Warnings of a “salary shock” in May… A 5 trillion deficit puts pressure on government formation and budget approval.

On Thursday, economist Nabil Al-Marsoumi warned of a potential shortfall of up to five trillion dinars in securing employee salaries for the month of May due to the sharp decline in oil sales caused by the disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. He urged the swift formation of the next Iraqi government with full sovereign powers to meet the needs of citizens by preparing the current year’s budget.

Iraq needs more than nine trillion dinars per month, equivalent to (six billion dollars), to secure the salaries of public sector employees and workers, retirees, and to provide social welfare and food basket grants, relying on more than 90% of the financial revenues generated from oil exports, which have decreased by more than 80% after the disruption of energy supply chains in the Strait of Hormuz due to the escalating pace of military escalation in the region.

In this regard, Al-Marsoumi said in an analysis he published that although Iraq continued to export oil through the Strait of Hormuz until the eighth of March, oil revenues did not exceed $1.9 billion, which is equivalent to about 2.5 trillion dinars, indicating that according to these data, the country needs another 5 trillion dinars just to pay next month’s salaries.

He stressed that “it is necessary to expedite the formation of a fully empowered Iraqi government and prepare the 2026 budget in order to give the government the legal cover for internal and external borrowing, discounting remittances at the Central Bank of Iraq, and taking other measures to meet the basic needs of the Iraqi people, especially those related to salaries, social welfare, and the most important services such as water, electricity, and others.”

Iraq is experiencing a state of “political deadlock” as the forces and parties that won the legislative elections held in late 2015 have not been able to complete the constitutional requirements, including electing a new president of the republic and assigning a prime minister to form the next government. The steps achieved so far have been limited to electing the parliament’s leadership only.

Observers warn of the repercussions of this continued delay on the political, economic and service levels in the country, especially in light of the rapidly escalating security and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East region, which necessitate the existence of a fully empowered government to manage the current crises.

Shafaq.com

As confirmed by Shafaq News, Iraqi oil announces the start of overland exports via Syria.

The Iraqi Ministry of Oil confirmed on Wednesday evening that it has begun exporting crude oil by tanker to the Syrian side in preparation for delivering it to export outlets in support of the country’s economy, after the disruption of maritime exports through the Strait of Hormuz.

The ministry stated in a statement received by Shafaq News Agency that “in order to support the national economy and provide financial revenues for the state treasury, the Ministry of Oil has begun exporting black oil by tankers through neighboring Syria.”

The ministry noted “cooperation with the Syrian side, which will ensure the arrival of quantities in Syrian territory to export outlets,” stressing that “export operations will be progressively increasing to boost exported quantities in support of the country’s economy.”

The statement concluded by saying that “the Ministry of Oil had previously resumed exporting crude oil via the Turkish port of Ceyhan.”

For its part, the Syrian Petroleum Company announced on Wednesday evening the arrival of the first batches of Iraqi fuel oil to the tanks of the Banias refinery, coming from the Al-Tanf crossing, where the technical teams began the unloading operations according to the approved operational readiness.

The company explained in a statement received by Shafaq News Agency that this step comes within an integrated supply plan in preparation for preparing the shipments and reloading them onto dedicated sea carriers to transport them to their final export destination, reflecting the efficiency of the infrastructure and the ability of national cadres to manage operations with high efficiency.

The Syrian Petroleum Company announced to Shafaq News Agency on Wednesday the arrival of the first convoy of Iraqi fuel oil (fuel) through the Al-Tanf crossing towards the Banias oil terminal, in a move that it said represents the beginning of a new phase of transit operations.

According to Reuters, the Iraqi oil marketing company SOMO has signed contracts to supply about 650,000 metric tons of fuel oil per month during the period from April to June, with the quantities to be transported overland through Syrian territory.

For his part, the director of the Iraqi Al-Walid district, Mujahid Mardhi Al-Dulaimi, said that more than 150 tankers are currently waiting to enter Syrian territory, expecting that the rate of tanker entry will reach about 500 tankers per day.

