Dinar Observer Daily

Pimpy – Dinar Guru  There’s a lot of chatter about the exchange rate.  It just keeps going on and on.  It’s very interesting.  A little nugget to tease you guys – when the Kuwait dinar changed it changed a couple days after they came out saying they had no intention on changing the rate for a long time.  Two days later they changed it…

BGG ~ This representation is mostly inaccurate. We have published the actual news sources, documentation and hard facts surrounding the Kuwaiti event numerous times. While it is true, there were clearly some investors who made some money is this circumstance – it is (was) nowhere near the size and scope as is normally portrayed. I tend to think this commenter is recalling the China incident, event wise… though the China event was not much of an upward value change (+/- 8-9% in one day).

Kaperoni – Dinar Guru   Over the weekend several articles have surfaced that basically state what I have been saying for several years that the success of the dinar will be based on the economic growth of Iraq that is not rentier, meaning not oil... several variant of the articles… confirm Iraq needs to create a private sector, and investment. Only then can the dinar rise in value…

Pimpy – Dinar Guru  Article:   “A government advisor bets the improvement of the value of the dinar on several conditions and determines the rate of high inflation”  Here we go again.  They continue to talk about the value of the dinar in the news.  Whether it’s the exchange rate, what they could do, what’s going on with it, why they did what they did, they sure are focused a lot on the dinar which is another reason why I can’t help – I think they told us, give them 3 to 5 years or whatever it was.  I don’t think it’s going to take that long…

Pimpy – Dinar Guru  …We can wait a little longer…but here’s my thought process.  The more surplus they have…then there’s no need for borrowing.  There won’t be a deficit in the next couple of year’s budgets and could spend more money on private sectors providing jobs.  More jobs – the less money that government needs in its budget – puts us right back on track…I would keep it at this rate to the end of the year and then move it back to the 1190 dinars and then start slow increments increase…From 1190 dinar…to 1180.  Wait a few months….mover it up to…950 dinar…it benefits the Iraqi people…you don’t raise the rate and then turn around and have to lower it again…I know you don’t want to hear this…that’s just my opinion.  I’m not saying they’re doing that…

MilitiaMan – Dinar Guru   Article:  “A government advisor reveals the goal of the 5 trillion initiative for the Central Bank”  This is telling me that the CBI is fully aware of the global monetary polices and circumstances affecting the world and have a plan to help with those…To move a real economy takes being international and able to work on a level playing field. …Iraq is not besieged any longer.  They don’t have the hyper inflation like the previous decades, nor do the have the DEBT!  Getting to a market economy requires a level playing field. A program rate with out being Article 8 compliant in totality is not going to level that field.  [post 1 of 2….stay tuned]

MilitiaMan – Dinar Guru    A reinstatement based of current fundamentals will and can make it happen. Being fully article 8 will be show time… imo…Having support from having an internationally acceptable currency is imo part of the plan. They need to be successful. The world is imo relying on if not requiring it to happen, peripherally anyway, imo.  It sure looks like what we are seeing is the stage is set and the reconstruction expo if you will is the weekend…Fascinating times we are in…imo.   [post 2 of 2]

Mountain Goat – Dinar Guru   Article:  “AFTER THE JUSTIFICATIONS FOR RAISING THE PRICE OF THE DOLLAR IS NO LONGER REQUIRED, DEMANDS TO SAVE THE CITIZEN FROM THE GREED OF TRADERS”   Quote:  “… justification and motivation not to change the exchange rate to 1450, but rather to return to the old exchange rate.”  They are talking about going back to the “OLD” exchange rate upwards of $3.00+. This is VERY clear they DO NOT mean going back to the old previous post December 2020 program rate of 1450. Yes, it can not get any clearer the direction they want to take…

Pimpy – Dinar Guru   Article:   “Parliamentary Finance sends an “urgent” message to the government regarding dollar prices”  The news coming out of Iraq the last 7 to 10 days or so has been very positive.  Baby steps but you know what nonetheless still positive…   Quote:   “the parliament finance committee called on Iraq government to restore the exchange rate of he dollar against the Iraq dinar…”  People are going, ‘oh, Pimpy is this restored back to the original $3.00?’  No.  They’re talking about the rate change of 1190 for every dollar.  The economy supports it now with oil prices going up…

Mountain Goat – Dinar Guru   We must keep telling ourselves to remember that VALUE and RATE are two different things. We know for a FACT that the VALUE of the dinar is very high but the RATE to reflect the true VALUE is being suppressed. Why? Its called corruption…The Iraqi dinar has tremendous VALUE, as Dr Shabibi himself told the world way back in the early 2000’s that the dinar could sustain as much as $16.00 US in open trading. (I am not saying this is going to be the rate when it comes out). What we want is the RATE of exchanging to US dollars from Dinars to rise. We already have the VALUE...

