Iraqi economist expects oil price to rise to $200 if war extends to Gulf

Shafaq News / Economic expert Nabil Al-Marsoumi expected on Friday that the price of a barrel of oil would rise to nearly $200 if the war in the region expanded to include the Gulf states, and Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz and cut off the flow of about 20 million barrels of oil to global markets daily.

The expert spoke in an analysis published today about the two expected possibilities regarding what he called the coming oil war. He said that the first of them is that Israel will target the Iranian oil export outlets, especially Kharg Island, through which 90% of Iranian oil exports pass. This means eliminating 1.5 million barrels of Iranian oil from the market, which will raise prices by about $5 per barrel to $82.

He added: But it will lead to cutting off the most important sources of Iranian funding, and in this case we will face several scenarios. The first is that OPEC Plus will intervene and cancel voluntary and mandatory production restrictions, which will provide sufficient oil supplies to compensate for the loss of Iranian oil, indicating that this will lead to a decrease in prices and their return to the $70 mark.

He addressed the second possibility, saying: The war may extend to include oil pumping and export stations in the Gulf, which may negatively affect Gulf oil exports, especially Saudi oil exports, which will push oil prices above $100 per barrel.

Al-Marsoumi also pointed out that Iran had previously confirmed that preventing it from exporting its oil to the world also means preventing the exit of oil from the Strait of Hormuz. If Iran closes the Strait of Hormuz, this means cutting off about 20 million barrels per day of global oil supplies, which will push prices to $200 levels, in addition to negatively impacting Gulf gas shipments that pass through the strait.

The Iraqi economic expert continued by saying that the Israeli strike will be limited to hitting oil facilities, especially Iranian refineries, which means taking out 300 to 400 thousand barrels per day of Iranian exports, noting that in this case it will have no significant impact on global oil prices, especially after Libyan oil returns to its previous levels.

Shafaq.com

“Everyone is exposed and the situation is fragile.” The Iraqi government and its factions distance themselves from the regional clash

Shafaq News / The British website “Middle East Eye” reported that the Iraqi armed factions will not target any American interests or military bases in Iraq or Syria until further notice, as these factions and political forces have decided to distance themselves from Israel’s battles with the Lebanese Hezbollah and Iran, fearing that the expansion of the growing regional wars will destroy Iraq and the sites of these forces and factions.

The British report, translated by Shafaq News Agency, quoted Iraqi officials and leaders of armed factions supported by Iran as saying that their focus would instead be on providing humanitarian aid and financial support to civilians affected by the Israeli war on Lebanon.

Nasrallah’s assassination

After the report pointed to the recent escalation in the war, including the assassination of the Secretary-General of the Lebanese Hezbollah, Hassan Nasrallah, and the launching of ballistic missiles by Iran that damaged military bases in Israel, it said that this raised estimates of the possibility of greater Iraqi participation, whether through the regular Iraqi army or various paramilitary groups, but Iraqi officials say that there is a belief that this could cause the collapse of the political, economic and military system in Iraq and the fall of its government.

The report pointed out that Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani held dozens of meetings in recent days with political leaders, leaders of armed factions allied with Iran, and senior security officers.

The report quoted one of Al-Sudani’s advisors as saying that the prime minister sought, during these meetings, to “explain the reality of the situation facing Iraq and the consequences of any Iraqi party getting involved in the ongoing conflict.”

He confirmed that Al-Sudani also met with many Arab and Western diplomats, and spoke with many leaders of neighboring countries, including the Egyptian president, the Emir of Qatar, and the King of Jordan.

According to Al-Sudani’s advisor, he asked them to help “stop the ongoing Zionist aggression on Lebanon and Gaza, which threatens to expand the conflict in the region.”

The report quoted Iraqi officials and faction leaders as saying that they believe that Iraq will be one of four countries that Israel will attack soon, in response to the Iranian missile attack.

After the report said that the dramatic and brutal Israeli attacks on Lebanon and Hezbollah during the past two weeks had delighted the Israeli leadership and the Israelis, it quoted Al-Sudani’s advisor as saying that “the Iranian missiles dispelled their euphoria.”

