Dinar Observer Daily

Militiaman – Dinar Guru The process of seating the government and gearing for the 2022 budget is slated for from now through this next week…with what we have witnessed over the past couple years, months and even days, we have never been closer based off hindsight …imo…BTW…April 2nd, 2022 was the first Day of Ramadan. This is  about the time frame Sadr gave [40 days to form government] that gets it to the 10th of May per the Islamic Calendar. Sadr has summoned the FM and CBI Governor 05/12/2022.. I can imagine the CBI having a move soon.

Pimpy – Dinar Guru  Article:   “PUK: Barham Saleh is a figure acceptable to the framework and the current”.  Quote:   “The Patriotic Union of Kurdistan announce the acceptance of Saleh for presidency of the Republic by the Coordination Framework and the Sadrist Movement” Wow!  Something they could agree on…congrats to Saleh as long as he gets in there.  But we’ll see.  Remember the person that  actually runs the country is the prime minister…

Militiaman – Dinar Guru  In my view this one has rate implications. The emergency food support bill is what many countries deem as security issues and interestingly enough, there is a food law being talked about in Iraq and even the UST has talked of this topic too. If this is the same thing, there is a rate to be had with it or behind it. We have heard that food security is important and a security issue and a reason the Federal Court Ruled that the present Caretaker Government can get things passed if need be for the benefit of the people, therefore, they will need to secure it with purchase power., i.e., a new exchange rate.

Pimpy – Dinar Guru  It always feels like we’re right on the edge of getting there.  It looks like things are going in the right direction and then there’s always these little hurdles but at at least they’re not going two steps forward and ten steps back like they used to.  Now it’s more like they’re going two steps forward and a half step back every now and then.  Still looking good but dealing with a lot of B.S…Iraq is teetering right there at the doorstep.  They really are...

Militiaman – Dinar Guru  Article:  “Saleh and Al-Kazemi confirm support for dialogue in resolving outstanding issues and launching“. A fresh meeting with the President and the Prime Minister today on topics like security, stability solidarity, consolidating ranks and moving towards meeting the national entitlements…These items have serious implications for the future. They are working like a government that has the people on their agenda.   [Post 1 of 2]

Militiaman – Dinar Guru  Their peoples entitlements would come from the reforms that have been promised. That sounds like they are gearing for a change in an exchange rate when using the word entitlements. As exchange rate change will be needed to give the citizens their purchasing power, this year not next…The two having the meeting today, is all a part of the reforms, imo. It shows the solidarity is in tack.. imo [Post 2 of 2]

Kaperoni – Dinar Guru  Former deputy CBI gov and economic adviser to the PM Muhammed Salih stated that Iraq is worth about $16 trillion dollars including oil and all minerals in the ground.  So there…$16 trillion dollars!

Pimpy – Dinar Guru  Article:  “Al-Kazemi’s advisor puts forward a proposal to double growth rates“.   Oh, yeah baby!  That’s what we want to see!  Quote:   “Saleh proposed on Saturday to raise the volume of investment in six sectors to double growth rates…”  …Iraq needs to take that money that they make from the oil revenue and start rebuilding a lot of the different sectors…which has been happening ever since Al-Kazemi has been in office…if we’re thinking about changing the overall exchange rate of the Iraqi dinar you must first have a very secure economy…the private sectors – let’s get them rocking and rolling!

Militiaman – Dinar Guru  Sadr…gave a 40 day period out to the Coordination Framework to form a government and they are said to have failed. Also, this week we have seen that Sadr gave the independents up to 15 days to form a government with the Sadr’s block. An article suggests that the Independents could actually get on board within days and wa-laa here we are seeing them meeting tomorrow…there was approximately 220 seats under Sadr that didn’t get him the 2/3 majority. But, if the independents come on board adding 35+-  seats may give Sadr what he needs to form the government.

Frank26 – Dinar Guru   The ISO was to put the IQD in a position to go international.  For trading International.  To pay their bills in their own currency.  To deal with cross-border payments.  This is huge.  It’s a platform to go international.  This is the window for the IQD to go outside of its borders and float.  Or fix it.  I don’t care you can do whatever you want now…They’re going to float it in my opinion.

Pimpy – Dinar Guru   Somebody is spreading … what you would call ‘nay-say’, doubt, stressing people out.  I see it all the time in the group, people just go, ‘Oh, man the Iraqi dinar is never going to change.  It’s never going to revalue.’…we know that’s not true.  December 2020 the Iraqi dinar revalued…it went in the wrong direction.  It lost value.  [But] That’s a revaluation.  Don’t let people tell you, ‘oh, it’s not going to revalue.’ Because it’s a lie…the Iraqi dinar will revalue.  It will.  So don’t listen to what all those people say…

Clare – Dinar Guru  Article: “Minister of Finance: The financial situation is very good and an upcoming meeting with the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank is in Baghdad”  GREAT ARTICLE!  …meetings with the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank are about to be held in Baghdad.