Pimpy – Dinar Guru   Article: “The dollar continues to decline against the dinar with the closure of the Baghdad Stock Exchange”  Again going in the right direction.  It’s doing it in baby steps but it’s going…it got down to around 1470 for every one dollar…so it is going in the right direction.  It’s doing it at about…10 dinars at a time…as long as it keeps going in the right direction I’ll take the baby steps…

Pimpy – Dinar Guru  There’s talk again about the exchange rate…  Article “The dollar is falling against the dinar with the closure of Baghdad markets”  It’s slow mind you, it’s tiny increments, but at least it’s going in the right direction…the Central Bank is doing its job.  Stabilizing it.

Sheila – Dinar Guru   The CBI is coming out with a controlled float. This means they are going International. The CBI has full control. Kazemi and the CBI will tell their folks that the new CBI building is all ready…one year ahead of time…it’s modern…state of the art…it’s huge and a reproduction of the Tower of Babel.  They did not build this for a lousy rate. It’s more modern then any of ours…. Iraq is paying off all their debts. The education is flowing to all the citizens. Rasheed Bank sets the date for citizens to review the new cards…they are telling us they are changing the rate…The short of it is the CBI is in full control of changing the rate. They are about to show us….

Mountain Goat – Dinar Guru  Article:  “PARLIAMENTARY FINANCE COMMITTEE WARNED THE CENTRAL BANK OF THE COLLAPSE OF THE IRAQI DINAR AGAINST THE US DOLLAR UNLESS SOMETHING IS DONE SOON.”  The PRESSURE builds to do something “soon”.

Pimpy – Dinar Guru  Article:  “Al-Kazemi’s advisor: The Central Bank is able to control the exchange rate of the dollar against the Iraqi dinar”  I remember we used to talk about the exchange rate, why doesn’t the government change it?  I said, because they don’t have any say so.  They can complain.  They can request.  But the truth of the matter is the change is in the hands of the CBI.  They are totally separate from the government.  They’re independent.

Kaperoni – Dinar Guru  This past weekend much of the attention was focused on two different articles one discusses implement implementation of the delete three zeros or LOP.  The other is when it would be appropriate to float the Iraqi dinar. The delete 3 zeros is not a solution it is a neutral event where the dinar maintains the same value but it removes the zeros. This is a common occurrence in many countries that are unable to develop a private sector and have economic growth. Many in Iraq want them to do this…The other option is to build a private sector by passing laws, creating a suitable business environment, and attracting foreign investment. Doing so would allow the economy to prosper and as a result the dinar to grow in value and be a true value based on real economic success…we will have to wait and watch and see if Iraq decides to do the right thing or not…

Pimpy – Dinar Guru   Looks good you guys.  We want outside investors in there.  We see the Iraq dinar gaining against the dollar again.  We see other countries eager to come in and invest.  We see that things seem to have quieted down.  They’re very stable.  These are all good positive news.  That’s what we wanted and that’s what we got…

Petra – Dinar Guru  The Finance Minister said, “the ministries is continuing to open up to the world to conclude the best relations.  To open a new horizon of cooperation.  To restore its rightful place among the nations of the world.  It’s continuing with global openness and concluding investor relations.”   Concluding.  That’s past tense.  Finishing out.  Whatever work they’re doing internationally they’re finishing up… essentially they’re making a declaration that they’re doing business, they’re opening up, they want to be recognized as a sovereign country (which the G7 just did) and now they’re saying they’re opening up for business.  It’s a very very clear statement…

Pimpy – Dinar Guru    Article:  “After Barzani’s announcement, a government source clarifies how to pay regions share of the budget”   That’s right.  They finally came up with an agreement.  It only took 13 years, 6 months, 27 hours, 72 minutes and 84 seconds to do this…they agreed to retro it all the way back to January.  That makes sense…Here’s the thing that’s weird about this.  They’ve done this before.  Not that I’m trying to throw salt on this.  This is good news.  I like it.  But last time they agreed on something, some of the political blocks got in the way.  Let’s hope that doesn’t happen…I’m glad.  They finally ironed out their differences and it looks like an agreement is there.  Let’s keep our fingers crossed.  We’ll know if it’s real when Kurdistan says they received their money and all is well over in dinar land...

MilitiaMan – Dinar Guru   Article quote:  “Kurdistan’s Prime Minister, Masrour Barzani announced, on Tuesday, that an agreement had been reached with Baghdad on the Region’s share of the federal budget.”  ...the Kurds have a deal that is retro active. That deal is very timely… Kahdimi wouldn’t agree until he was ready for the when, hence the talk of suing yesterday seems to have stimulated things along… That… deal is coming out and quickly, imo… I can’t imagine the Kurds being quiet about it anymore… There is a deal and deals in digital currency can move fast… imo…We are in a very good place.

Pimpy – Dinar Guru   Article:  “The dollar is falling with the closure of Baghdad markets”  They’re starting to lose their trust in the U.S. dollar.  It’s something I thought would never happen…I never thought it was possible…we know that the dollar continued to gain over and over on the Iraqi dinar.  Iraq had to take some steps…to keep that from happening…and it appears they’ve done a great job.  The dinar appears to be gaining so far.  It’s just a minor step but it’s still a good step…So instead of you getting 1550 for every dollar, it’s back down to 1490 and it’s going to continue to drop.  Let’s hope so.  It seems to be going in the right direction.  That’s what we want.

