Dinar Observer Daily

Kaperoni – Dinar Guru  The Iraq government is striving to create a market economy with private investment. Doing so would bring substantial money into the country. This would create inflationary pressure on the financial system, the solution is to float the currency to relieve that pressure. It also would allow the CBI to profit by controlling the currency, buying and selling making commissions. Any kind of RV would circumvent those tools.   [post 1 of 2]

Dinar Investor – Jeff   [Article:  A surprising new forecast for the 2020 budget deficit]  …goes into detail about the 2020 budget…I’m done looking at the year of 19 and I’ve already advanced into the year of 2020…they’re telling you that the 2020 budget should create the conditions to support economic reform, reconstruction activities focused on immediate reforms and implementation of the government program…the government program is…all the government services after the rate change that are gonna be offered to the citizens post rate change to give them a better life…look at what they’ve linked to the 2020 budget…

Mountain Goat – Dinar Guru  …I have stated in the past that maybe in September the CBI might issue the new smaller categories if they were to follow the 2012 planned schedule. So it appears to us now they are not strictly following this plan.  …I am beginning to see that they are still moving towards an early Jan 2020 move since their accounting year begins on Jan 1st. We know they have told us through their past attempts to reinstate the dinar that this is the BEST and MOST CONVENIENT time to do so. [post 2 of 2]

Mountain Goat – Dinar Guru   …Well, well here we are done with September and it’s October already…Yes, the weeks and months are clicking away…  They…bash me for justifying this might just go all the way until early January 2020.   …SO, WHERE DO WE SIT RIGHT NOW WITH THE RV?  …We are just waiting on the CBI to launch the smaller of the small category notes. Remember they already launched the 250, 500 and 1000 notes way back in 2003 and in 2011 they told us these notes will REMAIN in circulation as part of the smaller category notes… We are waiting for notes yet even of smaller denominations. [post 1 of 2]

Dinar Investor – Jeff   …looks like the Nasdaq/ISX news was nothing more than a software upgrade…I strongly put an emphasis for you over the weekend that the whole software thing between NASDAQ and ISX was nothing more than a software upgrade and the second item I brought to you was I told you that all the marching and protesting would amount to nothing…so far you guys are seeing that…

Kaperoni – Dinar Guru   …Frank thinks something has to happen by tomorrow Oct 1st because the new FOREX/ISX agreement goes into effect.  Wrong!  …It’s a renewal and software agreement. Nothing more.

Kaperoni – Dinar Guru    The Arab Monetaty Fund is now including Iraq’s stock exchange among the 17 financial markets registered within the AMF.  Good news and a clear step in the right direction.

BobTheTaxMan  …we know the CBI has set it up so they are not selling dinar outside the country at this point and time.  All of these dealers…are buying dinar internally inside the United States and then reselling it.  That’s all they have.  That’s the market.  They are limited now.  They can’t get it anymore.  We also know the note count is being reduced.  The accessibility to it is just not there.  I realize we have not had a physical change in the value…but just take a look at the fact that the accessibility to it has become very limited.  Very limited.  That means somewhere down the line this thing is going to have value…

Dinar Investor – Jeff    …Iraq itself is not in charge of the timing of the rate change.  External powers are…this is not the first time that they’ve marched and protested from being unhappy because the government is not fulfilling their promise and obligations to the citizens…over the next few weeks you’re gonna see that all this marching and protesting is going to amount to nothing…

Larrykn – Dinar Guru   I was just reading the imf article iv. that Kap [Kaperoni] is always talking about, I see a lot of things in there that need to get done and what they want to do…one is they want to reduce to zero the money owed to the IOC’s (international oil companies) they also want to get rid of the MCP, So here is my ?. If they get rid of the MCP how can they maintain the buying and selling rates when its at 1160…they do the auctions now, using the USD, when that goes away, then what?.   also the big issue I see them having was Isis. That seemed to have put a big wrench into the economy. Seems they are working on that now…but so far I have not seen where they are talking about floating a currency gradually. I see them doing other things gradually but so far and I’m still reading I don’t see that about currency.

BobTheTaxMan – Dinar Guru  [Question:  Do you think we will need receipts to claim what we have to cash in?]  Absolutely not…now, if you were playing the capital gains game, yeah that would matter.  But it’s not.  But we know and I’ve said it over and over, this is going to be treated as ordinary income…

Kaperoni – Dinar Guru    There’s only two options on the table. Parliament has talked about doing a LOP which is a neutral event and you make no money.  But if it goes up after the lop you might double your investment.  Or the CBI could follow the directive from the IMF, and Float the currency. Which would allow for a gradual appreciation over several months or even years. In doing so allowing them to reduce the currency in circulation at the same time.  But I assure you they’ll never be a significant RV. It’s just not possible.  If you’re serious about learning about your investment I would start with reading the IMF Article IV Consultations…

(Did he mean there will?!?)

