flows from oil and non-oil revenues, and maintains a high degree of economic and financial stability in the country.
These assurances come at a time when an Iraqi parliamentarian believes the country is suffering from a clear financial deficit, evident in the Cabinet’s recent decision to withdraw tax revenues. This means the government has reached a point where it is unable to fund salaries. Consequently, it has used tax deposits from contractors to secure employee salaries until the end of the year.
Economists’ opinions varied between optimists who believed the financial crisis was still far off, especially given that Iraq’s central bank reserves exceed $100 billion and the government has plenty of time to confront such challenges. Meanwhile, pessimists expressed pessimism about the economic situation, arguing that the current turmoil could herald a real financial crisis, especially in light of high spending and fluctuating crude oil prices.
Government reassurance
In detail, the Prime Minister’s advisor for financial affairs, Mazhar Mohammed Salih, said, “Since oil revenues constitute nearly 90 percent of the total revenues in the federal general budget, Iraq purchased its oil at an average of $75 per barrel in the first quarter of the year, which is higher than the price set in Federal General Budget Law No. 13 of 2023 (the three-year budget).”
“However, things changed after OPEC+ removed restrictive quotas on member states, which led to lower prices. The price drop will be partially or fully offset by higher quantities sold, as OPEC will review the market situation next month (June) to see if there is an oil glut in the oil market or not,” Saleh added to the agency.
He explained that “the general budget is certainly affected by the oil asset cycle, and it always prioritizes securing essential public expenditures, including salaries, wages, pensions, social welfare, infrastructure projects, and services.”
He continued: “The general budget policy operates on a principle called ‘fiscal space,’ which means using all available financial flexibility to secure revenues, starting with controlling expenditures and spending to the minimum, ideal limits, and ending with maximizing resources, including the available borrowing mechanisms provided by the aforementioned Law No. 13, which provided precautionary funding to address the deficit, amounting to 64 trillion dinars in the most severe cases.”
He pointed out that “the general budget still possesses the tools and capabilities to manage the country’s financial life with exceptionally high capabilities in dealing with cash flows from oil and non-oil revenues, and it maintains a high degree of economic and financial stability in the country.”
Saleh pointed out that “government spending often constitutes nearly half of the gross domestic product, making it crucial for driving the national economy, which continues to operate at a tangible level of stability.”
Financial deficit
However, MP Zuhair al-Fatlawi noted that “there is a financial deficit, and this was clearly demonstrated by the Cabinet’s decision to withdraw tax funds. This means the government has reached a stage where it is unable to finance salaries. Consequently, it has used tax deposits for contractors to secure employee salaries until the end of the year.”
Speaking to Shafaq News Agency, Al-Fatlawi revealed, “There is a significant delay in disbursing investment and operational funds, for example in health departments that suffer from a shortage in purchasing medicines. Some ministries, such as the Ministry of Water Resources, have not yet received funding from their investment budgets, and some ministries are only disbursing their operational budgets, which include salaries, retirement, and the like.”
“As for investment projects, such as the ministries of communications and water resources, the funds allocated for them in the budget law have not been spent,” according to Al-Fatlawi.
He pointed out that “salaries are indeed secured until the end of the year, but there is an actual deficit of 19 trillion dinars, while most projects in the country’s governorates, including those in Babylon, Diwaniyah, and Karbala, have stopped, and have become dependent on favoritism and spending for certain parties over others. Furthermore, money has not been disbursed to contractors who are asking the government for billions of dinars, which affects the quality of work.”
Economic expert Mustafa Al-Faraj agreed with Zuhair Al-Fatlawi regarding the financial deficit Iraq is suffering from, stating that “despite the increase in oil production, Iraq still faces a troubling economic situation that could portend a real financial crisis, especially in light of high spending and fluctuating crude oil prices.”
Speaking to the agency, Al-Faraj said, “The recent withdrawal of deposits from a bank raises serious questions about liquidity stability and confidence in the financial sector, and reflects the fragility of the economic structure in the absence of serious reforms.”
Compensation
For his part, financial and economic expert Safwan Qusay explained that “the process of setting the default price of a barrel of oil in the budget at $70 and the decline in oil prices to below $62 led to an increase in the default deficit, but the government has a range of alternatives to finance this deficit.”
Among these alternatives, Qusay explained to Shafaq News Agency, “are maximizing non-oil revenues, accelerating the collection of taxes (electricity and water), converting stagnant accounts into final revenue, as well as developing the performance of some federal ministries to generate income, in addition to changing the type of land and the possibility of imposing fees on such a procedure.”
Qusay emphasized the importance of considering these alternatives before resorting to domestic or foreign borrowing, and managing government resources with an investment mindset.
The financial expert predicted that “there will be an adjustment in the Ministry of Finance’s share of self-financing fund revenues, and that the deficit in oil revenues will be compensated for by $1.5 billion per month.”
He explained that “the shortfall in these revenues can be compensated for by rationalizing the use of petroleum derivatives domestically and increasing exports. Such a measure requires reconsidering the quantity and quality of fuel used domestically and the possibility of maximizing exports.”
Qusay concluded by stating, “The financial crisis is still far away, especially since Iraq has reserves at the Central Bank of more than $100 billion, which can sustain expenditures at the same level. Meanwhile, the government is considering a range of options and has plenty of time to address such challenges.”
Shafaq.com