Dinar Observer Daily

Mountain Goat – Dinar Guru   You all want to know what is holding up the Iraq dinar reinstatement? …We have heard the paperwork is all completed, the approvals given. Even the codes to release the funds necessary for the exchanges to take place are out. Yet…here we sit still waiting.  …So the excuse given once again?  We are hearing that it is once again…a matter of “National Security” as the NSA stopped the final trigger. As they have done so many times in the past.     I am certainly not one to call the RV every day or every weekend but I know without a shadow of a doubt that this time it was supposed to go.  Yes, it was planned for…Jan 19th 2019 exact timing unknown. The Central Bank of Iraq is reporting that “this is getting old” and that something must be done. They need their currency to move ahead with the reconstruction funding payments…

Kirk H. Sowell – Noted Author  So another parliament session with cabinet votes not on the schedule. The deadlock continues.

Breitling – Dinar Guru  I think Iraq’s oil production is about 4 million barrels per day…Iraq is the second largest oil producer in OPEC and the 5th largest oil reserve.  So look at the Saudi Arabia currency, what’s the value of that? 

Mountain Goat – Dinar Guru  In today’s news we are also seeing more pressure to stop or greatly limit the currency auctions. OH – but how can they do that without putting the dinar on a FLOAT and reinstating it back to it former glory on the global currency exchanges? Simply put they can’t…   This reinforces again that something is about to happen with the Iraqi currency. It almost has to as the pressure is building and the bubble is about to pop. January is only half over and so there is plenty of time yet to see some more actions in this direction. How far can they proceed without the reinstatement?

Breitling – Dinar Guru What are you guys [Iraq] up to? Ok so you don’t revalue at 54 cents, 90 cents…you can do 10 cents.  I know you guys can do that and you don’t even have to blink. It’s not going to hurt your economy one way or the other.  How do we know that?  Look at the other currencies in the middle east…that’s how you figure that out.   So after Saudi Arabia who’s the biggest producer of oil in OPEC?  It’s Iraq.  Iraq has the 5th largest reserve in the world…So you start looking at these other counties and what they produce and how much their currency is and it doesn’t make sense does it?  Remember I talked about undervalued stock?  Undervalued currency is that simple…I love it cause that’s how it works. 

Adam Montana – Dinar Guru  […does Brexit have any effect on our Dinar investment?]   In a roundabout way it does, because global events always have some impact… so, yes. But it doesn’t merit any concern for us at this time. 

Kaperoni – Dinar Guru   A few people have asked for my opinion on the recent float article as to what “forced” means?  My view when I read the article is this MP is saying we can continue to have citizens on state payroll and take loans to support the budget or we can learn from some of these other countries and float the dinar and invite foreign investment into the country. I don’t think its a question of being forced...just a decision to get away from a state run oil dependent country and create a private sector supported by foreign investment. So a float is what is coming. 

Breitling – Dinar Guru  …They [Iraq] don’t have to revalue in one big pop or shot.  They can revalue little by little.  I’m not talking about a tenth of a penny.  I’m talking about adding 10, 15, 20 cents a pop.  Why they haven’t done it yet I don’t know.  I simply do not have an answer for that.  Because if I was them that’s exactly what I would be doing.  I understand they have to protect themselves and not make it too expensive overnight to invest in Iraq…90% of their export is oil.  That’s their economy.  And the price of oil is going down so they are not making as much money.  $56 a barrel is their break even point.  I think it’s $54 to $56.  They don’t just have to revalue for their sake.  They have to send signals out to the international markets saying “we’re out to play.”  If they are going to keep their currency low people are not going to send product to Iraq to be able to trade.  It kind of binds them up.  They need to start doing something. 

MilitiaMan – Dinar Guru   “FROM IRAQI TV:   The Economic and Investment Committee….  Iraq may be forced to float the dinar to encourage investment in Iraq.”    Using words like Urgent Measures to reduce Auctions earlier, and now they may be FORCED to FLOAT the DINAR!!!  The language is very powerful, thus, it is very important.. Again, the CBI stated the other day now, that the 2% fee on $20.00 (transactions) will cease on Sunday, thus, the take away is they may show us smalls.. imo.. Why all the Urgency? Logic points to reforms being completed, thus, change is coming...imo.

Delta – Dinar Guru  FROM IRAQI TV:   The Economic and Investment Committee….  Iraq may be forced to float the dinar to encourage investment in Iraq.

Mountain Goat – Dinar Guru  Article:  “WHEN WILL THE IRAQI DINAR BE REVALUED?”  So again the CBI is telling us and I quote – “the revaluation of the Iraqi dinar is ready to be implemented by the country’s Central Bank; however, the Parliamentary Economic and Investment Commission HAD DECIDED TO POSTPONE THE REVALUATION UNTIL NOW TO 2019”.

