“It’s Not the Donations, Stupid”: Key Points from Kuwait Conference
With a few exceptions, the coverage of the “Kuwait International Conference for the Reconstruction of Iraq” has been confusing at best, ranging from those who thought it was a failure for raising far less than needed to those who thought that that it was a reasonable success for raising a third of what was needed.
These thoughts were not helped by an Iraqi delegation that was focused on presenting a shopping list of projects that would need $88bn in financing. In the end, it was reported that Iraq received pledges of $30bn in loans and guarantees, just over a third of the required total.
Lost in all of this is the significant document “Reconstruction & Development Framework” that the World Bank Group (WBG) prepared with the Iraqi Ministry of Planning (MoP), as well as the IMF’s work on Iraq and its presentation at the conference.
The first is a comprehensive analysis of the reconstruction requirements across all sectors of the country and provides plans for short-, medium- and long-term reconstruction needs within the framework of a long-term recovery for the country. In combination with the second, they provide the structure for funding the reconstruction effort.
The key takeaway is that the Government of Iraq (GoI) is realistic in its expectations that external sources of financings will be small, and therefore it expects to utilize its own resources over the next five years for the required reconstruction.
Mr Tabaqchali (@AMTabaqchali) is the CIO of the AFC Iraq Fund, and is an experienced capital markets professional with over 25 years’ experience in US and MENA markets. He is a non-resident Fellow at the Institute of Regional and International Studies (IRIS) at the American University of Iraq-Sulaimani (AUIS). He is a board member of the Credit Bank of Iraq.
Article Credit: iraq-businessnews.com (Special Thanks to Charles Bright)
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By Jack Detsch for Al-Monitor. Any opinions expressed are those of the author, and do not necessarily reflect the views of Iraq Business News.
Pentagon Stops Budgeting for Peshmerga Salaries
The Trump administration’s budget proposal for next fiscal year does not include peshmerga salaries even as the Pentagon aims to continue training the Kurdish force.
The Department of Defense had requested $365 million in stipends for the year that ends Sept. 30 but did not spend the money after negotiations to extend an expiring memorandum of understanding broke down in September. Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi had agreed to pay the peshmerga wages in October, but a US Inspector General report released earlier this month said the Kurdish fighters still hadn’t been paid
“Those documents do not specifically refer to training/stipends for the peshmerga,” Pentagon spokesman Eric Pahon told Al-Monitor in an email today. Lawmakers have yet to weigh in on the $716 billion Pentagon request for fiscal year 2019.
Instead, President Donald Trump’s budget request for the year starting Oct. 1 seeks $850 million to train and equip Iraqi troops with a focus on bolstering the Iraqi Security Forces with Ranger brigades. As part of that amount, the peshmerga force of about 150,000 could still be eligible for up to $290 million in so-called operational sustainment funds aimed at preventing the Iraqi government from becoming more reliant on Iran and Russia, according to budget language.
The shift in focus by the United States comes as the Iraqi Kurds have been marginalized by Baghdad following the Kurdistan Regional Government’s (KRG) controversial independence vote in September. As a result, US and peshmerga officials are at odds over how much assistance is actually getting through to Erbil since Baghdad has to sign off on any weapons shipments to the Kurdish troops.
“Right now, the Iraqis are stopping a lot of stuff,” said Michael Knights, a researcher at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy.
Though the Pentagon acknowledges that the peshmerga proved helpful to the US-backed coalition until the beginning of the Mosul fight in 2016, the Kurdish force has faced difficulties in assimilating US equipment, experts say, in part because the peshmerga relies on its own training structures and tactical formations. The US-led coalition said in December that 5,200 American advisers in Iraq had stopped advising the peshmerga as the Pentagon appears set to draw down its presence.
Over the past year, the United States also sold the Iraqi government nearly $300 million worth of military equipment to outfit two infantry brigades with M-16 rifles, .50 caliber machine guns, up-armored Humvees and mine-resistant vehicles. That was cut down from an initial effort to outfit four peshmerga brigades — each typically between 4,000 to 8,000 troops — including a border unit.
“Peshmerga brigades didn’t fit a US brigade set,” Knights told Al-Monitor. “A lot of the German equipment went everywhere. Gucci German assault rifles got given to commanders and bodyguards.”