Earlier, oil expert and former spokesman for the Ministry of Oil, Assem Jihad, confirmed to Shafaq News Agency that what is being transported through Syrian territory is black oil and not Iraqi crude oil, noting that exporting in this manner is a temporary, forced option and the quantities are limited, and that transport by tankers is expensive compared to pipelines.

He added that SOMO had signed a contract to transport 650,000 metric tons per month during the months of April, May and June, equivalent to about 4.85 million barrels per month.

Crude oil is oil extracted directly from the fields before refining, while black oil is a heavy product resulting from refining operations and is often used as an industrial fuel. It has a lower value and higher transportation costs compared to crude oil.

Iraq announced on Tuesday the start of Iraqi oil exports by land through the Al-Walid border crossing with Syria, with the passage of 101 oil tankers heading to the port of Banias, with a total capacity of about 3.2 million liters of crude oil.

The move comes amid regional tensions and disruptions to maritime exports through the Strait of Hormuz, prompting the adoption of land exports as a limited alternative to ensure the continued flow of crude oil.

Shafaq.com

The US embassy warns of possible attacks in central Baghdad within 48 hours.

The US embassy in Baghdad warned on Thursday of the possibility of attacks by “Iranian-backed militias” in the center of the capital within 24 to 48 hours, urging US citizens to leave Iraq “immediately”.

The embassy said in a security alert posted on its official social media account that “Iraqi terrorist militias allied with Iran may be planning attacks in central Baghdad within the next 24 to 48 hours,” noting that these groups may target American citizens and US-related interests inside Iraq, including businesses, universities, diplomatic facilities, energy infrastructure, hotels, and airports.

She added that potential attacks could also target Iraqi institutions and civilian targets, noting that militias have “targeted Americans for kidnapping” in previous incidents.

The embassy stated that the Iraqi government “has not been able to prevent terrorist attacks” that occur within or originate from Iraqi territory, noting that some members of those groups may carry identification documents claiming they are employees of the Iraqi government.

She confirmed that the US mission in Iraq is continuing its work despite the mandatory departure of some staff, in order to provide assistance to American citizens, while warning against going to the embassy in Baghdad or the consulate in Erbil because of “ongoing security risks, including missiles, drones and rockets.”

The embassy renewed its Level 4 travel warning, stressing: “Do not travel to Iraq for any reason. Leave immediately if you are there.”

The embassy accompanied its warning with an illustrative image bearing the phrase “Travel Warning: Level 4 – Do Not Travel,” directing the message to American citizens to leave Iraq and avoid traveling there.

Shafaq.com

Amid US absence, 36 countries meet to reopen the Strait of Hormuz

Some 36 countries are meeting on Thursday in an effort to exert diplomatic and political pressure aimed at reopening the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most vital shipping lanes, which has been disrupted by the US-Israeli war against Iran, in the absence of the United States from these efforts.

British Prime Minister Keir Starmer said that “the virtual meeting, chaired by British Foreign Secretary Yvette Cooper, will assess all possible diplomatic and political actions that can be taken to restore freedom of navigation, ensure the safety of stranded ships and seamen, and resume the movement of vital goods.”

Iranian attacks on commercial vessels, and threats of more, have brought shipping in the waterway linking the Gulf to the rest of the world’s oceans to a near standstill, shutting down a key route for global oil flows and driving crude prices sharply higher.

US President Donald Trump had said that “securing the Strait of Hormuz is not America’s job,” and called on US allies to “go get their own oil.”

No country appears willing to attempt to open the strait by force while the fighting continues and Iran has the ability to target ships using anti-ship missiles, drones, attack boats and sea mines.

Starmer had said on Wednesday that “military planners from an unspecified number of countries will meet soon to discuss how to ensure the security of navigation after the fighting stops.”

Shafaq.com

After an 11-year closure, Iraq and Syria officially reopen the Al-Walid border crossing.