What is this telling us?

1)Again the CBI does not work alone and needs the support of the rest of the government.

2)The project to delete the zeros was postponed until 2019. Again…this confirms that perhaps this year of 2019 is our year to get it done.

It is now January 2019 folks!

Kaperoni – Dinar Guru  I…want to point out every year someone says look at the budget for a change. …The budget has nothing to do with any reforms and can be made retroactive at anytime.

MilitiaMan – Dinar Guru   The answer from the contact specifically says…as I have and others have suggested…They are article 8 compliant imo … Like has been said for years, they don’t have to tell us.. But by actions they are.   …In other words. Imo, They show us they are article 8 just as they rightfully can without yet specifically saying so for 30 days … 

Delta – Dinar Guru  Single Currency Crosses…LOT OF MOVEMENT NEVER SEEN BEFORE…SPECIALLY…EUR/IQD AND GBP/IQD…

Adam Montana – Dinar Guru   As much as we all hate “I told you so’s”, here are a couple. Headlines from the past couple days include: 1. BREXIT.  When this was first brought up in 2016, I voiced my opinion that it wouldn’t be successful and not to worry about it. As of this morning, it looks like the whole thing was a huge waste of time and is going nowhere… time will tell, but I could have told you that as well.    2. Did you catch my update last week? One of my talking points was oil, the price per barrel, and Iraq’s sneaky but convenient exception to the ongoing limitations on production by OPEC members.  Just look at these headlines…   [post 1 of 2]

Mountain Goat – Dinar Guru   Should we get our bottle of champagne ready?  I have to tell everyone the CBI is still telling me they are targeting the month of January.  I would not open your bottle of champagne and celebrate as of yet but I certainly would think about getting a nice BIG bottle and get it chilled and ready. But remember this saga is not over until the fat lady sings. Too many signs are showing us that this could finally be our month to see it. It has been a VERY long journey but I thinks perhaps it is coming to a conclusion…finally….
[post 2 of 2]

Mountain Goat – Dinar Guru   Will the reinstatement happen in 2019?  We don’t know when the reinstatement will occur for sure and many say the project to delete the zeros is now all done. So go figure?  …This news is coming from some VERY credible sources of information…   …there are no more delays expected. The process is on the move. They are telling us once again 2019 is our timeframe. OK – hold on to your horses! I do not know the exact timeframe in 2019 but all we can confirm is two things – 1) they just told us this week in the news media that 2019 is our year and 2) we know they normally like to target January and we still have half of the month of January remaining.  So let’s see what happens in January and if it does not happen then we move to another target. [post 1 of 2]

Kaperoni – Dinar Guru      A member of the Economic and Investment Committee said today that Iraq may be forced to float the dinar to encourage investment in Iraq…Sound familiar?   There is no doubt in my mind we will see the dinar float at or about the same time as the launch of the banking system and market economy for investment.  Hang in there.  This seems to be the year Iraq will move forward launching a private sector and encouraging foreign investment.

Daytrader – Dinar Guru   All that happens as the result of the consultation is agreement on a plan of action to make any necessary corrections.  There is no failure, only a plan of action to rectify concerns. Iraq and the IMF have been planning the reinstatement of the IQD for a very long time, and during this time they continued to develop and fine-tune the process specific to Iraq’s needs.  IMO this has nothing to do with nor will it have any impact on what we seek.  [post 2 of 2]

Daytrader – Dinar Guru  A number of members have expressed concern over a statement regarding an IMF Article IV consultation not occurring until later this year.  This is Iraq’s normal Article IV consultation schedule.  Most countries have an Article IV consultation with the IMF every 24 months, including the United States. It provides an opportunity for both the IMF and the country to discuss specifically where the country might have monetary policy or procedural shortcomings that need correction, and review what they’re doing that meets Article IV criteria. [post 1 of 2]

Mountain Goat – Dinar Guru    Question:  When will the 3 Zeros be DELETED?    The CBI will only complete the project to delete the zeros until the CBI and the finance committee can come together on an agreement as to when to do it. Then we hope nothing changes their mind in the meantime since scheduled. We are not waiting for the economy to take off or for reconstruction to first happen. I know for a FACT that the reinstatement is part of the condition by the IMF to release reconstruction funds. This was a plan from 2018-2022 so it already late.   They need to know that the funds are secure and will be used for this purpose.  …This is what makes this past May 2018 election so important. Investors and the IMF want technocratic cabinet members who are honestly going to move Iraq forward. No more playing games. They don’t care how long it takes. They will not budge until the government is fully formed and Iran is out of the politics to a point they can no longer harm the process.

