Trump receives recommendation to extend US forces in Iraq until 2029
Trump receives recommendation to extend US forces in Iraq until 2029Shafaq News/ The New Line Institute, an American think tank specializing in political and military affairs, recommended that the Trump administration extend the presence of US forces in Iraq until 2029, warning of the danger of a sudden withdrawal to the capabilities of Iraqi security forces and efforts to combat ISIS.
The website stated in a report translated by Shafaq News Agency, “Following a sharp regional escalation that severed ties with Iran and its proxies in the Middle East, the United States finds itself in a new strategic position in Iraq and Syria, where Iranian influence and capabilities have suffered a severe blow. With the rapid and sudden departure of the Assad regime, allied with Tehran, and the retreat of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps units and forces loyal to it during Israeli strikes, new opportunities loom for American interests in the region.”
The report added, “With Iran’s grip on Damascus and Baghdad weakening—as evidenced by a sharp decline in Iranian and Iranian-backed militia strikes on US assets and partners—the United States and its partners in the Global Coalition to Defeat ISIS face fewer distractions and more room to improve the capabilities of their local partners.”
ISIS is lurking in Iraq
The report indicated that “ISIS fighters have increased their momentum in the Syrian desert in preparation for a return across the border into Iraq, a concern that has prompted the Iraqi federal government to sound the alarm and seek a long-term security partnership with the United States.” It explained that “Baghdad has already expressed initial interest in extending the US timetable for military withdrawal from Iraq, adding three years to the already vague withdrawal plan to hedge against Iran and sudden instability.”
He continued: “The United States has long viewed the rapid timetable for withdrawal from Iraq as an opportunity for Iran, ISIS, and other malign regional actors, jeopardizing regional stability and human security. Washington also has a difficult history with hasty withdrawals from counterterrorism missions.”
He noted that “decision-makers are still haunted by memories of the failed withdrawal from Afghanistan in 2021, in addition to the fact that just three years after US forces concluded their combat mission and withdrew from Iraq, they found themselves returning to the country to fight a new terrorist organization that exploited the vacuum left by US forces.”
He explained that “the second Trump administration represents the beginning of an ambiguous chapter for the American forward presence in the Levant. The new administration has repeatedly expressed its desire to transfer responsibility for regional security in the Middle East to its partner, Israel, and to carry out an immediate military withdrawal. Given its skepticism about the usefulness of a small American forward presence in Iraq and Syria for Washington’s interests, it is likely that President Donald Trump will authorize a rapid withdrawal of American forces from Iraq and Syria.”
The report stressed that “policymakers in Washington and their partners abroad must assess the scenarios that will unfold following the US withdrawal, including how civilian and military missions outside the international coalition, such as the NATO mission in Iraq, will be able to survive on their own, how local forces such as the Iraqi Security Forces and the Syrian Democratic Forces will be able to repel threats from ISIS and pro-Iranian militias without US assistance, and how external actors may seek regional competition or political influence in place of a long-term US presence and partnership.”
Recommendations to stay
The report recommended that Washington seek to “diversify its security influence in Iraq beyond its military presence and capacity-building efforts with Iraqi military forces, and seek to revive cooperation in law enforcement, counternarcotics efforts, border security initiatives, and other areas of coordination.” It noted that “facing a potential US withdrawal from Iraq and Syria or an extension of the withdrawal schedule until 2029, NATO and the European Union should coordinate with Iraqi security forces to develop a strategy for their future presence in Iraq and identify gaps that their missions can fill as the fight against ISIS draws to a close.”
He noted that “with the possibility of withdrawal, the United States should seek greater coordination with other military and civilian capacity-building missions, such as the NATO mission in Iraq and the European Union civilian mission in Iraq, as a sudden US military withdrawal would make these operations vulnerable without careful planning.” He explained that “NATO and the European Union should engage in multilateral discussions with the US government, the Iraqi government, and the Kurdistan Regional Government to develop a strategy for their presence in Iraq in the wake of a potential US withdrawal.”
The US report concluded that, “With ISIS attacks and activity increasing since the fall of President Bashar al-Assad’s regime in December 2024, the United States should encourage the Kurdistan Regional Government and the Iraqi federal government to cooperate with the new Syrian administration and the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan to increase cooperation on counterterrorism, intelligence, and security, in anticipation of the possibility of ISIS infiltration from the Syrian desert into Iraq and possibly Jordan.”
Shafaq.com