The head of the Border Ports Authority, Lieutenant General Omar Adnan Al-Waeli, inaugurated the Al-Walid border crossing between Iraq and Syria on Thursday, after it had been closed for more than 11 years.

The reopening ceremony of the crossing took place in the presence of the head of the Syrian General Authority for Ports and Customs, Qutaiba Ahmed Badawi, and the Director General of the General Authority of Customs in Iraq, Thamer Qasim Daoud, in addition to a number of security leaders and agencies working at the border crossings.

The crossing witnessed, in its first moments of opening, the entry of oil tankers loaded with (fuel oil) exported from Iraq to Syria, in a scene that reflects the return of life to an “important” economic artery that had stopped since 2014 as a result of the security conditions that the region witnessed.

Al-Waeli confirmed in a press statement on the sidelines of a field tour of the crossing that the government is proceeding with the rehabilitation and development of border crossings according to the highest technical and administrative standards, in order to ensure the smooth flow and continuity of work, and to raise the readiness of the crossing to receive trade and travelers.

For his part, the head of the Syrian General Authority for Ports and Customs explained that they are seeking to expedite the reopening of the (Al-Yarubiyah/Rabia) port in order to enhance economic cooperation between the two countries, stressing their readiness to open it on the first of next May, confirming the start of the first convoys of Iraqi oil tankers to officially enter through the Al-Walid port towards the Banias oil refinery.

Al-Waeli, in turn, pointed out that the border crossings represent Iraq’s economic gateway to neighboring countries, especially Syria, and contribute to strengthening bilateral relations and enhancing joint economic cooperation, as well as being an important financial resource for the governorates within the Border Crossings Law, which positively impacts reconstruction projects and infrastructure development.

Shafaq.com

Powerful forces are searching for alternatives to Maliki, and the Sudanese alliance is proposing two options for the premiership.

An informed political source reported on Monday that some of the active forces within the Coordination Framework are looking for a candidate to replace Nouri al-Maliki for the position of the next government. While the Framework confirmed its rejection of renewing the mandate of the outgoing Prime Minister, Mohammed Shia al-Sudani, the Reconstruction and Development Alliance put forward two options, with no third, for the leadership of the next government.

The source told Shafaq News Agency that “some of the active forces within the framework are studying a group of names of candidates for the premiership due to the lack of agreement among the framework’s components on a specific candidate after the American veto on the leader of the State of Law Coalition, Nouri al-Maliki, the framework’s official candidate.”

He pointed out that “there is a rejection of the idea of ​​renewing al-Sudani’s term, especially with the arrival of signals from religious leaders who also reject renewal,” indicating that “the coming days will witness intensive activity and continuous meetings to agree on a specific figure acceptable to everyone after vetting the names that will be put forward by some of the influential forces.”

The source continued: “According to the information, if it becomes impossible to pass Mohammed Shia Al-Sudani for a second term, the Reconstruction and Development bloc, which is led by the current Prime Minister, will likely put forward the head of the Reconstruction and Development parliamentary bloc, Bahaa Al-Araji, as an alternative to Al-Sudani, especially since he was a deputy prime minister in a previous government.”

He explained that “the forces of the framework, after agreeing in their meeting last night on the mechanisms for choosing the President of the Republic and setting a final date for the session to name the President, discussed the file of the Prime Ministership in some detail and put forward several names, but one of the active forces in the scene and supporting the renewal of the mandate for Al-Sudani put a veto on all the proposals of the settlement candidates.”

In addition, the spokesman for the Reconstruction and Development parliamentary bloc, Firas Al-Muslawi, confirmed to Shafaq News Agency that “Parliament has set a non-extendable date for the session to name the President of the Republic, and there is a parliamentary agreement to vote on the Kurdish candidate for the presidency if the Kurdish forces agree on one candidate. However, if two candidates are presented for the presidency of the Republic, then the vote under the dome of Parliament is the deciding factor.”

He added that “after the President of the Republic chooses, the latter will task the framework’s nominee to form the government, and we in Reconstruction and Development have no nominee other than Al-Sudani to head the government again, as he achieved success in managing the government.”