Breitling – Dinar Guru  …the best numbers I can come up with and I’ve said this before, you’re talking .51, .52, .53 cents. That makes sense because when you look at the gas [oil?] prices and you look at their budget that they have to maintain and then you look at what markets that they’re in to cover all that you need  at least .52, .53 cents.  Think of it as almost as the same budget as Brazil.  Because Brazil’s currency is about 1/2 of the United States.  I don’t know what it is right now but it used to be back in the day [1 Brazilian Real = .24 USD] You can compare the budgets and see what they’re doing…

Adam Montana – Dinar Guru   Iraq is meeting with China this week, and China may be stepping in to develop some infrastructure in Iraq…Seriously – China building roads or other essential things in Iraq…it’s just the tip of the iceberg. It’s a tiny piece of the complex picture that makes it possible for Iraq to increase the value of their currency…This China thing could be a MAJOR jump ahead for Iraq if it’s done right.  …China isn’t new to this game.  Neither is Iraq…Iraq also has a neat position in the world, and I think we all know what that is. And now I hope you can understand how they could easily use China to help them focus on their true assets, and make some major moves forward…This could all be happening in the next week or so. It’s going to happen quickly when it does…

Dinar Investor – Jeff…Iraq just shifted gears on you…they have to have a permanent completed formed government without proxy positions…the Education Minister has to be voted in and then as of this morning the news is telling you that “temporary” does not mean “stability”.  They have to get rid of the temporary proxy positions during the month of October…basically they’re telling you they have a drop dead date of October 24th…this throws a curve-ball into things…

Sandyf – Dinar Guru    “Five Trillion Dinars in Circulation Now, Tlar Saleh”   People really need to understand the difference between currency in circulation and currency circulated. The CBI accounts show an amount in respect of their liability for currency in circulation which includes all currency such as bank deposits and out of the country. The article is referring to circulated currency, do people really think that currency in bank accounts and out of Iraq gets worn out and damaged and in need of replacement.  As for the auctions, just part of the circulation mechanism. One of the methods used to convert the USD income revenue into dinar to fund the budget. The 2019 budget was around 130 Trillion dinar, where does the money come from if not from converting USD to dinar.

Adam Montana – Dinar Guru   [Will the Dinar come out around .01 cent to.10 cents to the USD, then float from there?]  I think I’ve heard people suggest 10 cents to the dollar…I’ll dig around and see if I can find a source…

Mountain Goat – Dinar Guru   Article:  “MOHAMMED SALEH: THE DEFICITS IN THE BUDGET HYPOTHETICAL, AND THAT THE FINANCIAL SITUATION OF IRAQ IS REASSURING AND DOES NOT THREATEN FINANCIAL SUSTAINABILITY”   Quote:  “the reserve of the central bank along with the reserve of the government amounted to 87 billion dollars, and this is very positive gives a great resilience to the state in the most difficult circumstances.”  So the TRUTH will set you FREE. No real deficit and plenty of money to re-mint the needed coins. But we know from 2012 there are already plenty of coins to launch to begin the process anyhow. How was DR shabibi going to do this in September of 2012 anyhow if there was no coins already minted? …Remember there is opposition to changing the currency and some are happy with the current level of corruption. Why? Because they are in on the take.

Mountain Goat – Dinar Guru   …I am reassuring everyone now that the step following this one is to reinstate the IQD and NOT to move the program rate to the exchanges such as FOREX but rather to re-peg the IQD to an SDR basket. This and only this, is what is going to force the rate to change from the program rate they have today…If all goes according to their target dates this could occur any day now. We are already in mid-September. But remember this is not the reinstatement and we can not yet go to the bank to exchange. This is solely going to happen inside Iraq…They are also not going to post anything in the Gazette when the reinstatement happens. It will appear in the news channels as this is the place for this kind of news. The Official Iraqi Gazatte is NOT a news source.  [post 2 of 2]

Mountain Goat – Dinar Guru   …I have said over and over again that the next step is to issue the smaller of the small category notes and coins (250, 500 and 1000 already issued) and then to change the program rate by deleting the zeros. For instance, a program rate of .00083 will become .83 or 83 cents. It will still remain pegged at the de-facto peg solely to the US dollar at this point, as it is today. …Is this changing the rate? Yes…  The goal of the CBI is to monitor the inflation rate after they make this next move. This could be 3 days, 3 weeks or 3 months. My take is it will be about a week…  [post 1 of 2]

