IMF Staff Concludes Visit on Iraq
September 28, 2017
“End-of-Mission press releases include statements of IMF staff teams that convey preliminary findings after a visit to a country. The views expressed in this statement are those of the IMF staff and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF’s Executive Board. This mission will not result in a Board discussion.”
The Iraqi authorities and the staff of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) held discussions in Amman from September 17 to 28, 2017 on the third review of Iraq’s 36-month Stand-By Arrangement (SBA). The IMF Executive Board approved the SBA on July 7, 2016 (See Press Release No. 16/321), and completed the second review on August 1, 2017 (See Press Release No. 17/311).
At the end of the mission, Mr. Christian Josz, Mission Chief for Iraq, issued the following statement:
“The Iraqi authorities and IMF staff started discussions on the third review of the SBA and made good progress towards reaching agreement on a draft 2018 budget in line with the SBA. These discussions will continue during the upcoming IMF and World Bank Annual Meetings from October 13–15, 2017 in Washington, DC.”
“During the visit, the team met with the Acting Governor of the Central Bank of Iraq (CBI), Dr. Ali Mohsen Ismail Al-Allaq, Acting Deputy Minister of Finance, Dr. Maher Johan, , and officials from the Prime Minister’s office, ministries of finance, oil, planning, and electricity, the State Oil Marketing Organization, the Central Statistical Organization, the Central Bank of Iraq, and the Board of Supreme Audit. The team would like to thank the Iraqi authorities for their cooperation and the open and productive discussions.”
Imf.org
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Barzani is isolated and lives in a psychological crisis after the referendum
Baghdad – Journal News – The Iraqi coalition forces rejected the “Sunni Arab component” to establish a state that is not supported by local, regional and international, except for Israel in the north of the country. The Kurdish political source said that the head of the Kurdistan region (outgoing) Massoud Barzani is living a difficult psychological situation because of Baghdad’s unexpected positions after the The referendum.
“The Sunni component strongly rejects the establishment of a Kurdish state in northern Iraq and also rejects the expropriation of land from the Nineveh Plain and other areas and forcibly annexing it to Kurdistan,” said the alliance’s deputy, Nasr al-Jubouri.
Jubouri ruled out “a military solution to end the crisis of the Barzani referendum and can not end the crises by a military solution.”
A Kurdish source said that the head of the Kurdistan region (outgoing) Massoud Barzani is currently living in a Kurdish internal crisis and international condemnation of the referendum, despite warnings and international rejection.
“Barzani is living a political siege at the local and regional levels and is waiting for a miracle to save him from what has become a hidden fate for Kurdistan because of the referendum,” the source, who asked not to be named, told the Journal News. “Barzani is living in a psychological crisis now and he has chosen to remain silent and is isolated from the political environment except for those close to his party leadership,” he
Aljournal.com
BGG ~ Though this is a pretty serious indictment on his situation, I am skeptical his “ship is sunk”. I agree in this regard though, I don’t think this was exactly the response he had hoped for “post-referendum”…
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Headlines of the day…
Kurdish leader: We will not abide by the Iraqi constitution (9/29)
BGG ~ So I guess all this “soft-talk” on the part of Kurdish officials was just more B.S. – This sounds like they fully intend to move right forward. Bad MOVE.
The Central Bank denies the suspension of dealing with the Territory (9/29)
BGG ~ First they did cut them off – then they didn’t. I wonder which it is. Probably did. We’ll soon find out. My guess is – as things get tighter and tighter… the more reasonable the Kurds will get. Of course, there is the looming elections in Nov. This could see a change in the whole political landscape in Kurdistan… as well there SHOULD BE.
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Abadi on Twitter today…
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This is the condition of Kurdistan to postpone independence
A senior leader of the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) said on Friday that the Kurdistan region of Iraq is ready to postpone independence to two years provided that the central government in Baghdad and the presence of major powers accept the declaration of independence after two years and not to create problems.
A member of the leadership of the Kurdistan Democratic Party, Dari Hussain, said that “Barzani and before the referendum confirmed to all that the region is ready to negotiate with Baghdad and the rest of the parties in respect of the referendum and the independence of Iraqi Kurdistan,” stressing “the readiness of the region to postpone and freeze the issue of independence at the present time to another two years, There will be guarantees and the presence of major powers such as America, France and Britain that Baghdad recognizes the Kurdish state and not create problems.