The US-led force has trained 26,000 peshmerga over the course of the anti-IS mission that began in 2014. Even though the funding stream appears to be in a winnowing process, the United States and the KRG remain engaged in high-level dialogues, with the peshmerga still playing an important role as the Pentagon aims to curb the influence of Iran-backed Shiite militias that are enmeshed in the Iraqi Security Forces.
In meetings in Washington in November, the head of the KRG’s Department of Foreign Relations called for the United States to do more to encourage talks with Baghdad and keep tenuous supply lines open on the border, including the Fish Khabur crossing, a critical lifeline for the 2,000 US troops serving in Syria.
“We already have border guards,” Falah Mustafa told Al-Monitor in a November interview. “Border guards are wearing Iraqi uniforms, they are on the payroll of the Iraqi government, they are getting instructions and directives from the Iraqi government in Baghdad.”
(Picure Credit: David B. Gleason)
Article Credit: al-monitor.com (Special Thanks to Paul Moseley)
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Central Bank of Iraq Auctions $194,883,291 on 22 February 2018
Baghdad (IraqiNews.com) The Central Bank of Iraq (CBI) currency auction on February 22 registered $194,883,291 in sales, a 10.90% volume increase from the US $175,734,132 sold by Iraqi Dinar, credit and transfer at the previous auction held on February 21.
The latest auction was attended by 45 banks and 9 remittance companies. The same institutions attended the auction held on February 22 compared to the previous auction.
Data for the February 22 auction was made public by CBI Announcement Number 3641.
Dollar sales in the in the period January 1, 2018 to February 22, 2018 saw an increase of -1% compared to the sales of US $5.57 billion in the same period in 2017. The total amount of US currency sold by CBI in the calendar year 2017 was US $15.7 billion.
An analysis of the monthly dollar sales by CBI since January 2016 reveals highly fluctuating volumes. During the period from January 2016 to February 2018, sales of US dollars averaged US $1.81 billion per month. Peak volumes were reached in May this year when sales touched US $2.3 billion.
Article Credit: https://www.iraqinews.com/business-iraqi-dinar/central-bank-of-iraq-auctions-194883291-on-22-february-2018/
BGG ~ I will continue to highlight the regular auctions. After recently asking around about the reasons for the “tightening” of the supply of Dinar in the U.S… one of the main reasons I got was the fewer and fewer auctions. Wait – what?!? They are still having fairly robust auctions.
So, obviously, that’s not true… so what is it?
Another possibility is this MASSIVE financial embargo on Kurdistan, provided this was where currency was coming from.
I have also heard of a couple of major players talking about having money in – or being able to get money out of Kurdistan… all baloney. Kurdistan has been under very tight controls since snubbing the world diplomats with this sham vote pushed by Barzani.
Why was it a sham vote? Simple fact: you can’t just take what isn’t yours to take just because you vote on it.
Back to my previous rebuttal – anyone who actually had money in Kurdistan would have either gotten it out or is REALLY “up a creek”… likely just more B.S.
So…
1) Fewer auctions?
2) Tightening borders (fewer exports)?
3) More demand? I sincerely doubt it.
4) IMHO and most likely, the supply here in the U.S. from disgruntled sellers, which is likely where the bulk of the U.S. supply really comes from, and current interested buyers has finally reached a point of parity where the “supply – demand” scales are more evenly balanced.
Hence, the price goes up.
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Abadi: secret agreements surround the issue of increasing the proportion of the Kurdistan region of the budget
Haidar al-Abadi, on Thursday, expressed surprise at the insistence of Parliament to postpone the adoption of the budget, while addressing the demands to increase the proportion of Kurdistan region of the budget, saying that the matter is surrounded by secret agreements, and this is not allowed.
Abadi told a news conference during his visit to the provincial council of Basra on February 22, 2018, that he hoped the House of Representatives would approve the budget as soon as possible. “I do not know why everything is important to MPs except the budget, which should have been approved last year, .
He added: “I am surprised by the demands of conflicting interests in delaying the adoption of the budget, and surprised by claims to increase the proportion of Kurdistan, it seems to be secret agreements, and this is not allowed, and we are keen on our citizens in the Kurdistan region and Basra and in all Iraq, Unit”.
