Dinar Observer Daily

Kaperoni – Dinar Guru    …there have been many discussions about a float over the years from the CBI, and economic experts in Iraq…Floating the currency is not some arbitrary or random event it precedes pressure created on their financial system otherwise the repercussions could be bad for the country…if significant investment is going to come into Iraq as expected it’s going to create pressure. There has to be a mechanism in place just prior to relieve that pressure. That mechanism is a float…If you do not have a mechanism in place, the monetary stability in the country will be thrown completely out of whack. And the CBI could lose control over the currency as inflation skyrockets as a result…precautions need to be in place and tools are used to maintain the stability

Dinar Investor – Jeff    I feel the formation of the government is secretly done.  Just waiting to be announced.  It has to be announced no matter what...the definite ones that have to be fulfilled right now are the Education Minister and the three remaining Vice Presidents…which they’re doing this coming Saturday is what they’ve told us in the latest news…

Mountain Goat – Dinar Guru    We are now hearing yet more international organizations getting involved with Iraq. Even the oil minister has stated Iraq is ripe for international investors. Really? Now even China…is stepping up and announces its willingness to invest in Iraq. This could lead to an economic revolution within Iraq. How can they survive and transfer funds to and from Iraq with this currency auction still in place? Do they want to mess with these 3 zeros? Don’t they want a normalized and simplified currency denominations to work with? The answers are Yes and Yes and they have already told Iraq this is the case. This is why the finance committee is pushing the CBI to complete the project to delete the zeros.

Kaperoni – Dinar Guru   I have always said the pace of the appreciation on a float is based on how fast investment comes into the country. The faster investors bring money through the cbi’s capital account to invest in rebuilding, etc. The more pressure it creates causing the CBI to allow the currency to appreciate.  So it could make a big move in a relatively short period of time?  Of course…That is what the balassa -Samuelson effect is…the directive from the IMF to float the currency is the safest and best solution for all of us to see the currency go up in value because a RV of any significant amount is not possible…a float is the only reasonable solution as requested by the IMF in 2013 as part of the Article IV Consultation…I wouldn’t be in it if I believed in a LOP. But I do believe that anything other than a float is unrealistic at this point…

Mountain Goat – Dinar Guru    What about getting HCL and article 140 completed?  The HCL is already completed and has been passed since 2018, but not yet implemented fully and that is the problem. This too must be implemented and not just a law on paper. …Iraq is NOT going to get back their global currency…unless they implement their constitution “fully”…There are two main areas of concern- Article 140 and HCL. Some say also judicial reform but this is also already underway…Many also say that the Iranian influence must be gone out of Iraq…As long as they are in Iraq the US will keep a military presence in Iraq. I do not believe this is going to stop the reinstatement. If it was, they would not have progressed to this point of launching the smaller, smaller category notes and coins.  

Dinar Investor – Jeff  All we need is a VP to finish the formation of the government?  They have multiple positions to fill, Education, VP’s, possible a few special grades.  They’ll need a few weeks to complete it…next session 9/14.

Dinar Investor – Jeff    …squashing the entire theory of,  ‘oh, they have to float it because they have 74 trillion  in circulation‘…CBI already came out and said they’re gonna pull that large amount out of circulation when the rate changes.  Because most of that 74 trillion is outside of Iraq held by investors in other countries and the CBI does not give two craps about it…

BGG ~ Well, he’s part right. They don’t care… but not because it’s 74 trillion. Fact: They don’t care because it’s not even close to that number. In fact, it’s a VASTLY different number than this.

Kaperoni – Dinar Guru  …dinar rates…in excess of $3…not possible.  Iraq could never afford any such RV/RI.  The only scenario where I could see such a thing is if they LOP first. I’ve already stated I don’t believe that Iraq would LOP. That being said, the only thing they can do is raise the value gradually over time as I’ve discussed many times via a float.  The reason why I say they will float is 1. the IMF specifically gave such a directive, 2.  Iraq can’t afford any other increase in value with so much currency in circulation, 3. have to reduce the currency which can’t occur until after the value starts to rise. So we’ll just have to wait and see how the next several months play out. But I know one thing if they’re going to raise the value it’s going to have to occur gradually...

BGG ~ One person’s opinion. Virtually a 0% chance of a LOP.