The leader of the Kurdistan Democratic Party, “The freeze of independence for two more years much better than creating crises at the present time because the current mindset can not be easily changed,” he said.
Waradana.com
BGG ~ JMHO, but I don’t think this is the time for this kind of talk out of the Kurds.
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9/29 – Recorded Call Replay Link
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The Central Bank prevents four Kurdish banks from entering the currency auction
An official source in the Iraqi banking sector, on Thursday, that the central bank decided to prevent the entry of four Kurdish banks from entering the currency auction.
The source said that “the Central Bank has decided to stop the banks of Arbil and the commercial region, and Jihan and Kurdistan from entering the auction of currency within the financial sanctions on the Kurdistan region.”
The source added that “the Central Bank stopped the system of remittances with the Kurdistan region,” noting that “these sanctions are part of the sanctions carried out by the government.”
waradana.net
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G-Lin (Dinar Guru) – Article quote: “A coalition of state law to collect signatures to dismiss President Fuad Masum for the leadership of the leader of the coalition for the presidency of the Republic. Maliki is currently the first deputy of Masoom.” This is exactly what Maliki has been trying to accomplish for 2 years. …since Maliki controls the Supreme court through Mahmoud, it will be interesting to see how this is dealt with. It also states in the constitution that occurrence of death or impeachment, the Pres. position goes to the first deputy which is Malik.
Read more: http://www.dinarupdates.com/observer
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Sully ~ Good Morning. I wanted to say I too, remain bullish, in spite of what seems to be a never-ending Gerbil wheel we are on. I feel this way because of several reasons but I have one “bottom line” reason which concerns both the CBI and Iraq.
1) The Central Bank continues to keep this financial boat trim with auctions and such but it comes at a cost. This cost is reducing their reserves.
A) Each day as Iraq spends to rebuild and spends to cover debt it gets worse.
B) I feel there is drop dead “time-frame” for this country. It might be weeks or months. There is no way to know. Further, there is a point at which they will face daily – the choice of bankruptcy or getting off the program rate.
C) Trying to make their play dough work is sapping reserves.
As such, I remain bullish and thank you all for reading this and putting the incredible time into DU.
Tom S.
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Adam Montana (Dinar Guru) – […For something that was in the strike zone nearly 7 months ago, what zone is the HCL in now?] Actually, I think this is a good thing! The referendum is meaningless – sure, they voted…All this does is put pressure on everyone to come together. As far as a “strike zone”, there have been plenty and there will continue to be more. When they decide to act on it, we win a bowl of RV soup.
Read more: http://www.dinarupdates.com/observer
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Parliament authorizes the government to arrest Barzani
BAGHDAD / Baghdadiya News .. The House of Representatives in its regular session, on Wednesday, a decision on the referendum referendum in the Kurdistan region, while a legal expert said that the implementation of the decision entrusted to the executive authority.
The decision of the Council of Representatives includes 13 paragraphs, including the obligation of the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces to take all constitutional and legal measures to preserve the unity of Iraq and to confirm the decision of the Ministerial Council for National Security to judicial follow-up of those responsible for carrying out the referendum, including Kurdistan Region President Massoud Barzani.
The text of the parliament’s decision to close the border ports outside the control of the federal authority, the return of northern oil fields in Kirkuk and the disputed areas, and take measures to remove the governor of Kirkuk, in addition to informing the States that have consulates and representatives in the Kurdistan region to close, Conditional dialogue only after the cancellation of the results of the referendum.
For his part, the legal expert Tariq Harb that the decision issued by the parliament, not implemented immediately, but is deposited with the executive authority.
He added that “the Council of Ministers will be the implementation of the decision of the parliament,” noting that “the Council of Ministers is the supreme authority according to Article (80) of the Constitution, which states that the planning and implementation of the general policy of the State of the Council of Ministers,” adding that ” The ministers were aware of the implementation of the resolution. ”
“The government implements this paragraph by arresting Barzani and those responsible for carrying out the referendum and handing them over to the judiciary,” Harb said.
