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Mrs. BGG

Iraqi Dinar/Dollar auction 02-09-17 (most recent listing)

Currency Auctions Announcement No. 3378

This daily currency auction was held in the Central Bank of Iraq on the 02-09-2017

The results were as follows:

More: http://dinarupdates.com/observer/
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What we obtain too cheap, we esteem too lightly; it is dearness only that gives everything its value. – Thomas Paine

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BGG   …early 2017 (according to all the real sources) is still a real forecast.

Read More: http://www.dinarupdates.com/observer/

THIS REPORT WAS SENT TO CONGRESS LAST MAY. IT PLAINLY SHOWS IN THIS REPORT THEY EXPECTED THE DINAR TO REVALUE AT AROUND A DOLLAR IN 2013.

We are seeing and hearing that the inflation rate is still climbing and they are pushing to get us our money?? This report is from page 84 of the massive SIGR report.

BGG ~ This is a screen shot from the “Special Inspector General for Iraq Reconstruction” – Apr 2012, quarterly report to Congress. For members of our Government to say they have no idea what is going on here – means they haven’t read some very basic documents presented them.
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I pointed out (last night) this is a highly speculative investment. We are, in no way, guaranteed anything. However, this SIGR report gives us some valuable insights…

1) This is information given to the US CONGRESS on a quarterly basis… I find it hard to believe such an information source would intentionally mislead Congress. They tend to frown on such behavior. Which goes directly to the validity of this adventure – against all advice from Wells Fargo or other such naysayers.

2) It points out there having been a legitimate “plan” – or time frame in motion…having been projected to be done in 2013. We are obviously in “overtime” now.

3) It gives us an idea as to who is in charge…the CoM – or Council of Ministers. Who do they answer to?? Maliki. Period. When is he likely to push this forward?? Historically – he has been a “weak Dinar” policy advocate. However, rumor from his own inner circle admits he can’t win a third term in office without some currency reform.

I fully expect him to use every tool in his “wheel house” to win – his recent moves in Anbar and the disputed territories prove as much. Currency reform has to be a “biggie”. Though this WAS their thinking a couple of months ago – there is no promise it is still part of their political calculus. We shall see.

4) Though no guarantee of the actual future plan they wind up engaging – this report points out an increase in value that would have taken the Dinar from “one-tenth of a cent” to a value “of slightly less than $1″..

Read More: http://www.dinarupdates.com/showthread.php?18519-The-Dinar-Daily-Tuesday-Feb-7th-2017&p=128477#post128477

Loop (Dinar Guru) –    […according to the SIGR report_”In April 2012, the CoM postponed indefinitely plans for a currency reform that would have removed three zeros from the Iraqi dinar in 2013…” – they truely were planning an RV back in 2013!]  It means that the US Gov is aware of their plans to increase the value of there currency.  This is one of the biggest clues that we are on the right track.

Read More: http://www.dinarupdates.com/observer/

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World Bank links financial support for Iraq to reconciliation – Reuters News

By Maher Chmaytelli

BAGHDAD, Feb 6 (Reuters) – The World Bank plans to offer Iraq financial support in parallel with projects to foster reconciliation after Islamic State’s defeat, its regional director said on Monday, to ensure that reconstruction after years of conflict is sustainable.

U.S.-backed Iraqi and Kurdish forces have dislodged Islamic State from most cities that the hardline Sunni group captured in 2014 in Iraq, and they are now fighting the militants in their last major stronghold, Mosul, in the north.

While mainstream Shi’ite, Sunni and Kurdish forces are taking part or supporting the battle to dislodge Islamic State from Mosul, their politicians are yet to heal rifts that followed the U.S.-led invasion of Iraq in 2003.

“The Mosul battle is keeping all these forces together,” World Bank director for the Middle East Ferid Belhaj told Reuters by telephone. “When the fight is over, we don’t know what kind of pressures … will be in place; that’s why it is very important for the Iraqis to start this exercise right now.”

“We will try as much as we can to make sure that the incentives … for reconciliation would be more appealing than the incentives for each of these factions … to go it alone.”

The World Bank approved in December a new loan of $1.485 billion to help Iraq lessen the impact of low oil prices on its economy and shoulder the cost of the war on Islamic State, bringing its total support to the nation to nearly $3.4 billion. (Full Story)

The OPEC nation’s government income comes almost exclusively from exports of crude oil. It fell sharply when world oil prices tumbled three years ago.