RVAlready – Dinar Guru Article:  Article:  “Revealing a study to delete zeros from the Iraqi currency”  If you know the history of this, it is easy to see the delay article from Iraq is pure bull. Most of the intel providers are saying soon, and Iraq has been busy for weeks educating the citizens on the RV, new LDs , and coins

Mountain Goat – Dinar Guru   So our path for the CBI to reintroduce the coins is here. We just have to wait it out and see when they do it. We know that this is a very good step in the right direction… So, in the past I have said that in 2011 the CBI came out with the process of to “delete the zeros” and clearly defined what they had to do to get there. Well…we are almost there and it has been almost a decade since to complete the process. But we are not home yet…The process clearly states that they will delete the zeros (as we have seen in recent articles they are about to do) by launching the “smaller, yet smaller category” notes. …This step we now know also includes the coins (as they also just told us).  …So, when the smaller, smaller categories do come out they will have to adjust the CBI rate…

Mountain Goat – Dinar Guru   Article:   “SHARE OF KURDISTAN RISE TO MORE THAN 17% OF THE FEDERAL BUDGET”  So the Kurds for now get what they wanted to survive yet another budget. But this is NOT over until parliament passes the “referendum” required by the new 2005 Iraqi Constitution… Read my lips – ARTICLE 140 IS NOT DONE UNTIL A LAW IS PASSED...So they absolutely must get this referendum passed or this will continue on for ever and ever for each of the years budgets! ARTICLE 140 IS NOT DONE!

Kaperoni – Dinar Guru   If you go back and look at the IMF Article IV Consultation from this year that came out in June, the IMF encouraged the CBI to begin more training programs. We are now seeing an abundance these types of training or seminars throughout Iraq. 

Larrykn – Dinar Guru   I really wouldn’t worry about a LOP…that is just not going to happen, its been in many articles someone is just trying to stir the pot.

Frank26 – Dinar Guru    WS told us that the next thing that we as a team are looking for is for the picture of the small category notes and the coins that would be equivalent to the new small category notes 1, 5, 10, 20, 50 and 100…soon a flow down of visual aid pictures is going to go to the banks.  From the banks to the tellers.  From the tellers to the citizens…IMO these pictures are timed for release now due to the success of the massive campaign that has well educated the citizens…these photos are the final evidence of the reinstatement that is to come…

Mountain Goat – Dinar Guru  Article:  “IRAQ HAS DECIDED TO APPROVE THE RATING AGENCIES THAT HAVE THE CRITERIA ECAI”  Quote: “The Board of Directors of the Central Bank of Iraq has decided to approve the rating agencies that have the criteria …(ECAI) emanating from the decisions of Basel, to classify the financial institutions in Iraq, namely: Standard & Poor; Moody’s; Fitch Ratings; Capital Intelligence”   …this is a WOW! article and tells so much about how they now view their banking system. Folks they are about to compete with other international currencies on the open global trading platforms. Why else would they be so concerned about their ratings from these four agencies? How many times have they told us already this is the plan?…

Vital Brad – Dinar Guru    Article:    “Central Bank announces strategic banking projects for the next 5 years.”    Quote:    “The exchange rate as the main achievement of monetary policy applications and one of it’s important objectives, which has positive repercussions on the revitalization of the economy and stabilize the monetary and financial system.”   …it’s not a matter of if they’re gonna adjust their exchange rate on their currency.  It’s when.  You can see from the 5 year projection that a lot of these projects that they’re planning to complete are gonna  be done so with the Iraqi dinar at its raised rate.  So some really great news…

Mountain Goat – Dinar Guru  The only real currency we know for sure that will have any significant change in value in the near future is the Iraqi dinar and no other…All the other currencies you hear about are just extremely high speculation. I have been hearing about the Vietnam Dong and its potential to revalue…Could it? Yes, but…a speculative currency investment?

MilitiaMan – Dinar Guru   The AMF is complete in launching a special Index database for Iraqi Securities. They have it ready, as they calculated the index as being from 07/31/2019…

Chattels – Dinar Guru   [“which way you think this will pan out, do they delete our 3 zeros from the 25k note and we break even or do they delete the 3 zeros from the exchange rate that being 0.00084? then it would be 0.84 and let market forces take over?“]     I do not know. I have always argued/ allowed for the possibility of a “lop”.  It is a recurrent notion, indeed there will be rumors and the possibility of a “lop” until there is a definitive event of some type, eh?  The persistent debate regarding “lop” or “float” or “RV” have become tedious. I am invested and will stay the course at this point for better or worse.

Kaperoni – Dinar Guru  [I don’t care how it gains value as long as something happens!]  Well hopefully it will start in the next 3-6 months… Everyone…should be hoping that come the first of the year, the laws are passed and international investors are lined up to bring money into Iraq to rebuild and support a market economy.  …one thing is sure…Iraq expects 70 billion from private investors in 2020.  …70 billion USD is a lot of potential pressure for the CBI.  [post 3 of 3]

Kaperoni – Dinar Guru  [Ultimately isn’t it the CBI that makes the decisions?]  Yes the CBI has to do it.  But no because Iraq has to follow the Stand By Agreements they signed in exchange for loans over the years with the UN, IMF and WB…And the IMF became the Trustee of the CBI in Dec 2015 per agreement signed. Therefore, I see the IMF directives going forward.  And if you look at the success of the CBI since Dec 2015 their has been several successes including reducing the spread to within 2%, maintaining a stable exchange rate for over a year, and significant progress on money laundering.  [post 2 of 3]