“It is not right to give a province or province a percentage of the budget exceeds the maturity; because the political pressure on me, and perhaps some of the parties have interests here or there, but the money belongs to the Iraqi people, and to be true we must be fair and fair in Distribution of wealth “.
He pointed out that the Council of Ministers “distributed wealth according to the proportion of the population in each province, and in the future we will add the elements of need and disadvantaged, the more deprived province gets additional allocated ratios,” adding that “at the present population ratios are clear and uncontested, and we have a formula and mechanism to determine the need Conservative and deprived “.
As for the province of Basra, Abbadi said that “the province needs to care and provide services, and Basra from the safe areas in Iraq, but the weapon is widespread and used in the wrong place; the parties resort to the conflict in the conflict to engage with each other, Outside the framework of the state, at the beginning was a pretext to keep the arms, but now Vantv, and therefore must be disarmed. ”
Abadi expressed surprise at “provoking some politicians when addressing them to the issue of disarmament,” noting that “there is an interest in the robbery and kidnapping.”
“The imposition of the law in Basra is essential. We do not want to provoke people. We must respect them in full and not pressure the peaceful people. The goal is to take those who are wanted to justice and law, and also disarm outside the state.”
The Vice-President of the Republic Nuri al-Maliki said, Saturday, December 32 last, that Baghdad is obliged to give the region share of 17% of the federal budget, provided that the region provides the output of oil to the state budget, while pointing out that even if the region granted 100 barrels to Baghdad Only, he must get his rights.
“The Kurdish people are our people. I have repeatedly said to the brothers the Kurdish leaders, if what is happening is spent on the Kurdish people and God, even if the increase is not a loss, because the Kurds have hurt history and sacrificed in the past,” Maliki said in a televised interview with the Kurdish station Rudaw. Anfal and chemical and in the mountains, but when we became in the State Constitution and organized relations between the components and between the provinces and the region, which took an official dimension.
Article Credit: asrarmedia.com (Special Thanks to Vernell)
BGG ~ The last two paragraphs are pure political posturing by Maliki. He is publicly angling to make an alliance with the Kurds. He’s essentially saying – he’ll give what Abadi won’t. The bottom line is – he and Barzani have (apparently) been in bed together and splitting the profits from smuggled oil for years. In exchange for Barzani’s back-door political support, Maliki also allowed Barzani and the Kurds and Peshmerga to expand and run roughshod over their fragile union. Abadi looks to be trying to put everything back together.
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Kaperoni (Dinar Guru) – Article: “Source: The increase in the depreciation of the dollar against the dinar due to the actions of the Central Bank” …the Market Rate will never be less than the Official Rate at the CBI. And the CBI cannot stop the auctions until there is an alternative for international commerce. I believe I am correct, the 2% rule is calculated off the Official Rate plus CBI commissions (1182 + 8 dinar commissions X .02 = 23.8) which puts it at 1213 to $1. How long the CBI must wait may be subject to IMF review. We know they were not giving them an exception on the spread, but they may give them an exception on time (90 day rule) due to the urgency of maintaining stability and encouraging investment.
[Based on Kaperoni’s 8 dinar commission rule some feel the percentage difference between the official rate and market rate needs to be 1214 to meet the IMF 2% stipulation. However, no one seems to be clear on how to calculate the number – opinions range from 1203 to 1214]
BGG ~ P.S. I did tell Kap this would happen. When they are ready, like it or not, they will make what exceptions they have to and BOOM – there it will be!!
Read more: http://www.dinarupdates.com/observer/
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Randy Koonce (Dinar Guru) – All the ‘gurus’ have watched since the first of the year for the RV to happen. What we have all learned is that the revaluation of the Iraqi Dinar has become the biggest political football in history. And that is why we are still waiting. However, it appears that the time has come for Abadi to finally step up to the plate. Based on information I am receiving, we believe that the RV will (should) take place within the next 2 weeks. Great pressure is being brought to bear to make this happen. Everyone – including the people who can make this happen – are tired of waiting for this to happen. And ‘they’ are pushing. So. We are in a 2 week window. Right now. [post 1 of 3]
Read more: http://www.dinarupdates.com/observer/
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Barzani and McMaster discuss political and security developments and Washington’s bilateral relations with Erbil
In his first meeting after his arrival in the US capital …
News / Kurdistan – In his first meeting with US administration officials after his arrival in the US capital Washington, the adviser of the Security Council of Kurdistan Region pleased Barzani, on Thursday, with US National Security Adviser Herbert McMaster, bilateral relations between the Kurdistan Region and the United States, and recent political and security developments.