According to the same advisor, this “means that Israel will certainly respond to this attack, and will inevitably attack Iraq, as well as Syria and Yemen, in addition to some oil sites in Iran,” adding that “Al-Sudani is trying hard to deprive the Israelis of any pretext that can be used to strike Iraq.”

Al-Sudani’s advisor considered that “the political, security and economic situation in Iraq is fragile and will not tolerate adventure from any party, and that any ill-considered action in the coming days will have a high price and could burn everything.”

Possible targets

According to expectations from sources in the armed factions and security services, Israel may attack several targets, including the headquarters of the Popular Mobilization Forces.

The report pointed out that rumors spread last week about Israel preparing a list of 35 targets in Iraq, including the locations and names of political leaders and leaders of armed factions. However, leaders of armed factions and security officials confirmed that there is no indication of the existence of such a list.

The report quoted a senior official in the Popular Mobilization Forces as saying, “Its targets in Iraq are known and clear, as it will attack the camps of some armed factions, in addition to the camps and headquarters of the Popular Mobilization Forces, and it may target some leaders of the armed factions.”

After pointing out that “the only two figures actually targeted are Akram al-Kaabi, the leader of the Hezbollah al-Nujaba Movement, and Abu Hussein al-Muhammadawi, the leader of the Hezbollah Brigades,” the Hashd leader said that the leaders of the other armed factions linked to Iran have replaced their military roles with more political and economic roles, and no longer have any real influence on the armed resistance against Israel.

According to the Popular Mobilization Forces source, “the Israelis and Americans know this and are well aware of it, and they have no interest in targeting them.”

“Islamic Resistance”

The report noted that immediately after the Iranian missile attack ended, the “Islamic Resistance” in Iraq issued a statement confirming that it would not target American interests and military bases in Iraq unless Washington helped Israel attack Iran, or if Iraqi airspace was used to launch Israeli airstrikes, adding that “then all American bases and interests in Iraq and the region will be our target.”

The report quoted a leader of the Hezbollah al-Nujaba movement as saying, “All parties have agreed to stop any military operations at this stage, but if Israel strikes any of them, everyone will respond immediately,” adding that “American and Israeli interests in Iraq and the entire region will be targeted.”

Precautionary measures

The report stated that Al-Sudani had put all Iraqi military forces on high alert since Tuesday evening, while most of the leaders of the armed factions have not appeared in public since then.

The report quoted leaders in the PMF as saying that the leadership of the PMF held a meeting last Monday to discuss the latest developments and ways to secure its offices and forces. According to one of those who attended the meeting, it was agreed to avoid getting involved in the escalating regional conflict, including attacking American forces in Iraq, which they had done repeatedly before the start of this war. They also decided to limit the number of combat elements at their headquarters and to inform the leaders to avoid being there as well.

In addition, the report stated that the leadership of the Popular Mobilization Forces agreed to issue strict instructions to all leaders that all fighters registered with the organization must not be involved in the regional conflict in any way.

The report quoted a source in the meeting as saying, “If they decide to fight, they should not use their fighters registered on the Popular Mobilization Forces’ payroll, or its vehicles or equipment.”

The report indicated that one of the senior commanders, who was present at the meeting, described the situation as “very sensitive, and any mistake, we will all pay the price for,” adding, “We are being targeted, and the locations of our forces, their headquarters, and their weapons depots are exposed and known, so there is no room for any uncalculated action. We are regular forces, so our choice is the government’s choice. It is that simple.”

Shafaq.com

Rafidain Bank announces the collection of more than four trillion dinars electronically for the benefit of 700 government departments

Shafaq News / The government-owned Rafidain Bank announced on Friday that it has collected more than four trillion dinars electronically for the benefit of 700 government departments.

A statement by the bank’s media office, received by Shafaq News Agency, stated that “the number of government departments that have activated the electronic collection system until October 1st has reached more than 700 government departments.”

He explained that “the total amounts that were settled and collected for the benefit of those government departments and deposited in their accounts at Rafidain Bank amounted to more than four trillion dinars.”

He pointed out that “the rate of reliance on payment systems is constantly increasing and new departments will be included soon.”

Shafaq.com

World Bank: Iraq is witnessing a major transformation in improving the business environment

The World Bank confirmed, today, Thursday, that Iraq It is witnessing a major transformation in improving the business environment and has made progress in vital areas such as regulatory frameworks, public services and operational efficiency.

