Dinar Observer Daily

MilitiaMan – Dinar Guru    With the FML Amendment being passed on or around May 22 of this month tells me that they have a time clock on things now per the Constitution requirements. The President is to or has signed the law. Even if he doesn’t it becomes law imo within 15 days or at that mark regardless if he signed it. Then off to the gazette it goes which is understood to be about 3-4 days. Thus, they have it geared to finish up in June, imo. The amendment has the data needed for the new currency and the 2020 budget with that new currency in mind imo… 

Delta – Dinar Guru   Report:  “Currency and Price Stability”   […so this is saying that IF the dinar was international, the rate would be somewhere in the $1.71 to $2+?.]  IN 2017  [the dinar] WAS WORTH 1.71 BUT NOW IT SHOULD BE WORTH AT LEAST IN A MID 2 RANGE…BUT WE DON’T KNOW WHAT THEY WILL DO UNTIL CBI POST THE NEW RATE...WE KNOW SHABIBI SAID IN THE PAST THAT THE GOAL IS TO MAKE THE IQD LIKE IT USED TO BE IN 70-80 …AROUND $2.85…BUT AGAIN WE DON’T KNOW IF THE PLAN STILL THE SAME …

MilitiaMan – Dinar Guru   Article:  “Daily rates of the exchange rate of the Iraqi dinar against the US dollar in the markets of Iraq”  More direct data that once the rate changes, the spread sheet can be updated and reported accordingly in the same effective format.. imo.

MilitiaMan – Dinar Guru    Article:  “The Iraqi Central Bank is preparing to open up to the world”    Quote:  “…the implementation of this survey comes as a result of the spread of this profession, which is due to the private sector taking the foreign and internal transfers, after being confined to the Central Bank of Iraq.” Wow…They are going public (private) and global. The money is going international… Wow…This is huge…imo!  They are now not confined. They are opening up to the world just as they said they would. The Private Sector is now going to drive capital formation.  Exactly why they have been talking about the citizens and there savings.  The private sector doing internal and foreign transfers of money is an international thing. That has requirements and rules to follow …Sure looks like more signs of article 8… …The CBI told us they were to expand the exchange rate and the gold database. Now this one is telling us they are doing things with transfers…Gotta love the timing. imo.

Mountain Goat – Dinar Guru   Article:  “SIEMENS HAS STARTED WORK ON CONTRACTS FOR THE FIRST PHASE OF IRAQ’S ELECTRICITY DEVELOPMENT IN IRAQ”    We know that within the project to delete the zeros includes electronic banking. Oh -this means they need electricity….right? So can you see how having electricity 24/7 again throughout Iraq can only help in this process. Lets’ see you have the banks that need it for international transfers of funds, ATM machines need it, merchant shops for Point of Sale transactions need it, etc, etc,. So this is a really good this to push Iraq forward.   Is this the hold up for the reinstatement?   NO!   But it can only help.

MilitiaMan – Dinar Guru  Article:  “Foreign exchange rates against the dollar for the period (1995-2018)” …Notification they are ready to roll.. imo! 

MilitiaMan – Dinar Guru  I believe if one steps back and thinks about the totality of all these [articles] the CBI has provided today, one may take the view that they are clearly talking very loudly! They clearly want the people to understand what is happening. This is more escorting now that I can remember. Collectively with all we have before, us there are not hiding what is to come.. imo A good thing…  

Mountain Goat – Dinar Guru   Sadr already told parliament a week ago to do something about it. Then we heard that this is planned to be fixed before the end of the current parliamentary session and that the PARLIAMENTARY FINANCE HAS COMPLEMENTED THE “FINANCIAL MANAGEMENT LAW”. This law is supposed to be the path to forcing the CBI to act upon the corruption in the currency auctions and move ahead with the project to delete the zeros (which we know will bring us the reinstatement and thus a significant increase in the value of the dinar)   [post 2 of 2]

Mountain Goat – Dinar Guru   Article:  “IRAQI INDUSTRY DELIBERATELY KILLED BY CURRENCY AUCTIONS”  Of course, we as investors all see it too so this news is not new to us. The important part if more and more people in high positions in parliament are frustrated too and see that the lack of reinstating the currency is killing any prospects for any real progress in Iraq. The delay is all due to corruption and nothing more. So over the last couple weeks we have had four (4) articles already on this topic so the pressure is building to do something about it. [post 1 of 2]

Mountain Goat – Dinar Guru   When is the turning point then when Iraq finally moves completely into Article 8 of the IMF charter for member nations and then operates fully in this capacity? …for now this has not yet “fully” happened. All I can say to you, without a shadow of a doubt, is that they still plan to implement “fully” the project to delete the zeros and issue some day the other smaller category notes. They appear to be phasing them in slowly, just as they said they would…  [post 2 of 2]