Samson – Dinar Guru  Article:  “Iraq exceeds the Arab countries in the growth rate .. IMF: GDP willreach 9.5%“

Sandy Ingram – Dinar Guru   Iraq does not appear to be interested in revaluing their currency over and above the December 2020 rate…of course the IQD will revalue or float one day, however you should be aware that Iraq is moving forward without a revalue…

Kaperoni – Dinar Guru   It was stated back in 2013 in the IMF Article IV Consultation with Iraq they need to diversify their economy.  Doing so they then can float the dinar allowing it to gradually appreciate over time…Direct from the IMF in 2013…”staff encouraged the authorities to consider creating the conditions which would make possible a move to a more flexible exchange rate policy. Such flexibility could allow a predictable and gradual appreciation of the nominal exchange rate, triggered by strong oil revenues and the Balassa-Samuelson effect…” [Post 1 of 2]

Kaperoni – Dinar Guru  When you search Wikipedia for an explanation of the Balassa-Samuelson effect, it implies that countries with rapidly expanding economies should tend to have a more rapidly appreciating exchange rate.  In other words, the appreciation of the Iraqi dinar is solely dependent on the growth of Iraq’s economy.  There is no RV, there are no shortcuts.  [Post 2 of 2]

Mountain Goat – Dinar Guru  …we have many…articles, from the CBI itself confirming how rich Iraq really is and so why is the dinar not yet reinstated. The country under Dr Shabibi kept the dinar at 1166 for ten years and was ready to reinstate it in 2013. It is now 2022 8.5 years later and so why has the reinstatement on FOREX been delayed so long when they were ready in 2013?

Kaperoni – Dinar Guru   …yesterday the Minister of Finance Ali Allawi stated in his speech at the spring meetings of the International Monetary Fund and World Bank in Washington , DC that Iraq needs help to diversify, to change from a rentier economy to a diversified economy.  This is the plan. Iraq needs to diversify away from oil to create a private sector. Only with the success of that diversified economy can the dinar go up in value. It will not happen overnight.

Pimpy – Dinar Guru   Article: “The Central Bank of Iraq achieves the highest percentage of hard currency reserves since 2014”  Quote ‘the foreign reserves of the bank exceeds $70 Billion and a large number that the bank has not seen for years…”  Actually decades ” Iraq currency possesses an excellent amount of gold as well…”  Not to mention they have so much gold over there in the Tigris River that’s sitting on the top that could be getting mined…

Godlover – Dinar Guru   Community Comment: “From the articles it looks as if all we need is the government. Hopefully Iraq announces very soon that Kazemi…will stay in power so we can move on”  I pray this to be true.  I do however have some concerns…if Kazemi gets another year will this be the government that releases what we all seek.  Another concern is the new food security law…articles seem to imply that the food security law has a mini budget that will be passed prior to the budget passing. As if to give their citizens immediate relief until the budget can get passed. [Post 1 of 2]

Godlover – Dinar Guru   I would not be concerned if the food security law is passed with the general budget, but it would be concerning to me if the food security law passed without the budget. This would tell me they expect the general budget not to pass for some time. Side note: I do however expect this new law will coexist with the general budget once passed. [Post 2 of 2]

Mountain Goat – Dinar Guru   We can already see…al-Sadr is our champion along with Al-Kazemi and Saleh. There are many more patriotic members of parliament too who will fight to keep Iraq free and sovereign. With this freedom and sovereignty comes our RV.

Militiaman – Dinar Guru   “the current financial abundance achieved from the increase in oil prices needs a legal cover for the disbursement of funds under the Food Security Law, while there will be an entitlement to the oil-producing governorates under the petrodollar item.”  This reeks of the HCL.. IMO … FOOD SECURITY… Comes PURCHASE POWER… They are using the FOOD SECURITY as a cover, IMO..

Kaperoni – Dinar Guru   My personal view is I still believe that Iraq will float the dinar allowing it to gradually appreciate as the economy in Iraq prosperous. Which means it’ll be gradually over time and it’s going to take a while.  I firmly believe only with the success of Iraq’s economy can the dinar appreciate in value.

Pimpy – Dinar Guru  Things are really starting to look good for Iraq in many different ways.  If they could just get past this political blockage, get a government formed…stick to the white papers – then I think they’re going to do really good.  The World Bank and IMF have been making some really strong predictions for Iraq’s economy and if they can stick to where they are it’s going to be really good for them…Iraq is recovering way faster than they thought.  I haven’t changed my mind, when Iraqi dinar goes up it’s going to go up in increments…

Mountain Goat – Dinar Guru  Article:  “THE MINISTRY OF FINANCE CLARIFIES ABOUT RESTORING THE DOLLAR PRICE TO 120
THOUSAND IN THE 2022 BUDGET”  Quote:  “There is no truth to the news circulating on social media and attributed to the Undersecretary of the Ministry of Finance about the existence of ongoing discussions to re-reduce the price of the dollar to 120 thousand dinars within the 2022 budget”  I have told everyone over and over again that the RV is NOT in the budget nor will it ever be in the budget.

Petra – Dinar Guru  I suspect after seeing the UST, WB, IMF, Deputy Prime Minister, Alawi, in meetings of late, is a sign… A big one…many players …at the “End Game!” IMO

Clare – Dinar Guru   Question  “Do I remember correctly that the caretaker gov’t can become the seated gov’t by Kazemi making it so?”  YES, THE GOVERNMENT DOES NOT NECESSARILY HAVE TO CHANGE AS THE ARTICLES HAVE SAID THEY MAY AGREE TO KEEP KAZEMI, BUT WE NEED THE OFFICIAL ANNOUNCEMENT OF THE NEW GOV. EVEN WITH KAZEMI…THERE NEEDS TO BE CONFIDENCE IN THEIR GOV. IMO

Samson – Dinar Guru   Article:  “Iraq… Ambiguity surrounding the 2022 budget”  Quote:  “one of the most important priorities of the upcoming budget, according to global oil prices, is to adjust the value of the dinar against the dollar,“…

Pimpy – Dinar Guru   Article:  “70 private banks in Iraq – and the World Bank expects it to be ranked first in the Arab world in growth”  Yes, the World Bank is saying that Iraq is going to be #1 in terms of GDP growth verse the rest of the Arab world which is outstanding news…this is exactly what you want, huge growth, stable government, a bigger private sector, less reliant on oil.  This is great news.  This looks very good as long as they can stick to reforms, don’t rush the exchange because if you do it could be a setback and they will end up waiting years.