Dinar Observer Daily

Petra – Dinar Guru   With Kazemi doing what he’s doing and the speech he gave on TV Saturday, telling the country they are about to go international. They are about to support the people.  I believe without a shadow of a doubt Kazemi is a man of the people…I think we’re marching right up to this very very close based on what they’re telling us they’re doing. 

Kaperoni – Dinar Guru   One thing I’ve noticed over the last couple weeks is the significant amount of laws that are related to developing Iraq’s economy that they say they are now in the hands of parliament. We’ve heard this all before it but it’s time for parliament to pass these laws.

Pimpy – Dinar Guru  This next week is going to be interesting in a lot of different ways.  Let’s see how everything pans out.  Let’s see what this [U.S.] bombing [Inside of Iraq] has caused.  Let’s see if anything is going to come of it – bad or good…We have good news in the sense that outside investors are…ready to get in there.  The other thing…they have the money to start reconstruction which is good.  They weened out their corruption – this is good.  We need a strengthened economy – This is good.  The removal of sanctions off the Ayatollah in Iran is bad.  It’s a grab bag of news.  It’s a mixture of stuff…I’m hopeful…they seem to be moving in a positive direction which is good and that’s what we want.

Kaperoni – Dinar Guru  …’program rate’ again. This is a made-up term that is misconstrued from the IMF Article IV Consultations.  The exchange rate of the dinar is the exchange rate. It is not a program rate.  If and when the dinar floats, it will float from the rate it is at the time.

Pimpy – Dinar Guru   Something like 95% of the [IQD] supply is out of country.  5% of it is in country.  I can tell you this that the big portion of the existing IQD is in the hands of banks…a lot of people talk about having IQD, how many people actually have it?   The average speculator has 250,000 IQD…So if they removed 70% of the money supply, plus all the ones that have been damaged just through wear and tear, ones that were taken by ISIS, ones damaged during the flood, that means the actual amount of IQD out there is very low.  [post 1 of 2]

Pimpy – Dinar Guru  Now that makes it very realistic that the IQD can indeed be revalued around $3.00 if not more.  I’m not saying that’s the rate.  I’m saying now that is a more realistic rate given the fact that we know for sure now that the amount of existing IQD has been reduced by at least a minimum of 70%…this is great news.  That means the amount of money in the hands of speculators is very low.   [post 2 of 2]

Petra – Dinar Guru  It’s very clear to me the progress has been absolutely phenomenal.  If you were to put on a chart the amount of conversation that has gone from the CBI…the last two weeks have been off the charts.  And the right people are talking.  Basically setting the stage…there is clear evidence that a campaign has been going on now for a little over a week, maybe longer.  It’s talking to the citizens about what is coming…they have carefully and clearly and strategically been letting out information...IMO they are executing on a very tight plan.

Mountain Goat – Dinar Guru  Article: “IS FLOATING THE CURRENCY A VIABLE OPTION? UNDER WHAT CONTEXT?”  The context they are talking about is the FLOATING the dinar exchange rate and I quote- “of the national currency against other foreign currencies”, which means to reinstate the dinar on FOREX and other currency exchanges. Right now it is solely pegged to the US dollar so they are not talking about floating the program rate. They know already they cannot FLOAT the currency on a program rate inside Iraq. [Post 1 of 2]

Mountain Goat – Dinar Guru  The dinar, in a way, is indirectly floating now via the speculators and money exchangers and we see the mess it is creating in Iraq. …Yes, Iraq it is time you put on your BIG BOY PANTS and finally emerge to the global economy and get out of your closed economy and re-peg the dinar to other currencies in the basket the IMF has stated many times will happen. [Post 2 of 2]

Pimpy – Dinar Guru  There’s a lot of chatter about the exchange rate.  It just keeps going on and on.  It’s very interesting.  A little nugget to tease you guys – when the Kuwait dinar changed it changed a couple days after they came out saying they had no intention on changing the rate for a long time.  Two days later they changed it…

BGG ~ This representation is mostly inaccurate. We have published the actual news sources, documentation and hard facts surrounding the Kuwaiti event numerous times. While it is true, there were clearly some investors who made some money is this circumstance – it is (was) nowhere near the size and scope as is normally portrayed. I tend to think this commenter is recalling the China incident, event wise… though the China event was not much of an upward value change (+/- 8-9% in one day).