American Contractor – Dinar Guru   The Iraqi economic conditions are gradually getting better…The country is receiving more foreign investment as its coming in slowly…but the recent conditions like higher oil prices and higher public and private investment…Iraq is getting better.  Iraq is working within the parameter of the World Bank and International Monetary Fund…The spread between the official and parallel exchange rate is getting closer (2%). Iraq has low inflation.  Some say in the single digits.  The Iraqi dinar is pegged to the USD.  The CBI is using that to keep the inflation low.  The CBI money supply has been contracting started last year.  This may be a good thing.  Will have to wait and see what develops with the IQD.

Mountain Goat – Dinar Guru   Last week the CBI issued yet anther smaller category note (50 dinar) along with the 250, 500 and 1000.   …The CBI is really trying to keep these larger 3 zero notes off the streets (5k, 10k, 25k and 50k notes). These are the ones they needed to reduce by 2/3 of the project to delete the zeros was to be successful...The CBI is being successful in slowly helping the citizens become more and more reliant on these smaller category notes. …Is this not exactly what the CBI said they needed to happen when they say these larger 3 zero notes would remain and “coincide” with the smaller category notes?  So what the CBI set up is working. Only it takes time to take hold to the degree they need…   [post 1 of 2]

Adam Montana – Dinar Guru   We are just about through Ramadan, and this holiday has been a busy one. Historically, nothing significant has happened during Ramadan. To be more to the point, nothing at all usually happens during Ramadan…that has not been the case!  I won’t get into the “list” this morning, but Iraq has been very productive. Things are advancing!  Ramadan is over around the 4th of June (it’s different for some areas). Eid al fitr follows.  The bottom line for us is pretty simple… once Ramadan is over, there is a short following holiday, and then it’s “game on” for government and we are officially ready for big things. …OIL – saw a little dip, but still stable and trending solid. No worries there.

American Contractor – Dinar Guru   In Iraq, they’re articles written every day to mislead you…A week ago, I received information that the Iraq Central Bank (CBI) was distributing old banknotes.  This is a false story.  The CBI is not distributing any Iraqi dinar currency that is old or what you would consider lower denominations.

Mountain Goat – Dinar Guru   Article quote:  “The Central Bank of Iraq would like to inform all banks that IT IS CONTINUING TO PROVIDE THEM WITH SMALL GROUPS OF THE IRAQI CURRENCY by withdrawing the amounts from the current balances with this bank.”  These are the 250, 500 and 1000 categories but…they are adding back the 50 category. WOW! This is what we expected. The CBI is slowly phasing-in the other smaller category notes. Actually we expected the 100 category notes next… Will we get the others too shortly? Remember the 50 note is worth a nickel at 1190 rate (.050).

Mountain Goat – Dinar Guru   Article quote:  “The Central Bank of Iraq has launched the SIFP, which aims to create a regular PARTNERSHIP IN THE FINANCING AND INVESTMENT PROCESS BETWEEN TRADITIONAL AND ISLAMIC BANKS ON THE ONE HAND AND THE PUBLIC AND PRIVATE SECTORS ON THE OTHER HAND”   Now it seems to me they are “pulling out all stops” and going to take advantage of everything at their disposal to kickstart their economy. But we know the real reason for the stall. It is the currency. They know it too. Pressure, pressure and more pressure to get the currency reformed. Folks it is just a matter of time for us. Just sit back and relax. They must reinstate the currency soon…

MilitiaMan – Dinar Guru   Article:  “Parliamentary efforts to open the file “currency auction”   Having the Financial Law in place is nothing new…nor is it new this year per se, as it was enacted 01/13/2019. The key is the amendments were added now,  and are enacted. Get the point?  The action is about they have to cease the auctions as we know them to protect the new rate, imo…Wow!  The one way street is coming to the end. imo…

Guest Guru Future – Dinar Guru   Financial management law is part of the government preparation towards monetary reform...it is indeed a huge part of what we seek.

G-Lin – Dinar Guru   Article:  “The House of Representatives votes on the Financial Management Law and ends reading the amendment of the provincial and district elections law”   …This FML is a really big deal. It took them a very long time to accomplish it. Apparently over 23 meetings and hundreds of experts including international organizations…I likey.