Al-Muslawi added: “During the coming period, the Coordination Framework will study several options regarding the candidate for the Prime Ministership, but according to our information, most of the Framework’s forces support renewing Al-Sudani’s second term, as he enjoys acceptance from all parties within the country and international and regional parties. I believe that April 11 will witness the naming of the President of the Republic and the Government in a way that serves the country’s interest.”

Earlier on Monday, the Speaker of Parliament decided to set Saturday, April 11, as the date for holding a session to elect the President of the Republic, calling on the leaders of the political blocs to “bear their responsibilities in completing the constitutional requirements and forming a government capable of facing the challenges.”

The Presidency of the House of Representatives held a consultative meeting Sunday, in which it discussed the ongoing preparations to set a date for a session to elect the new President of the Republic of Iraq during this week in order to end the current political deadlock and proceed with the formation of the next government.

This comes as 220 members of the Iraqi parliament submitted a list of their names and signatures to the parliament’s leadership, demanding that a session be held next Monday to elect the president of the republic.

The coordinating framework that brings together the ruling Shiite political forces in Iraq agreed to postpone deciding on a prime ministerial candidate until after the end of the ongoing regional war between the United States and Israel against Iran, according to a political source who spoke to Shafaq News Agency earlier.

The Coordination Framework had officially nominated Maliki on January 24, a move that opened the door to negotiations to form the new government, but the process faltered as disagreements continued over the election of the President of the Republic, the constitutional entitlement that precedes assigning the candidate of the largest bloc to form the government.

For its part, the framework praised the parliamentary movement to resolve the issue of the presidency, stressing the need to expedite the completion of this constitutional entitlement, and calling on the political forces to resolve it and take advantage of the deadline for holding the session in order to put an end to the state of paralysis.

Shafaq.com

MP: The session to elect the president is not yet decided, and postponement is possible.

Former MP, Arif Al-Hamami, confirmed on Tuesday that the session scheduled for April 11 to elect the President of the Republic has not yet been decided, noting that setting the date came as a result of initial understandings that have not reached the stage of final confirmation.

Al-Hamami told Al-Maalouma that “the Iraqi parliament’s setting of a session on April 11 to elect the president is still not decided among the political forces, and it cannot be confirmed that it will be held at this time,” indicating that “postponing the date remains very possible in light of the lack of mature agreements.”

He added that “Iraq is going through a difficult phase and multifaceted challenges, which requires a clear political decision to complete the formation of the government, starting with the election of the President of the Republic, up to the assignment of the candidate of the largest bloc, in order to proceed with managing the current crises, especially the financial and economic files.”

Al-Hamami indicated that “next week will witness a series of important meetings in Baghdad between various political forces,” noting that “these meetings may lead to outcomes that push towards greater consensus regarding the April 11th session, including the forces of the Coordination Framework, in preparation for electing the President of the Republic and tasking the candidate of the largest bloc.”

Almaalomah.me

In a mysterious mission, Al-Halbousi disappears from sight and leaves the country.

A source in Anbar province revealed on Tuesday that Mohammed al-Halbousi, head of the Progress Alliance, has disappeared from public view amid reports suggesting he has traveled abroad on a mission whose details remain unclear.

The source told Al-Maalomah News Agency that “al-Halbousi left Anbar for Jordan to meet with senior Jordanian officials, in the presence of American officials and leaders from the former Ba’ath Party. His trip is expected to include visits to Turkey and Gulf states to discuss the formation of a new government aligned with the Trump administration.”

The source added that “al-Halbousi held secret and unannounced talks with officials in the Trump administration and Gulf states before heading to Jordan, without disclosing the results,” noting that his movements were characterized by complete secrecy. The source
explained that “influential figures in the central government were aware in advance of al-Halbousi’s visit to establish a long-term political partnership with the United States, the Gulf states, Turkey, and Jordan,” confirming that al-Halbousi traveled overland from Anbar via the Trebil border crossing.