The bank said in a statement that “Iraq is witnessing a major transformation in improving the business environment and has made progress in vital areas such as regulatory frameworks, public services and operational efficiency,” explaining that “Iraq has made significant progress in creating a more stable and business-friendly regulatory framework.”

He added: “Iraq has succeeded in improving the ease of doing business by simplifying company registration processes and eliminating minimum capital requirements,” indicating that “Iraq has made tangible progress in the public utilities sector, which is essential for companies’ operations.”

He pointed out World Bank “The Iraqi government has reduced the time required to access basic services such as electricity and water,” he stressed, adding that “reforms in Iraq have already contributed to reducing operational disruptions and increasing investor confidence in the market.”

He concluded by saying that “Iraq has introduced new regulations in market The work aims to protect workers and enhance market inclusiveness,” noting that “reforms in creating market More flexible and inclusive work made Iraq More globally competitive.”

Alsumaria.tv

Central Bank comments on preparing the budget for next year

Information / Baghdad… The Central Bank of Iraq commented, today, Thursday, on preparing the budget for the coming year.

Central Bank Board Member Ahmed Brihi told Al-Maalouma Agency, “The government must prepare the budget for years based on the average price of a barrel of oil, not for each year.”

He explained, “This measure prevents the Iraqi economy from being affected even if the price of oil reaches $50.”

He added, “It is well known that the prices of oil, minerals and strategic agricultural materials are always changing, so countries whose economies depend on these commodities, including Iraq, must adapt their financial base according to these changes.”

He added, “Since Iraq’s economy still depends on oil by more than 90%, it must prepare its budgets based on the average price of a barrel of oil for a long period and not for each year.”

Almaalomah.me

Dollar trading halted in Anbar due to high exchange rate

Information / Anbar… Exchange offices in Anbar province have refrained from buying and selling the dollar after sudden speculations led to a rise in the exchange rate.

A source in the governorate told Al-Maalouma Agency that “the fluctuation in the exchange rate of the dollar, which rose suddenly, led to exchange offices refraining from trading in the currency.”

He added, “The exchange offices are waiting for the market to stabilize to resume trading in the dollar.”

He explained that “a force from the National Security Service carried out a security operation targeting a number of exchange offices in search of exchange rate speculators.”

He explained, “The exchange rate jumped to 155 thousand dinars for every 100 dollars after it was 150 thousand dinars for every 100 dollars.”

Almaalomah.me

Iraq announces the launch of financial transfers to Türkiye in euros

Shafaq News / The Central Bank of Iraq launched its financial transfers to Türkiye in Euro.

This was announced during the reception of the Governor of the Central Bank of Iraq, Ali Mohsen Al-Alaq, the Ambassador of the Republic of Turkey to Iraq, Anil Bora Inan, with a delegation of representatives of Turkish banks operating in Iraq, according to a statement by the Central Bank of Iraq.

The statement indicated that the meeting coincides with the launch of financial transfers to Turkey, according to a new mechanism carried out in the euro currency and implemented within Turkey through its banks. This mechanism, which is being applied for the first time, will simplify trade coverage operations with high fluidity and speed.

The attendees discussed ways to provide the requirements of the new mechanism in order to make it successful and accommodate the large number of remittances from merchants and the business sector.

The statement pointed out that the bank representatives expressed their readiness to implement the new mechanism and provide the regulatory and supervisory requirements in coordination with the international auditing company. They also explained their efforts in the context of expanding their channels with approved correspondent banks.

For his part, the Turkish ambassador praised the efforts of the Central Bank in managing the process of transformation in external transfers, and the measures taken by the bank to organize and facilitate the transformation processes, praising his meeting with the Governor of the Central Bank of Iraq and the continuous and direct coordination between the Central Bank’s management and authorized banks, according to the statement.

Shafaq.com

KDP links Kirkuk census to implementation of Article 140 to “return displaced Kurds”

The head of the Kurdistan Democratic Party bloc in Kirkuk Provincial Council, Hassan Majeed, confirmed on Saturday the implementation of Article 140 of the Iraqi Constitution according to its legal paragraphs, which will contribute to solving many of the pending problems before conducting the population census in the province, noting that the bloc’s attendance at the provincial council meetings is linked to a decision by the Federal Court.