Kaperoni – Dinar Guru…why would Iraq be working so hard to create a market economy and get private investment if they did not plan to follow the IMF directive to float the dinar?  I believe that is why we have not seen the CBI do anything as of yet…The conditions for the float are not in place…meaning the laws and investment.  …People tell me all the time…We don’t trust the IMF. Or what proof do we have the IMF is in charge. etc.  Well my question is…when has the IMF been wrong with Iraq? When has Iraq not done what they IMF asked?  [post 1 of 3]

Mountain Goat – Dinar Guru   We made it to September and still no reinstatement. However, we do know we are at the cusp of the launching of the second set of smaller categories, this time in coins. It is coming soon. Just remember what I have told you about the process of “deleting the zeros” and what exactly is involved…This process of “deleting the zeros” alone does not get us to the banks to exchange. …In fact it won’t really mean much to us in Iraq but it is an indicator to us of what is to follow. What will get us to the banks (and allow the banks to exchange) is the “reinstatement” of the Iraqi dinar on the global currency markets namely FOREX. There is nothing else that is going to allow us to exchange.

Kaperoni – Dinar Guru   People want to associate me with some float theory. It’s not a theory it’s what the IMF has specifically asked the CBI to prepare for in 2013. That is a fact and subsequently the CBI has been making significant changes with monetary policy and economic conditions to accommodate such a move. That is a fact. That is not my theory.

Adam Montana – Dinar Guru   I think it’s more important to have a “big picture” mentality. If you adopt that, you’ll realize that the more news we are seeing about “Oil and Gas”, which is precisely the topic we want to hear about… the more we hear about it, the more we are going to see the words “delay”, “issues”, etc.  My point is that if we are hearing those words more than we usually do… this is actually a GOOD thing.  It means they are paying attention, my friends. It means they are actually working on the important stuff. That’s enough to make me happy on this particular Wednesday.

MilitiaMan – Dinar Guru   Article:  “Parliament holds its first legislative session after 10 Muharram”  Quote:  “Chapter III will be dedicated to controversial laws that were not agreed upon during previous sessions, such as oil and gas laws and the abolition of the offices of general inspectors and the Federal Court and other laws,”   …they extend the session to apparently cover Mahdi’s past pledge to the people…to have the reforms done in the current legislative period…which falls within the next 7 days…That means to me they will have to have the reforms such as the Oil & Gas done before they end the current session, the next session begins after the 10th of September. That requires imo an international rate to be done and applied, hence, the extension has been noted publicly today. 

Kaperoni – Dinar Guru I still do not believe the CBI will make any monetary change until after the economic laws are in place and the budget is passed for 2020.  One thing I’m very certain is Article VIII is coming because that has been well laid out in the IMF Art IV Consultations and more importantly Iraq wants to activate the TIFA Agreement with the United States.  Freedom of movement of capital is a necessity.

Sandyf – Dinar Guru  […you are the first person that I have seen move the decimal points on the value of the dinar (1190 to 1.190) as opposed to the zeroes on the currency itself (25,000 to 25)]  It is effectively the same thing, depends if you are talking domestic or international. Within the country concerned dual pricing would come into effect. In the case of Iraq for example, a loaf of bread would be either 1000 dinar note of IQD or a 1 dinar note of the new currency. Internationally the IQD would no longer have any recognized value and the value of the new currency would start at 1000th of the IQD rate on the day the redenomination was implemented. Within Iraq the IQD would retain an equivalence of 1000:1 for a specified transition period and thereafter only exchangeable at a specific banks.

Mountain Goat – Dinar Guru   Article:  “HOW MUCH CURRENCY IS ALLOWED UNDER NEW RULES TO ENTER AND EXIT IRAQ?”   Quote:  “One of the decisions stipulates that “the entry and exit of amounts exceeding (1,000,000) (one million Iraqi dinars) is prohibited even if they have been declared, and the amount is withheld and legal proceedings are taken.” Oops they spilled the beans in this last paragraph of the article…  Now why in hell would they be restricting 1 million dinars when this is only about $1,000 USD? They just told us anything below $10,000 USD is not restricted in an earlier paragraph. So why then tell us in a later paragraph that 1 million dinars is restricted when the equivalent exchange in only equal to $1,000 USD? To me it should be acceptable if the rate was going to remain as it is today. Right? Am I missing something here? So maybe the rate is going to go to at least a busk [buck?] or more. Get it? This is one of those revealing articles.

MilitiaMan – Dinar Guru  Question:  “I DID ASK TBI BANK IF I CAN USE MASTER CARD ABROAD…ANSWER FROM TBI”  Answer: “you can use it in withdrawals from ATMs and direct purchase from the points of sale as well as in the Internet such as subscriptions and airline reservations, hotels, shopping sites and promotion in social networking pages in any country of the world except Brazil, Indonesia, Syria and Iran.”   Wow, Trade Bank is telling us they are international on a Friday when banks are closed… Fascinating…! …all the facts in place now are evidence the end results for the completion of Monetary Reforms is coming to a close! Yes, international cards being used from here on out from the looks of it…