This visit coincided with Israeli-American bombing of Anbar cities, which resulted in the martyrdom and injury of a number of security personnel and civilians, adding further ambiguity to the timing and purpose of the mission.

Almaalomah.me

In numbers… Iraq’s Integrity Commission reveals its annual achievements: Recovering and protecting nearly one trillion dinars

The Federal Integrity Commission announced on Tuesday a “heavy” tally of its oversight and investigative operations during the year, confirming the prevention of waste and the preservation of public funds worth nearly “one trillion Iraqi dinars,” with the issuance of arrest and summons orders that included dozens of ministers and officials.

The Authority stated in its annual report that the total amount of funds that were preserved amounted to (837,094,441,942) dinars and (550,815,321) US dollars, within the framework of its investigative and precautionary procedures aimed at protecting public funds and preventing their waste.

She explained that the number of reports that she considered during the year amounted to (37,175) reports with a completion rate of (85.64%), while the number of criminal cases amounted to (31,355) cases with a completion rate of (73.23%), which reflects the growing volume of work in the investigative field, indicating that the number of summons orders issued amounted to (14,645) orders, including (18) orders against ministers and those of their rank, and (276) orders against those of special ranks and general managers.

The number of arrest warrants reached (3,461) warrants, including (21) warrants against ministers and those of their rank, and (118) warrants against those of special ranks, in addition to issuing (1,950) arrest warrants, and (215) travel ban decisions, including decisions against senior leaders, noting the implementation of (1,555) arrest operations in various governorates, which resulted in the arrest of (671) accused persons caught in the act.

Regarding stalled projects, the Authority identified (116) projects in (10) governorates, with a total value of (946,031,754,995) dinars and (721,191,424) dollars, and (32) criminal cases were opened concerning them.

In the legal field, the Authority confirmed the issuance of (522) non-final judicial rulings of conviction involving (810) convicts, while the rulings that had reached the final level amounted to (370) rulings, and the number of convicts covered by the general amnesty amounted to (1,301) convicts for (666) judicial decisions.

She added that her achievements in the preventive field were represented by receiving (49,060) financial disclosure statements, in which the response rate of the three presidencies was (100%), and the disclosure of (83) cases of conflict of interest, while the total amount of money in which final judicial rulings were issued in cases of illicit gain amounted to (21,035,599,000) Iraqi dinars.

The number of visits conducted by the Authority through its teams to monitor job performance and promote the integrity of work procedures amounted to (734) visits, which included (419) administrative formations, while the number of reports prepared regarding them amounted to (61) reports.

In the field of recovery, the number of files for receiving fugitives that are ready is (78) files, and (55) files are being prepared, while the number of files for recovering smuggled funds that are ready is (56) files, and (139) files are being completed, and (5,947,308,992) Iraqi dinars were recovered from inside Iraq.

Shafaq.com

China confirms that 3 ships successfully passed through the Strait of Hormuz

The Chinese Foreign Ministry announced on Tuesday that three Chinese ships recently crossed the Strait of Hormuz successfully.

Ministry spokeswoman Mao Ning said that “Beijing appreciates the assistance provided by the concerned parties to ensure the safe passage of ships,” stressing that “China will continue to monitor the situation to ensure the safety of navigation.”

Recent shipping tracking data showed that the number of ships crossing the Strait of Hormuz daily, which before the war ranged between 130 and 140 ships, gradually decreased as tensions escalated, until at times it dropped to less than 10 ships a day, and at certain times the crossing was limited to only a few ships, which shipping industry workers described as “a rare development in one of the world’s busiest energy corridors.”

The American-Israeli war on Iran has entered its second month, with raids on Iran continuing, and Iran responding by striking Israeli territory and American military sites in the Middle East.

Tehran had announced on March 11 that it would not allow any oil shipments belonging to the United States or its allies to pass through the Strait of Hormuz, through which about one-fifth of the world’s oil exports pass.

Shafaq.com