Representative of the Kurdistan Regional Government in Washington Statement Sami Abdul Rahman, written on her account on the site of social networking , in connection with the meeting: «There has been fruitful dialogue on the latest political and security developments, economic development, as well as the development of relations between the Kurdistan Region and the United States».
The adviser of the Security Council of the Kurdistan Region pleased Barzani arrived in the United States on Thursday afternoon.
Barzani is expected to hold meetings with several senior US officials in the White House and members of Congress, discuss the region’s relations with the United States, and the outstanding problems between Erbil and Baghdad.
Barzani’s visit to Washington follows his participation from 16-18 February in the Munich International Security Conference.
This visit is the first official high-ranking official to Washington since the referendum on independence from Iraq, which was conducted by the Kurdistan region on 25 September last and won an overwhelming majority in favor of independence.
Article Credit: basnews.com
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Randy Koonce (Dinar Guru) – …there is a very real reason why the RV has not happened years ago. So, some history…One of the things that we learned was the fact that Obama was never going to let it happen as long as he was president. We learned that half of Obama’s cabinet wanted to release the RV and the other half agreed with Valerie Jarrett, who did not want anyone in the US to participate in this blessing. …So, between Maliki’s regime and Valarie Jarrett’s influence over Obama, the previous eight years were a total waste of time from the RV standpoint. Now that Trump is in office, he very much wants this done, but does not want Iran to benefit. President Trump is working hard to get this done, because he knows many of us are holding dinar, and wants to allow us to bless and grow the economy of the USA. You’ve probably heard the phrase…Make American Great Again? [post 2 of 3]
Read more: http://www.dinarupdates.com/observer/
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Randy Koonce (Dinar Guru) – In addition, it is being rumored that Abadi has been trying to solicit money from various countries, in return for Dinar. But, some of that money would go to him, and not Iraq. If true, this may be the reason Abadi has been dragging his feet on ‘pushing the button’. He could be wanting to make one last attempt to feather his own nest a little better. However, not only the Trump administration but these other countries as well, are putting tremendous pressure on Abadi to get this done…Or Else! …In the event that we do not see this finished in the next 2 weeks – don’t despair. They do not have to wait for another year. This will get gone – this year. …the best thing we have going right now is a Very – Determined – President. We are close…Every large bank will exchange…RELAX the RV is coming…Check www.cbi.iq every day to see if it has changed…Breathe… [post 3 of 3]
Read more: http://www.dinarupdates.com/observer/
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Baghdad freezes investigation process of the fall of Mosul
An investigation into how the city of Mosul fell to Daesh has stalled. A senior official in the Iraqi government told The New Arab that “the investigation into the fall of Mosul has now been frozen.” He explained that the investigation directly blames former Prime Minister Nouri Al-Maliki, a senior aid Tariq Najm, former Defence Minister Saadoun Al-Dulaimi, former Undersecretary of the Ministry of the Interior Adnan Al-Asadi, as well as senior military commanders in the Iraqi army, senior officers of the Federal Police and local officials.
Thus far the investigation has taken eight months and heard 100 testimonies from politicians and military leaders.
The senior official stressed that “the investigations and the statements of officers and reviews of recorded telephone conversations between the military leadership in Mosul, before its fall, and the office of Al-Maliki, reveal the existence of what is more likely a plan. All the details of Daesh members’ movements and their advance were being sent to Maliki, without his order.”
The official said that the investigation had show that al Maliki had sought to use the the fall of Mosul and its recapture as a boost to his political campaign. However the army quickly collapsed and his plan failed. In fact the flow militants into the country from Syria led to the a total loss of control on the part of the government and Iraqi forces.
However, he stressed that the investigation will not be resumed again during the government of Haider Al-Abadi. This isn not because of insufficient evidence but because the investigation of the case targeted very senior people.