MilitiaMan – Dinar Guru   Article:  “The Central Bank cancels a 2% commission payment for the $20 category and less”  Well well.. Now why in the world would they cancel 2% commission on relatively small category notes of foreign currency?  …The CBI is doing this for a reason and I suspect it is for a very good reason. As in they are going to have similar small notes that have more value therefore, they will have to exchange similar notes on a daily basis.. So imo, this is huge…imo.

Kaperoni – Dinar Guru   If you go back and read some of the transition documents…from the IMF it fits right in line with the plan we see evolving in Iraq.  I also encourage anyone who has not yet reviewed the IMF Article IV Consultation from 2013 and 2017 to go…and review this information.  It also fits in line with what we are seeing evolve in Iraq. 

Mountain Goat – Dinar Guru   Question: So what happens to the currency in circulation and the currency that was printed but never circulated when this takes place? Does the value go down? e.g. 25,000 notes become worth only 25 dollars? If they delete three 0’s 1 dinar would be worth 0.85 cents as of today.

Sunkissed – Dinar Guru  …After all the haggling and demands that Iraq has served up to Jordan… the bottom line actually rests with Iraq:  THEY MUST HAVE PURCHASING POWER to be able to absorb the MASSIVE QUANTITIES of goods, minerals, etc., coming INTO Iraq!  Ball is DEFINITELY in Iraq’s court!  Promises were made in the BEGINNING of 2018!! (Respect the first quarter! Sound familiar? — [Guru] Walkingstick was accurate!)  And now, the longer they wait, the more difficult, if not impossible it will be for Jordan to perform in time!  BUT…in order to perform on their contract… Iraq MUST FIRST HAVE PURCHASING POWER!  Iraq HAS TO BE READY AND ABLE TO PAY THEM!  Therefore, February 02, 2019, appears to be the back-wall, Drop Dead Date, “to be an exquisite mutual-beneficial relationship.”  If February 02, 2019 is the Drop Dead Date, then we are looking at Feb 02 – 04 (Monday) for the IQD to go live.  However… imo…. it certainly could go before that date!  [post 2 of 2]

Sunkissed – Dinar Guru   In my opinion, the TIMING of this article is utterly FANTASTIC…this article gives us the DROP DEAD DATE? (imo).   FEBRUARY 02, 2019.   JORDAN IS RACING AGAINST TIME.  why?  Well… imo… it looks like… February 02, 2019 is a deadline date to IMPLEMENTATION. For what?  Remember that December 29-30 meeting when many contracts were signed? Looks like Jordan signed some “old” deals that were “renewed” – I suppose we would use the word “updated” (to reflect a new rate? a more competitive price, since so many contractors are FLOODING into Iraq?)  So… there’s the PRESSURE! Contracts were signed on December 29-30 and to be IMPLEMENTED BY FEBRUARY 02, 2019!   [post 1 of 2]

Mountain Goat – Dinar Guru   But as sure as I am writing this…today, we are all of a sudden going to see a burst of flames as we know the tinder is already starting to smoke and is about ready to flare up. As in starting a good camp fire, we can see that much activity is about to burst into action and will soon move forward very aggressively. The two items they need for this to happen is to get the 2019 budget passed and then these remaining cabinet positions off of proxy and into solid, technocrats for these remaining positions.   [post 2 of 2]

Mountain Goat – Dinar Guru   The House of Representatives ended its session on Saturday, the House of Representatives finished the first reading of the draft law on financial management. Nothing happened on voting for cabinet members on Saturday.  MP of the Alliance for Reform and Reconstruction, Hassan Fadas, said that on Monday, the resolution of the Interior Ministry candidate is the main obstacle to completion of the ministerial cabinet. Let’s see how this plays out….  …there is news about the intention of Faleh Fayyad too withdraw his candidacy from the Interior. If this happens there may be some real progress finally in this direction. Let’s see how it plays out this week.   [post 1 of 2]

Kaperoni – Dinar Guru   [I’ve always heard the government has nothing to do with the Dinar. That only the CBI could begin the float. If so then why do people say only when the government is set the float can begin.]   Monetary policy is the CBI.  That being said, such a significant event requires support from the Iraqi government.  As well, much of the directives being implemented by Iraq are part of the reforms agreed under IMF or WB Stand by Agreements.

MilitiaMan – Dinar Guru  Article: “Iraqi Dinar revaluation postponed by Central Bank for 5 years says MP Noura al-Bajari by Amre Sarhan Oct 29, 2014,”   Good deal…Walkingstick told us back years ago that the process on the second set of books takes time. I believe there is data to support that from the imf. Didn’t WS suggest that time of the four year process to be 01/01/2018? I think so. So if that is the case which, I believe to be supportive being his track record is very good. The One more year equates to? Any time now! Imo.