Kaperoni – Dinar Guru   Over the weekend several articles have surfaced that basically state what I have been saying for several years that the success of the dinar will be based on the economic growth of Iraq that is not rentier, meaning not oil... several variant of the articles… confirm Iraq needs to create a private sector, and investment. Only then can the dinar rise in value…

Pimpy – Dinar Guru  Article:   “A government advisor bets the improvement of the value of the dinar on several conditions and determines the rate of high inflation”  Here we go again.  They continue to talk about the value of the dinar in the news.  Whether it’s the exchange rate, what they could do, what’s going on with it, why they did what they did, they sure are focused a lot on the dinar which is another reason why I can’t help – I think they told us, give them 3 to 5 years or whatever it was.  I don’t think it’s going to take that long…

Pimpy – Dinar Guru  …We can wait a little longer…but here’s my thought process.  The more surplus they have…then there’s no need for borrowing.  There won’t be a deficit in the next couple of year’s budgets and could spend more money on private sectors providing jobs.  More jobs – the less money that government needs in its budget – puts us right back on track…I would keep it at this rate to the end of the year and then move it back to the 1190 dinars and then start slow increments increase…From 1190 dinar…to 1180.  Wait a few months….mover it up to…950 dinar…it benefits the Iraqi people…you don’t raise the rate and then turn around and have to lower it again…I know you don’t want to hear this…that’s just my opinion.  I’m not saying they’re doing that…

MilitiaMan – Dinar Guru   Article:  “A government advisor reveals the goal of the 5 trillion initiative for the Central Bank”  This is telling me that the CBI is fully aware of the global monetary polices and circumstances affecting the world and have a plan to help with those…To move a real economy takes being international and able to work on a level playing field. …Iraq is not besieged any longer.  They don’t have the hyper inflation like the previous decades, nor do the have the DEBT!  Getting to a market economy requires a level playing field. A program rate with out being Article 8 compliant in totality is not going to level that field.  [post 1 of 2….stay tuned]

MilitiaMan – Dinar Guru    A reinstatement based of current fundamentals will and can make it happen. Being fully article 8 will be show time… imo…Having support from having an internationally acceptable currency is imo part of the plan. They need to be successful. The world is imo relying on if not requiring it to happen, peripherally anyway, imo.  It sure looks like what we are seeing is the stage is set and the reconstruction expo if you will is the weekend…Fascinating times we are in…imo.   [post 2 of 2]

Mountain Goat – Dinar Guru   Article:  “AFTER THE JUSTIFICATIONS FOR RAISING THE PRICE OF THE DOLLAR IS NO LONGER REQUIRED, DEMANDS TO SAVE THE CITIZEN FROM THE GREED OF TRADERS”   Quote:  “… justification and motivation not to change the exchange rate to 1450, but rather to return to the old exchange rate.”  They are talking about going back to the “OLD” exchange rate upwards of $3.00+. This is VERY clear they DO NOT mean going back to the old previous post December 2020 program rate of 1450. Yes, it can not get any clearer the direction they want to take…

Pimpy – Dinar Guru   Article:   “Parliamentary Finance sends an “urgent” message to the government regarding dollar prices”  The news coming out of Iraq the last 7 to 10 days or so has been very positive.  Baby steps but you know what nonetheless still positive…   Quote:   “the parliament finance committee called on Iraq government to restore the exchange rate of he dollar against the Iraq dinar…”  People are going, ‘oh, Pimpy is this restored back to the original $3.00?’  No.  They’re talking about the rate change of 1190 for every dollar.  The economy supports it now with oil prices going up…

Mountain Goat – Dinar Guru   We must keep telling ourselves to remember that VALUE and RATE are two different things. We know for a FACT that the VALUE of the dinar is very high but the RATE to reflect the true VALUE is being suppressed. Why? Its called corruption…The Iraqi dinar has tremendous VALUE, as Dr Shabibi himself told the world way back in the early 2000’s that the dinar could sustain as much as $16.00 US in open trading. (I am not saying this is going to be the rate when it comes out). What we want is the RATE of exchanging to US dollars from Dinars to rise. We already have the VALUE...

Pimpy – Dinar Guru   Article: “The dollar continues to decline against the dinar with the closure of the Baghdad Stock Exchange”  Again going in the right direction.  It’s doing it in baby steps but it’s going…it got down to around 1470 for every one dollar…so it is going in the right direction.  It’s doing it at about…10 dinars at a time…as long as it keeps going in the right direction I’ll take the baby steps…

Pimpy – Dinar Guru  There’s talk again about the exchange rate…  Article “The dollar is falling against the dinar with the closure of Baghdad markets”  It’s slow mind you, it’s tiny increments, but at least it’s going in the right direction…the Central Bank is doing its job.  Stabilizing it.

Sheila – Dinar Guru   The CBI is coming out with a controlled float. This means they are going International. The CBI has full control. Kazemi and the CBI will tell their folks that the new CBI building is all ready…one year ahead of time…it’s modern…state of the art…it’s huge and a reproduction of the Tower of Babel.  They did not build this for a lousy rate. It’s more modern then any of ours…. Iraq is paying off all their debts. The education is flowing to all the citizens. Rasheed Bank sets the date for citizens to review the new cards…they are telling us they are changing the rate…The short of it is the CBI is in full control of changing the rate. They are about to show us….