In late 2014, the Iraqi parliament voted to form a committee to investigate the causes of the fall of Nineveh province, at the request of 89 deputies. Moreover, in August 2015, it recommended the trial of 70 security and political officials, including Al-Maliki, holding them responsible for the escape of Iraqi forces from Mosul and Daesh control over it.
The report of the investigation committee included testimonies of military leaders who confirmed that Al-Maliki and the Governor of Nineveh at that time, Atheel Al-Nujaifi, were responsible for the fall of Mosul.
A Nineveh province council member, Hossam Al-Abar, stressed that “political compromises and factional and partisan interests led to the delay in resolving the issue of the fall of Mosul, and the absence of its results till now.”
He explained to The New Arab, “the government of Nineveh demanded, more than once, during meetings with Al-Abadi and Speaker of Parliament, Salim Al-Jabouri, for pressure on the judiciary and hold those who are convicted to account”.
He added that “the delayed announcement of the result of the investigation document, indicates the existence of considerable political pressure.”
In June, 2017, the Iraqi MP Abdul Rahman Alloizi, revealed the existence of political persons “more powerful than the law” who are involved in the incident, noting that “the absence of political will to hold accountable the involved parties, especially that those in charge are prominent figures and from all types and sects, made everyone silent and unwilling to advocate justice.”
A member of a coalition of state law, led by Al-Maliki, Iskander Watut, considered that “the investigation of the fall of Mosul neglected the names of political and military figures.” He explained to The New Arab that “the authors of the document neglected for example the statement of the Chief of Staff of the Iraqi army, Babaker Zebari, who said that he ordered the withdrawal of military forces from Mosul, as well as not directing enough charges in the incident to the President of Iraqi Kurdistan, Masoud Barzani.
He added “I am not defending Al-Maliki, but to holding him fully responsible is illogical. It was not his fault, it is rather the fault of his military counsellor, Farouk Al-Araji, who failed to warn Al-Maliki of the danger of the breakthrough that occurred in Mosul.” He stressed that “the file is currently in the hands of the judiciary, and we trust it, but the follow-up committee of the case which is appointed by the Iraqi parliament is acting with a clear political bias.”
At a time when MPs and political figures believe that the investigation document is in the hands of the Supreme Judicial Council, the supreme administrative authority responsible for Iraqi judicial affairs, a legal source from the Council confirmed that “the document was only handed over by the investigation committee to be checked, as the incident of Daesh’s occupation of Iraqi areas, where there are numerous security members, and the withdrawal of the army from Mosul is a military crime.”
The source, who spoke on condition of anonymity, added that “the fall of Mosul is a military crime, and the process of trial must be carried out before the Iraqi military courts,” noting that “the ordinary judiciary has nothing to do with this case.”
Article Credit: middleeastmonitor.com (Special Thanks to Charles Bright)
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Some interesting headlines…
Deputy calls for the formation of an international coalition against corruption in Iraq
Council of Ministers adopt recommendations to ensure a sound investment climate in Iraq
For these reasons, the Marshall Plan is not implemented in Iraq
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Float the Iraqi dinar and stop the auction currency is the only solution of the Iraqi economy.
Under Conference : Kuwait , the results of which are discouraging to solve the problem economic Iraqi especially after the devastation resulting from the grinding war on terrorism must think of radical solutions and take advantage of other peoples experiences
I want to point to the experience of two states at the time Alhadrohee experience Masrafiqirh powered and experience its Vnzula oil – rich experience sister bank to float the Egyptian pound in 2016, which produced Mayati after only one year of floatation first year float ..