In addition to planned financial support “we will bring people who have had experience in rebuilding social ties from a number of countries around the word,” Belhaj said, mentioning the experiences of South Africa, Morocco and Rwanda.

“This is going to be a parallel track. We will make sure that money will flow … towards reconstruction and rebuilding, but at the same to make reconstruction and rebuilding sustainable, we will need to make sure the social contract is being drawn in a way that would allow for the infrastructure to remain solid.”

The World Bank has also offered advice to the government about maintaining the Mosul dam, said Belhaj, although it was not involved in financing or arranging the contract with Italian company Trevi which was selected last year to carry out badly needed repair.

A U.S. government briefing paper released a year ago said 500,000 to 1.47 million Iraqis living in the highest-risk areas along the Tigris River “probably would not survive” the impact of a flood that would be caused by the collapse of the dam located north of Mosul. Iraqi authorities have played down the threat, estimating only a one in 1,000 chance of failure.

Keywords: MIDEAST-CRISIS/IRAQ-WORLDBANK

Read More: http://www.dinarupdates.com/showthread.php?46258-World-Bank-links-financial-support-for-Iraq-to-reconciliation-Reuters-News-06-Feb

Loop (Dinar Guru) –   Article:  “US Treasury pays tribute to the fight against the central bank for the financing of terrorism and money laundering”   The US Treasury is pleased at the speed in which Iraq has gotten the electronic system to monitor the movement of the money in and out of Iraq up and running. This shows just how serious Iraq is about stopping the financing of terrorism and money laundering. Which is a huge part of the IMF SBA.  Remember that 83 people just finished a training with KPMG last week and before that there were multiple articles about trainings of how to detect suspicious activity. THIS NEWS IS SO ENCOURAGING. THEY ARE DOING WHAT THEY NEED TO IN ORDER TO ENTER THE FREE MARKET IN SOME FASHION.

Read More: http://www.dinarupdates.com/observer/

Iraq: Calls to raise the value of the dinar

Registration of the Iraqi economy, experts do not rule out a relatively rebound this year compared to 2016, «in the event of rising crude oil prices continued worldwide». They expected the government to take the initiative on economic reform «a broader dimension to the level of activation of the special efforts supported any productive sectors of industry, agriculture and services.» And approaching experts forecast a lot of calls to correct the value of the Iraqi dinar and the path, consistent with the exceptional economic situation in which the country is going through, with many believing that the official pricing of the dinar against the dollar is unrealistic in the current circumstances.

Economic academic Essam Mahouelle called in an interview to «life», noted that this year be the year to enhance the purchasing power of the dinar and the ability of «strengthens the confidence in the national currency, which represents the sovereignty of Iraq». He stressed the need to «restrict foreign business dealings only in dollars.»

And ways to raise the price of the dinar, Mahouelle saw the need to «manage the country’s affairs, economic mentality and look long-term, along with a quote economic experiences of states passed in conditions similar to those in which the passing of Iraq, as well as the reduction of trading the dollar in the domestic business transactions to support the national currency.» He stressed that the supervision of the Central Bank and coordination with economic authorities and relevant ministries «role in enhancing the value of the dinar by preventing the circulation of foreign currency in the local trade for whatever reason, and counted only foreign transactions». He stressed the importance that the «private and government banks take action to deal strengthens Iraqi dinars».

The dollar exchange rate against the dinar will fluctuate up and down, as he was about 4 thousand dinars in the nineties in the dollar, and scored a gradual decline after 2003 to continue to fall to 1200 dinars to the dollar in the last ten years. And it rose again after the adoption of the budget in 2015, and to require the central bank to determine its sales of foreign currency in accordance with Article 50 of that year’s budget law.

Mahouelle He pointed out that «importers of goods were turning the dinar to the dollar when paying their price by banks, as the audience did not feel the importance of the US currency only when traveling abroad and are turning to banks, turned them dinar to the dollar in foreign currency and give them cash or instruments travelers after bank approval Central and under the foreign exchange law. »

He was an expert in the industrial sector Aqeel al-Saadi, said that the government’s initiative to reform the economy «will take a wider range with the central bank’s quest to launch industrial and agricultural loans, as well as legislation supporting the private sector laws and the transition to a market economy».

He said the financial expert Thamer al-Azzawi, «the new year will see a recovery in the capital market, with the trend to increase the foreign currency sale and provided outlets for citizens, as well as the central bank is keen to maintain the value of the Iraqi dinar and the dollar exchange rate». He explained that the new year «will see a greater reliance on technology in financial transactions, as well as to facilitate the transactions of the citizens in the banks.» He predicted that «Iraq Stock Exchange achieved a wider traded compared to last year, during which the record trillion traded shares of companies contributing to Iraq, because of the direction the state to move to a market economy».