“The arrest of those responsible for the implementation of the referendum does not require the issuance of arrest warrants, because according to the law, the implementation of the referendum is a” crime is a witness, “and does not need warrants arrest to arrest the perpetrator,” stressing that “Massoud Barzani after this decision is considered Prosecuted and wanted by Baghdad. ”
Baghdad News Agency
BGG ~ Before everyone gets all “up in arms” about what is right, who they support, or what they think they “know”…
Let me ask a few questions.
So what constitutes treason?
Why is Barzani still in power 2 years after his second term expired?
Why is the KRG Parliament suspended?
Why did his family choose to purchase large estates in the U.S. – Virginia to be exact (other than the Nov. 1 elections he insists he won’t be a part of…)
On one final note – I’ll recall to your attention, Barzani and the Kurds had the final swing vote with which to remove Maliki in his first term (as I recall – it might have been later…), but instead, chose to NOT USE IT. Why?
Make no mistake… I am a Kurdish sympathizer. However, I am for the Kurdish people… not the Kurdish leadership. None of them. They are all crooked.
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Kaperoni (Dinar Guru) – …As a result of the Kurdistan referendum, the Parliamentary Finance Committee has asked the CBI to suspend Kurdish banks from the daily currency auctions. It appears the CBI has confirmed they are in fact doing so with the documentation about. What does this mean to us? It means that the decision to do this is counter productive to the goals set forth by the recent IMF Stand by Agreement and efforts from the UST and IMF to help Iraq meet the conditions to move to Article VIII. …the sole remaining obstacle was to demonstrate the CBI could manage the dinar within Iraq and maintain a spread between the Official Rate and the Market Rate (street rate) of 2% or less…the IMF requires this to he held for 90 days before compliance would be met. The goal is 1200 to $1 or about.The decision now to prevent the Kurdistan region has had an effect on this spread as reported today it is now 1275 to $1 in the region. [post 1 of 2….stay tuned]
Read more: http://www.dinarupdates.com/observer
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Baghdad gives Erbil three days to hand over control of airports
BAGHDAD, Iraq – The Iraqi Council of Ministers has decided to bring the Kurdistan Region’s airports under the authority of the central government, giving Erbil three days to hand them over to Baghdad.
Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi announced the decision in his weekly news conference after the meeting of the Council of Ministers. If Erbil does not comply within the three days, Baghdad will close the airports, he asserted.
“We decided to halt all airlines, travel, and the landing of planes from regional and world countries at Erbil and Sulaimani airports, and vice versa. The decision will be implemented within three days, by Friday,” at 6pm, Abadi said, adding they have contacted countries with regard to this.
Humanitarian and emergency flights will not be affected provided they obtain prior approval from Baghdad. Domestic flights are not affected.
Abadi also demanded all oil revenues of the Kurdistan Region to be returned to the control of federal authorities.
He tweeted that those who want to “weaken” Iraq’s sovereignty have “miscalculated.”
Abadi stressed that the referendum will hurt Kurdistan and Iraq as a whole and his government will impose its authority according to the constitution.
“We will not extend our hand to touch the honor of Kurdish citizens,” Abadi added.
“The leaders of the Kurdistan Region didn’t listen to the calls for not holding the referendum and we will not hold discussions on its result,” Abadi said.
Flights have been landing and taking off from both Erbil and Sulaimani airports, according to their respective websites.
Read More: http://www.dinarupdates.com/showthread.php?54444-Baghdad-gives-Erbil-three-days-to-hand-over-control-of-airports&p=179293#post179293
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Dinar Updates – Q & A Call – BGG & Co. From Sept. 26th, 8:00 PM CST 641-715-3640 pin #528733
9/26 – Recorded Call Replay Link
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Kurdistan Votes to Leave Iraq:
What Happens Next?
Residents of Iraqi Kurdistan voted Monday in a controversial referendum on whether to declare independence from Iraq, with preliminary results showing almost 92% in favor of separation. We’re still waiting for (hopefully) detailed official results so we can map out how different districts voted. But in the meantime, let’s answer some of the big questions:
Will Kurdistan become independent now?
The Kurdistan region’s government considers this vote official and “binding”, in contrast to an informal 2005 referendum, even though the Iraqi federal government in Baghdad considers it completely illegal. But it was never intended to trigger an automatic declaration of independence. Instead, Kurdistan leader Masoud Barzani has promised to use a “YES” vote as leverage to negotiate independence with Iraqi government. So far, no date has been set for Kurdistan’s declaration of independence, and it could still be years away.