Mountain Goat – Dinar Guru  Article:  “PARLIAMENTARY FINANCE COMMITTEE WARNED THE CENTRAL BANK OF THE COLLAPSE OF THE IRAQI DINAR AGAINST THE US DOLLAR UNLESS SOMETHING IS DONE SOON.”  The PRESSURE builds to do something “soon”.

Pimpy – Dinar Guru  Article:  “Al-Kazemi’s advisor: The Central Bank is able to control the exchange rate of the dollar against the Iraqi dinar”  I remember we used to talk about the exchange rate, why doesn’t the government change it?  I said, because they don’t have any say so.  They can complain.  They can request.  But the truth of the matter is the change is in the hands of the CBI.  They are totally separate from the government.  They’re independent.

Kaperoni – Dinar Guru  This past weekend much of the attention was focused on two different articles one discusses implement implementation of the delete three zeros or LOP.  The other is when it would be appropriate to float the Iraqi dinar. The delete 3 zeros is not a solution it is a neutral event where the dinar maintains the same value but it removes the zeros. This is a common occurrence in many countries that are unable to develop a private sector and have economic growth. Many in Iraq want them to do this…The other option is to build a private sector by passing laws, creating a suitable business environment, and attracting foreign investment. Doing so would allow the economy to prosper and as a result the dinar to grow in value and be a true value based on real economic success…we will have to wait and watch and see if Iraq decides to do the right thing or not…

Pimpy – Dinar Guru   Looks good you guys.  We want outside investors in there.  We see the Iraq dinar gaining against the dollar again.  We see other countries eager to come in and invest.  We see that things seem to have quieted down.  They’re very stable.  These are all good positive news.  That’s what we wanted and that’s what we got…

Petra – Dinar Guru  The Finance Minister said, “the ministries is continuing to open up to the world to conclude the best relations.  To open a new horizon of cooperation.  To restore its rightful place among the nations of the world.  It’s continuing with global openness and concluding investor relations.”   Concluding.  That’s past tense.  Finishing out.  Whatever work they’re doing internationally they’re finishing up… essentially they’re making a declaration that they’re doing business, they’re opening up, they want to be recognized as a sovereign country (which the G7 just did) and now they’re saying they’re opening up for business.  It’s a very very clear statement…

Pimpy – Dinar Guru    Article:  “After Barzani’s announcement, a government source clarifies how to pay regions share of the budget”   That’s right.  They finally came up with an agreement.  It only took 13 years, 6 months, 27 hours, 72 minutes and 84 seconds to do this…they agreed to retro it all the way back to January.  That makes sense…Here’s the thing that’s weird about this.  They’ve done this before.  Not that I’m trying to throw salt on this.  This is good news.  I like it.  But last time they agreed on something, some of the political blocks got in the way.  Let’s hope that doesn’t happen…I’m glad.  They finally ironed out their differences and it looks like an agreement is there.  Let’s keep our fingers crossed.  We’ll know if it’s real when Kurdistan says they received their money and all is well over in dinar land...

MilitiaMan – Dinar Guru   Article quote:  “Kurdistan’s Prime Minister, Masrour Barzani announced, on Tuesday, that an agreement had been reached with Baghdad on the Region’s share of the federal budget.”  ...the Kurds have a deal that is retro active. That deal is very timely… Kahdimi wouldn’t agree until he was ready for the when, hence the talk of suing yesterday seems to have stimulated things along… That… deal is coming out and quickly, imo… I can’t imagine the Kurds being quiet about it anymore… There is a deal and deals in digital currency can move fast… imo…We are in a very good place.

Pimpy – Dinar Guru   Article:  “The dollar is falling with the closure of Baghdad markets”  They’re starting to lose their trust in the U.S. dollar.  It’s something I thought would never happen…I never thought it was possible…we know that the dollar continued to gain over and over on the Iraqi dinar.  Iraq had to take some steps…to keep that from happening…and it appears they’ve done a great job.  The dinar appears to be gaining so far.  It’s just a minor step but it’s still a good step…So instead of you getting 1550 for every dollar, it’s back down to 1490 and it’s going to continue to drop.  Let’s hope so.  It seems to be going in the right direction.  That’s what we want.

Petra – Dinar Guru  What is the end game?  If you look at the challenges Iraq is having now in regards to the Kurds and  they’re threatening a lawsuit.  The governance is looking for their HCL money.  The countries that are just waiting to invest in Iraq.  We’re down to a single move.  Once that single move occurs all of this stuff goes away.  The Kurds aren’t going to sue if they get their monies…All of this goes away at the change of a rate…they’ve done everything…They’re ready to go.  They just need the rate…