Petra – Dinar Guru  What is the end game?  If you look at the challenges Iraq is having now in regards to the Kurds and  they’re threatening a lawsuit.  The governance is looking for their HCL money.  The countries that are just waiting to invest in Iraq.  We’re down to a single move.  Once that single move occurs all of this stuff goes away.  The Kurds aren’t going to sue if they get their monies…All of this goes away at the change of a rate…they’ve done everything…They’re ready to go.  They just need the rate…

Pimpy – Dinar Guru  There really has been a lot of talk about the rate change – not just by so-called gurus but in the news.  Very interesting.  Very very interesting that once again this topic is being brought up.  You have a group of people not happy about the change that took place in the first place – saying that they should not have devalued the Iraqi dinar against the U.S. dollar…I know they said, ‘we’re gonna keep the same rate for 3 year.’  Will they do that?  There’s always a good chance they might do that…

Dinar Investor – Jeff    Article:   “Parliament: The exchange rate of the dollar against the dinar will be fixed for at least a year“.  Article: “Al-Kazemi’s advisor reveals the details of the first economic reform program in Iraq and its launch date”.   Quote: “Starting in the years 2022-32 it’ll be the first development decade for Iraq…”  They’re going to launch the white paper reforms in 2022…Based on general daily news they’re probably planning to change the rate next year when they implement the ‘White Paper’ reforms.  But…let’s look at the sources of these articles…  [post 1 of 2]

Dinar Investor – Jeff   The first one is the parliamentary finance committee [the second a GOI advisor].  That’s NOT the CBI! …they made a key statement here.  Quote:  “Cougar said, “changing the exchange rate is the responsibility of the Central Bank.”  No body else.  The CBI… only the CBI has anything to do with the value of Iraq’s currency/changing the rate…This general daily news suggests to you Iraq might change the rate next year when they implement the economic White Paper reforms…none of this news is from the CBI.  With that said none of this news holds any credibility.  [post 2 of 2]

MilitiaMan – Dinar Guru   Why is the world Bank so giving now?  “With regard to the role of the World Bank in improving Iraq’s economy, Numan stated that “the Bank is working with the Government of Iraq to implement the reform items that it has drawn up, and we are working through all our projects to approach the economic crises that we have previously identified, and all the projects we undertake are within the framework of supporting the paper White reform. He pointed out that “Iraq has drawn up a policy to improve the country’s economic reality by adhering to the reform white paper approved by the Council of Ministers, and work has begun to implement its contents.”….   There you go. They are implementing the White Papers…

Pimpy – Dinar Guru  Article: “The Central Bank of Iraq takes step that may contribute to the decrease in the price of the dollar.”  This is good. Supply and demand.  The more money [U.S. Dollars] they put out there to sell…the less value they have.  This increase in sales is good for the dinar…we like this.  Heck yeah we do!  The more we can strengthen and support the dinar – Whatever they need to do.  All of these contribute one way or another…

Mountain Goat – Dinar Guru   We all should know by now that the rate of the CBI is an in-country rate only and the IQD is not yet on FOREX…It is NOT yet activated on FOREX! …Next, I want to say that the fluctuating rate of the dinar in Iraq demonstrates to us once again that the rate is being manipulated. It is artificially restrained from the realizing the real value. It is being held back. This is being done for purposes. The CBI has a plan it is carrying out…hang tight. This investment will be well worth it. It is not as far off as you think, not just now.

Pimpy – Dinar Guru  Article:  “The Central bank sells the highest amount of dollars since the exchange rate change”  That’s good news…if they’re starting to part more with the US dollar they’re starting to regain a little faith in the currency – possibly…if they want to increase the value of the dinars vs US dollars this is one way to do it – flood the markets with US dollars.  

Walkingstick – Dinar Guru  The White papers have the new exchange rate.  The white papers are the line items/game-plan for both of these reforms [monetary & economic].  The white papers are the when, how and why to do the monetary and economic reforms…this is a report that has been agreed upon by the Fab 4, CBI and Kazemi.  It has been handed over to the World Bank to tell the World Bank this is the economic reform.  This is the monetary reform…The World Bank has the economic reform and monetary reform on paper now and the mechanisms to make it all work…none of these line items are calculated to succeed at a program rate.  None.

Mountain Goat – Dinar Guru  We must all remember that the original reason why they changed out the Saddam notes for the larger 3 zero notes was to combat massive inflation and stabilize the economy. In 2003 it was on the brink of crashing. So now how does it look after almost 17 years of the larger three zero notes? Is it much better than in 2003?  Okay so if you are really a student of Iraqi politics and finance you will learn that  it does not have to be much better, only stable. Stable you say? How can the dinar be stable with the rate changing so much and being devalued?  So maybe the time  have come now to release the lower denominations as the three zero notes have out lived their original purpose? But to turn the currency back on the will still need the oil and gas law.