What if Iraq never agrees to let Kurdistan be independent?
When asked in an interview this June, Barzani said “It’s too early to say that”. But he did rule out violent means, or any end to cooperation in fighting the so-called “Islamic State (IS; formerly ISIS/ISIL). If Kurdistan’s government eventually feels it’s reached the end of the road in negotiations with the Baghdad, it could choose to declare independence unilaterally – that is, without anyone else’s approval. But the international community rarely rewards that kind of independence declaration, and at best Kurdistan would become the next Kosovo, recognized by half the world but rejected by the other, and blocked from membership in major organizations like the UN.
Which countries would recognize Kurdistan’s independence?
If Kurdistan successfully reaches an agreement with Baghdad before declaring independence, like South Sudan did in 2011, it will probably be recognized by almost all the world’s countries. But if it declares independence unilaterally, its prospects aren’t so good. The Iraqi government and neighboring countries Iran, Turkey, and Syria all strongly opposed Kurdistan even having this referendum, and would be even more livid at an outright declaration of independence. Major world powers have been more lukewarm: The US and Germany opposed the timing of the referendum, but might be sympathetic to eventual independence, while Russia and France have declined to take sides at all. There is one country that gave its full support to the referendum, and would be most likely to recognize an independent Kurdistan: Israel. As a country that also sees itself as the best hope for protecting a persecuted ethnic group, Israel has a lot in common with Kurdistan. Because of that, Israeli leaders would be happy to have an ally in the region who’s not friendly with Iran and doesn’t share brotherly relations with the Arab Middle Eastern countries (Kurdistan’s people are mostly Muslim, but not Arab).
But isn’t Kurdistan a great candidate for independence?
Iraqi Kurdistan is often held up as an example of an aspiring country that would actually be more stable and democratic than the existing countries in the Middle East. And that may be true: Iraqi Kurdistan has been a lot more stable lately than Iraq, Syria, or Yemen, and it’s probably more democratic than most of the countries surrounding it. But it’s not that simple: the Kurdistan Regional Government has its fair share of problems too, dominated by one political party built around a family dynasty, led by a president whose term expired two years ago, and often accused of corruption. Meanwhile, many outside observers worry that Kurdish independence would destabilize the region, leading to violence as neighboring countries oppose the change and Kurdish minorities in those countries become emboldened. On the other hand, many feel that the Kurds, long persecuted by other countries’ governments, deserve a country of their own regardless of
the risks. And scary predictions about the future often don’t come to pass. PolGeoNow neither supports nor opposes Kurdistan’s independence. As always, we’re just here to report what happens.
Still, the people of Kurdistan really do want independence, right?
Though 92% is surprisingly high (a poll last month found 25% planning to vote “NO”), it seems that most Kurds in Iraq do want an independent country. Although the second-largest party in Kurdistan’s parliament opposed the timing of the referendum, it supports independence in principle and decided not to the boycott the vote.
Of course, not everyone in Kurdistan is a Kurd. The region is also home to many Turkmen, Arab, and Assyrian people (these are language-based cultural groupings; in terms of religion, Kurds, Arabs, and Turkmens are all mostly Sunni Muslims, with some Shiites and local minority religious groups, while Assyrians are mostly Christians). Many Arabs, who form the majority in Iraq as a whole, opposed the vote, especially in disputed territories like Kirkuk. But others supported it, having more faith in the Kurdistan government than Iraq’s. Turkmens and Assyrians were similarly split, with minority political parties representing them coming down on both sides of the debate.
Courtesy: https://worldview.stratfor.com/
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Post RV Checklist (it’s getting to be that time!! Listen up!!)
Dos and Don’ts of Windfall Wealth:
Treat it like a PowerBall win
– Tell no one, not even family. If you must talk, do so with one who is already in the know.
– Don’t run out & buy new “stuff”. People notice.
– Get an unpublished number and give it out very sparingly.
– Get a tax accountant you can trust to make sure the IRS is satisfied (Certified Opinion is something to look into) and pursue asset protection…
Read Complete List: http://www.dinarupdates.com/showthread.php?18519-The-Post-RV-Checklist-and-Flashback-documents&p=128477#post128477
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