Mountain Goat – Dinar Guru    …they are telling us the auctions (the traditional methods) are no longer appropriate for managing their currency.  …it is in the NEXT Phase in which they intend to implement the changes that effect the currency. I assure you it is coming and it may even come even before the end of the year 2020. I surely hope so. All we can is track the progress now of this effort.   [post 2 of 2]

Mountain Goat – Dinar Guru   Article quotes: “TO DEVELOP MECHANISMS TO CHANGE THE MONETARY AND MONETARY POLICIES IN THE COUNTRY, in coordination with the Central Bank of Iraq, AIMED AT RAISING THE DINAR EXCHANGE RATE”; “THE CHANGE WILL RAISE THE EXCHANGE RATE OF THE IRAQI DINAR AGAINST FOREIGN CURRENCIES”.  How will they do this change in the dinar?  Quote: “the Committee is keen to enact the LAW OF FINANCIAL ADMINISTRATION as it gives a complete road map of the financial policy in the country in terms of management of money and cash in the state.”  So we know that the Law of Financial Administration is now key and it does include this monetary change.   [post 1 of 2]

MilitiaMan – Dinar Guru   Article:  “The House of Representatives votes on the Federal Financial Management Act“   With the CBI talking about issuing small again from account balances, reeks of the Banks know the rate, as they would need to adjust for equivalency would they not?  Imo, they would now know since it passed and what it means. I could imagine the people will now start talking about it and even leaking it out to family, friends, neighbors, roof tops, etc…lol.

Adam Montana – Dinar Guru   [I understand oil is over $60 and Iraq has a lot of oil, but oil is only one of the variables…What about; – a fully seated government – HCL, Art 140, FML – IMF Art 8 – administrative and financial corruption – Iran interventionist – development of private sector – diversification of economy..]  OIL is indeed only one of the variables. We don’t need everything in the list to be perfectly checked off.  [It is quite Impressive the shear volume of good news coming out of Iraq lately.]  It IS impressive, and keeps getting better!

Guest Guru Future – Dinar Guru   Article:  “…The financial management law has been finalized”  Quote:  “A member of the Finance Committee Majida Tamimi confirmed on Thursday the finalization of the Financial Management Law.”  [They said they have voted on the FML but im not sure of the outcome]  yea said it was finalized but not sure how many readings we need and for it to become law.

MilitiaMan – Dinar Guru   Article:  “THE PARLIAMENTARY FINANCE IS COMPLEMENTED BY THE FINANCIAL MANAGEMENT LAW”  Quote:   “At the end of the meeting, the Chairman of the Committee announced the completion of discussions on the law and readiness to vote in the House of Representatives on Thursday”  They clearly seem to have every intention of completion! Mahdi being home makes it appear to me they have structured their moves so very timely with purpose… I can’t imagine even one member doesn’t show for tomorrow’s vote…if I am wrong then there are some seriously wealthy politicians that will looking at some very unhappy constituents taking off their shoes!!

Future – Dinar Guru   …we got the new international trade bank in SA opening up, we have the FML to be voted on to raise the value of the dinar and protect foreign investors, we have new atms coming out that weren’t there before, and now the u.s treasury secretary sitting down making sure they are coming online properly electronically…i’d say things are def. heating up…and we had an article from 2014 saying the raising of the dinar was delayed 5 years…interesting timing for 2019.   [post 2 of 2]

Future – Guest Guru   Article:  “Halabousi receives Assistant US Treasury Secretary”   Quote:  “The meeting discussed the promotion of cooperation between Iraq and the United States of America, especially in the economic and financial fields. The meeting was to enhance the prospects of cooperation between the Iraqi and American banks, and the need to develop the Iraqi banking sector and economic reforms through the activation of electronic systems in the exchange of cash...”   great news…economic reforms and electronic banking…my belief is iraq raises the value of the dinar goes full on electronic banking than later on introduces a gold backed electronic dinar.   “the activation of electronic systems” could explain those new ATMS popping up in the international airport…its all manifesting itself…   [post 1 of 2]

Tman23 – Dinar Guru  The only possible time Iraq can lift the zeros is start of July (or 2 weeks prior) or start of the New Year (or 2 weeks prior)… July starts the second half of the fiscal year, it was the central bank who said lifting the 3 zeros must be at the start of the New Year and not in the middle of a quarter.  But several times they did pass it off till June in delaying the first of the year. NOT rocket science since banks books are adjusted accordingly to these time periods… 4 months and the CBI will have a new governor.

Mountain Goat – Dinar Guru    There is no mention of a scheduled timeframe for voting on the current list of candidates for the last of the four ministers.  Coalitions must agree on the candidates of the four ministries vacant, before the beginning of next month June, to avoid constitutional vacuum and legal breach. This is still almost two weeks from now. As usual they will probably play this game right up until the last moment.