Egypt stronger “numbers” after the liberation of the exchange rate .. cash reserve jumps from 19 to 36.5 billion dollars .. and $ 56 billion to save imports .. and $ 13.7 billion Surplus payments .. and 17.3% higher transfers abroad…
Float the currency , ” an economic term means that the exchange rate against the dollar or any foreign currency away from any interference from the government or the central bank in determining its price, and the associated value of supply and demand
Yes to float the Egyptian currency has led to decrease the price of the pound against the dollar from about 9 to 17 but still the state provides the necessary materials and medicines for citizens did not increase the rate of poverty with the knowledge that Egypt imports most of its need – oil from abroad , which is a very large Obeie
Second example is the state of Venezuela , the state is very rich in oil and is now on the verge of bankruptcy where the conduct of its economy in a similar manner to what is in Iraq at the time of The present and the currency “Venezuela” is now at 3 prices for the exchange, according to the price of central bank exchange rate, the price on the black market, the price used in exports with a large corruption in the work of the Central Bank of
Iraq is on its way with no doubt the Venezuelan example , that measures and radical reforms are similar not taken what happened in Egypt with a big difference to Msalkhh Iraq and hwan Iraq earned from oil exports in the month of December 2017 will alone $ 4-6 billion means about 76 billion Dola year benefits desired from the floating currency with some Alajrouat that resemble Maatkhzth Egypt with the presence of transparency
will increase the central bank reserves amounting up to more than 40 – 50 carefully Dollars in one year
(Masrasttaat increase the central bank ‘s reserves by more than 16 billion in one year) and can this amount available start for major energy projects and water desalination projects , agricultural and construction of hospitals and factories and by international companies sober and will pay for these projects from oil imports without waiting to on foreign investment and this process will provide hundreds of thousands and even millions of jobs for unemployed Iraqis
( the foreign investor foreign workers will come more often , as happened with the oil companies) and foreign investor even if it came at the present time will benefit from the auction sale of the existing currency is currently the result The damage to the Iraqi economy as is the case with mobile phone companies, but if you stop the auction currency impact will be in the interest of Iraq , even with foreign investor
What damage the possible risks in the case of the floating currency of course there is a risk of low currency Iraqi, but for employees who exceed their income from $ 1000 will be the damage is limited and only at the beginning and only the value of purchasing materials perfectionism but will be offset by electricity, hospitals, medical equipment, medicines, roads, water improvement and card Altamonah and there is a potential for a greater number of family members are more job opportunities, but when you start the economy and Planter plants Iraq U – turn will be a drop in the currency news out of date
this process can reduce the rampant corruption and companies unreality It is possible that the Iraqi economy turns into one of the largest developing economies , and
in any case can go back to sell the currency once again after a year or two years if it was not written for this process success and I do not think the piece and the people of Egypt Asalo
BGG ~ Some interesting stuff out there right now…
As I talked about, with the send-off Abadi got at Davos, I had figured this Kuwait Conference wouldn’t go quite the way everyone was thinking. I said as much.
There wasn’t much in the way of “hand-outs” directly to the government of Iraq. There were some commitments and some direct loans (if they want them).
However, loans will weigh down their future budgets (is their concern)… I get the impression they were mainly after free money.
Oh well…
On the other hand, I am still encouraged. In fact, this recent article:
…”Float the Iraqi dinar and stop the auction currency is the only solution of the Iraqi economy”…
…shows us a couple of things:
1) While there seems to be some resistance – from somewhere in the GOI to a move with the currency, where that is or why it is, I am unsure…
2) …there also appears those on the other side of the fence, I am assuming those opposed to corruption and the corrupt processes… are putting pressure on the first group to do something, other than just fish around for free money. Such is noted in the above article.
On a side note, and relating to “fishing around” for free money… there did appear to be something of a start to rounding up corrupt political figures in an effort to reclaim “ill-gotten gains”. As an additional note: Reported in Baghdad recently, it is implied such a push must include Maliki and his henchmen if such a move is to be recognized by the world (and Iraqis) as a genuine effort.
While a float may or may not be what they (or you and I) had envisioned, they just may well do something like this before they do nothing at all. Like I have said all along – I don’t really care how it starts… just that it does and they GET TO IT!!
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Click this link to join the DU “private” FaceBook Group…
https://www.facebook.com/groups/571383766355188/
(go here and ask to join… then add some Dinar Friends!!)
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Post RV Checklist (it’s getting to be that time!! Listen up!!)
Dos and Don’ts of Windfall Wealth:
Treat it like a PowerBall win
– Tell no one, not even family. If you must talk, do so with one who is already in the know.
– Don’t run out & buy new “stuff”. People notice.
– Get an unpublished number and give it out very sparingly.
– Get a tax accountant you can trust to make sure the IRS is satisfied (Certified Opinion is something to look into) and pursue asset protection…
Read Complete List: http://www.dinarupdates.com/showthread.php?18519-The-Post-RV-Checklist-and-Flashback-documents&p=128477#post128477
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