Kaperoni – Dinar Guru   Quote:  …”staff encouraged the authorities to consider creating the conditions which would make possible a move to a more flexible exchange rate policy. Such flexibility could allow a predictable and gradual appreciation of the nominal exchange rate, triggered by strong oil revenues and the Balassa-Samuelson effect,”    …The IMF is asking the CBI to create the conditions to float the currency to allow it to appreciate based on the Balassa -Samuelson effect… [Post 2 of 2]

Kaperoni – Dinar Guru  If they launch the market economy as they have been aggressively trying to move towards and have presented it to be included in the budget of 2020, then I see no reason for a LOP…at that point I would see the CBI…moving to a float to allow the currency to appreciate to offset inflationary pressure created by that influx of capital…Remember the number one job of the CBI is to maintain monetary policy and reduce inflation…The IMF is specifically referencing the Balassa -Samuelson effect as the outcome for the dinar. That is a fact… [Post 1 of 2]

MilitiaMan – Dinar Guru   Article:  “Trump imposes sanctions on Iran’s central bank and reveals another package”   I hope everyone realizes just what this means. Trump has neutered the Iranian National Bank. How? Well, Iran is one of Iraq’s largest trading partners and has massive amounts of Dinar. They clearly will have a hard time making any money off the re in statement of Iraq IQD with sanctions on!! The timing of this is massive imo…

Larrykn – Dinar Guru   If they get rid of the auctions with all the money they make on it, what are they going to replace it with when they stop the auctions and having a rate that starts at where it is now and has to take at least a year to get to a rate that they can compete with the world as per Kap [Guru Kaperoni]. …I’m not sure how that will work out…to me they need a rate that they can compete with the world other wise the system will just not work…not when companies come in to do business with them.

Dinar Investor – Jeff   …Based on news we could not be at a better point in this investment.  We are in the best position we’ve ever been in.  Iraq is at the end of the road right now.  Based on their own news they have reached the end of their road.  Either they have to release news telling us that they’re going to start something new or they’re at a point where they just have to finish the formation of the government so they’re no longer boxed in that corner and they can advance to their new beginning which is the rate change.  We look amazing.  We have to see this play out.  The current period that we’re in right now is the best news we’ve every had throughout the history of this investment.  It does not get any better than this.  Next week is going to be red hot…

Kaperoni – Dinar Guru   Anything is possible in Iraq. But considering the IMF is the trustee over the CBI it is unlikely a LOP would be something the IMF would approve of.   I would only see that occurring if the economic conditions failed for the development of the market economy and left no other option…If they launch the market economy as they have been aggressively trying to move towards and have presented it to be included in the budget of 2020, then I see no reason for a LOP…

Adam Montana – Dinar Guru  There are some rumblingsssss right now!  This recent development with China may be “more than meets the eye”, and I’m hearing some encouraging things about the oil law…I don’t want to get too giddy right now, but we might have a heck of a week coming up.

Kaperoni – Dinar Guru  …There is no reinstatement of the dinar until the CBI writes the letter and the IMF accepts the letter for Article VIII.  It’s no secret when that happens we will all know.  Even if it happens that has nothing to do with the exchange rate.

Breitling – Dinar Guru   ...Iraq and these countries do not put out their money supply.  They do not tell people exactly what their money supply is.  But they did a couple of years ago by mistake.  They said they were at 4 billion notes...according to this guru there’s…80 Trillion dinar out there which is equal to 80 billion dollars or something like that...that’s not true…they’re reading a report that tells everybody what their country is worth.  It’s NOT their money supply.  Here’s the difference.  What’s your house worth?  What’s your car worth?  What’s your property worth?  That’s one report.  Another report would be how much do you have in your pocket?  How much Cash do you have?  That’s what I’m talking about.  For some reason people aren’t getting this…when I got into this investment they had about 12 billion notes…

Kaperoni – Dinar Guru ...there have been many discussions about a float over the years from the CBI, and economic experts in Iraq. Many of them positive…A year or so ago when somebody asked the CBI about floating the currency their response was that they weren’t going to float AT THIS TIME and it was taken out of context as if they were saying no float ever…the truth is they were not ready to float at that time and proper translation of the article was necessary because all countries float eventually especially Emerging Markets. And there have been many examples of countries moving from fixed to float over the last few years. Even several in the Middle East”…