Majeed told Shafaq News Agency, “Article 140 of the Iraqi Constitution is an article that was included in the constitution to find solutions for the disputed areas according to stages, which are compensation, normalization, and census, as there are hundreds of deportees to this day who have not received their financial compensation, and this means that there are matters that have not been fully implemented in Kirkuk and the rest of the areas in which demographic changes took place by the Baath government.”

He stressed that “Kirkuk has matters that must be taken into consideration by the federal government, as the Kurds were displaced from it by previous governments and more than 4,500 Kurdish villages were destroyed in Kirkuk, its outskirts and the rest of the regions. This means that there are residents who left Kirkuk, and they must be returned to Kirkuk to become part of it, as they are its original inhabitants, for the purpose of including them in the census.”

He added, “The population census is important for any country, including Iraq, because it provides a comprehensive information base for youth, women and children according to their ages, and determines poverty rates and the regions’ need for services and projects. Through it, we know the numbers of residents, buildings and other matters, and this matter is important for everyone.”

Regarding attending Kirkuk Provincial Council sessions, Majeed said, “The issue of our attendance at Kirkuk Provincial Council sessions is linked to a decision by the Federal Court, which is the final arbiter of the decision. There is a team representing the participants in the Kirkuk administration who say that the formation and contracting of the local government was legal, and there is a team in contrast who say that it is illegal, and the court’s decision is what will decide this matter.”

He stressed that “the members of the Democratic Bloc in the provincial council are committed to attending their work in the council and participating in receiving its clients, but they do not participate in the council sessions until the issue is resolved by the Federal Court.”

The head of the third branch of the Kurdistan Democratic Party in Kirkuk, Mohammed Kamal, had demanded last Monday to postpone the population census in the province until Article 140 of the Iraqi Constitution is implemented.

Kamal said in a press conference attended by Shafaq News Agency, “Preparations for conducting the population census are necessary, but the situation in Kirkuk is different and the governorate is not prepared to conduct it. There are displaced people from Kirkuk in the cities of the Kurdistan Region, and in 1988 the Baathist regime demolished 4,500 Kurdish villages and deported their residents to the governorates of the Kurdistan Region.”

Iraq conducted its last population census in 1987, in which all governorates participated, followed by the 1997 census, which was conducted without the participation of the governorates of the Kurdistan Region.

Over the past years, the country has relied on approximate statistical figures issued by unofficial institutions and research centers concerned with this matter, before the Ministry of Planning issued estimates in 2022 that the population of Iraq had reached more than 42 million people.

The census has been delayed over fears of politicization, and has been opposed by ethnic groups in disputed areas such as the Kurdish, Arab and Turkmen-populated city of Kirkuk, which is home to major oil fields, because it could reveal demographics that could undermine their political ambitions.

Shafaq.com

Washington and Baghdad announce the end of the coalition’s military mission in Iraq

Baghdad and Washington announced Friday, the end date of the international coalition’s military mission in Iraq.

According to a joint statement by Baghdad and Washington, “Iraq and the United States of America have a strategic relationship, and as a result of consultations and discussions with the leadership of the international coalition to defeat ISIS and friendly member states, and intensive discussions within the US-Iraq Supreme Military Committee, which has worked diligently and professionally in intensive meetings over the past nine months, and after studying and evaluating the military and security situation in Iraq and the region, it announces the following:

First: Ending the coalition’s military mission in Iraq within the next twelve months, and no later than the end of September 2025, and moving to bilateral security partnerships that support Iraqi forces and maintain pressure on ISIS.

Second: Since Iraq is a key member of the coalition, and in order to prevent the return of the terrorist threat of ISIS from northeastern Syria, and depending on field conditions and consultations between Iraq, the United States, and coalition members, the coalition’s military mission operating in Syria from a platform to be determined by the Supreme Military Council will continue until September 2026.

Third: The Supreme Military Authority is committed to formulating the necessary procedures to achieve what is stated in the above paragraphs, and the timing and mechanisms for their implementation, including procedures to ensure the physical protection of coalition advisors present in Iraq during the transitional period, in accordance with the Iraqi constitution and laws. Practical steps to implement these obligations have begun.