He guessed expert Rahim al-Shammari, that «the sale of crude oil price increases in the world markets, because of« OPEC »and nations outside the Organization agreement means that the coming months will see a rise in prices». Did not rule out that the «estimated price of a barrel of crude oil between $ 55 to $ 65.»

Rawabetcenter.com

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The following .PDF is the review by RCookie of the IMF board’s publishing of Iraq’s SBA (excellent info) – He would have wanted you all to have it.. posting the whole .PDF was the only way to get it on here. Enjoy. BGG

Robert Cook  CSW  CSS  CBP  CST  CTC

Iraq:

If you could find some way to convince folks to at least skim through this document, they would be amazed. The moves Abadi has been making the last few months – kind of sense now. There is some outstanding information here.

DayTrader

IMF EXECUTIVE BOARD COMPLETES FIRST REVIEW IRAQ’S STAND-BY ARRANGEMENT (45 pages…)

Ghost757: Hello everyone, I hate the idea of parachuting in, creating a dust up and then not being around much, but I just don’t have much time to spend. This is why I haven’t posted these thoughts questions before. If the chat gets slow today, I’d love to hear any / all of these commented upon.

I will start by saying that I have a great deal of respect for the contributors here. The amount of time and energy devoted to this is praiseworthy.

Having said that, I have a few thoughts that are somewhat at odds with some of our “conventional wisdom”. Firstly, we hear that a “dinar is a dinar” often. While one can’t argue with the tautological nature of the statement, I would also add: the buying power of the dinar can vary significantly. A few months ago, I had a discussion in chat and a Mod suggested that the in-country prices would remain the same after a revaluation. He even suggested that a 10,000IQD loaf of bread would still be priced at 10,000IQD after an RV of 1:1 (we used easy round numbers for simplicity – not as a prophecy).

BGG: I agree with you there – the cost of goods (as priced in IQD) will have to come down, for a lot of reasons.

Ghost757: We can look to many examples: A Ruble is still a Ruble, but ask a Russian if they can buy more or less than they could 3 years ago with their Ruble. A Yen was cheap and Japanese cars nearly put Detroit out of business, the Yen appreciated significantly and instead of goods, we say tourists because of the “strong” yen.

I will assert that the idea of an in-country / out-country RV that is dissimilar is just impossible. The resulting “run” on the currency would bankrupt the nation. In that scenario, folks would be buying as many IQD where they were cheap as possible, only to submit them to where they are valuable. That is transactional and would drive the value up or down immediately (or, as I said bankrupt the nation).

Secondly, We discuss the “note count” a lot. It is an important piece of a countries monetary policy, but we should be cautious about reading too much into it. If our belief is that the real reason for note count reduction is to replace 25K IQD notes with 250 IQD notes, then we should take a couple of additional steps. 1) What might the Iraqi population do when they realize that the 25k notes that they traded for 250 notes are worth $25,000 (again, for simplicity, I am using a 1:1)? They will riot like there is no tomorrow. What if the citizens are made whole and everyone with a couple of big wads of 25k notes is an overnight millionaire? No one comes to work the following day. It would be like an entire nation of Mega-lotto (or whatever it is called) winners. No policemen, garbage men, or power plant operators. I have traveled extensively in the Middle East. There are zero national workers. They are all guest workers, and they didn’t arrive overnight. Imagine the security nightmare that would create. Therefore, how does a “flip of the switch” work out well for Iraq?

Certainly, they would like to have a currency that is as “glorious” as it once was – but does it really matter for trade? The M1 is enough (or was until the constriction). It really doesn’t impact trade that a Kuwaiti Dinar is MUCH more valuable than an Iraqi Dinar. It doesn’t slow down US / Canadian trade that a Canadian Dollar is only worth 70 cents.

If the currency opens low and floats, there will be many who will see that rate as a “good enough” return, exchange, and reinvest or go on permanent vacation in the Caribbean. As those folks move out, new buyers move in. The net cost to Iraq? ZERO! It appreciation was funded by those entering / increasing their position. This occurs until the IQD finds it’s balance point – all without a nickel coming for the CBI.

I have more, but I’ll save the rest for another day,Thanks for reading – I enjoy this group.

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Indicative rates – 02.09.2017

http://www.cbi.iq/

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