Iraq thanks the coalition for the support and assistance it provided to the Iraqi security forces to confront this common threat and secure the defeat of ISIS on the ground in Iraq, and at the forefront of these countries is the United States of America, which stood with Iraq in difficult circumstances.

The coalition appreciates the role of Iraq and the great sacrifices made by all Iraqi security forces in fighting this terrorist organization that posed a threat to the entire world, and stresses the need to continue all efforts to ensure that the threat from this terrorist organization does not return in any form.

We look forward to strengthening relations between Iraq and the United States, as both countries seek to enhance security assistance and cooperation based on mutual respect, consistent with the U.S.-Iraq Strategic Framework Agreement and the Iraqi Constitution, and to advance an enduring bilateral partnership consistent with the U.S.-Iraq Joint Statement issued during Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani’s visit to Washington, D.C., on April 15-16, 2024, and the U.S.-Iraq Joint Statement following the Second U.S.-Iraq Joint Security Cooperation Dialogue held in Washington, D.C., on July 22-23, 2024.

This historic transition marks a decade since the formation of the coalition military mission in Iraq, and Iraq continues to cooperate with the United States and other coalition members to establish bilateral security relationships where appropriate.

In order to facilitate the safe and orderly conclusion of the international coalition’s military mission, the Government of Iraq affirms its commitment, in line with its international obligations, to protect international advisers present in Iraq at the invitation of the Iraqi Government.

Burathanews.com

Advisor to the Prime Minister rules out a decline in gold prices in the coming period..and explains the reasons

The economic advisor to the Prime Minister, Mazhar Muhammad Salih, ruled out a decline in gold prices in the coming period.

Saleh told Al Furat News Agency: “The global financial markets, including futures markets in particular, are a place or market for information before anything else, and their efficiency is in the sufficiency of their information.

Therefore, they are the vital field in which the forces of financial speculation play their role and look forward to quick profit and avoiding losses when maximizing their wealth and preserving their financial capital accumulation. In this regard, they possess the tools, standards and predictive indicators produced by the aforementioned information markets, so that the forces of speculation can make their decisions according to their predictions about the nature and speed of change in asset cycles witnessed by the oil markets, gold markets and other important metals to avoid loss and maximize profit when managing their investment portfolios.”

He explained that “the shift from short positions to long positions or vice versa in the activity of buying and selling financial assets, especially those related to speculation in raw materials or metals, specifically (gold and oil), is today taking an accelerated form in the speculative activity in these financial markets, as speculators’ holdings change from one moment to another.”

He explained that “any change in the centers of selling {gold and oil} and buying financial assets, especially those linked to assets of oil, gold, other metals and currencies, as their investment decisions today are mostly subject to at least four factors: First, the geopolitical factor, especially the upcoming raging winter war on the Russian-Ukrainian front, second, the dangerous geopolitical situation in the Middle East as a hub for oil and energy in the world, and third, the imminent announcement of the formation of the new international currency system (BRICS), as information shows that the new currency system may adopt the traditional gold standard in the basics of the stability of that international currency (BRICS currency).”

Saleh pointed out that “BRICS countries have an importance in the international economy estimated at about 35% of the global gross domestic product and dominate half of global trade at the same time.”

He continued, “As for the last factor, the petrodollar and its fluctuations with OPEC+ decisions regarding opportunities to discipline the supply of crude oil in the international market, as oil price increases often lead to fluctuations in the value of the dollar and the demand for it for the purposes of financing global trade and oil in particular, which is governed in terms of market value by federal interest rates and the general monetary policy of the United States of America.”

He stressed that “all these factors governed by the growth in the global economy drive the current fluctuations between oil prices, gold prices and other assets, whether instantaneous or directional fluctuations,” noting at the same time that “the cycle of gold assets in their rise and fall is one of the slow cycles, so gold was and still is a safe haven in hedging against unexpected losses and others when maintaining financial wealth. Thus, we may not expect gold prices to fall or a reversal in its price trend during the coming period, despite the daily adaptive fluctuations in the prices of the yellow metal.”

Alforatnews.iq