Dinar Observer Daily

Mountain Goat – Dinar Guru   HERE COMES ARTICLE 140, JUST IN TIME?   Quote:  “The President of the House of Representatives, Mohamed Halbusi, the request to host the Implementation Committee Article (140) of the Constitution to discuss the reasons for not completing the work that was formed for it.”  So here it is again. Folks this is not my FAKE news. This is real and finally it seems that going to implement Article 140 or pursue it again.  Many say it is already done. NOT true.  Like I keep telling everyone there needs to be a formal referendum (that is already written and send to parliament) then it needs to be voted on and implemented. Then it is done.

Mountain Goat – Dinar Guru  Article:  “IRAQ AND IRAN ARE ENGAGED IN NEGOTIATIONS TO SET UP CREDIT ARRANGEMENTS FOR TRADE IN THEIR NATIONAL CURRENCIES”   …so this article proves once again that they Iraq dinar is NOT yet being used for trade with Iran replacing the US dollar. They are hoping they can do this but we all should know they CAN NOT without the reinstatement taking place and the dinar going international. This must come first. But this is yet another item to put pressure on the CBI to get it done.

Chattels – Dinar Guru  Article quote:   “Oil prices will fall to $””30 so the price of oil in the budget should be changed next year”  I think that Iraq needs around $ 40 per barrel just to pay government salaries.

Kaperoni – Dinar Guru  ‏ There will never be a reinstatement.  A currencies appreciation depends on a countries economic success.  Nothing happens overnight.  …Nothing is going to happen for a while yet.  Iraq has much to do and still must complete the government.  

Mountain Goat – Dinar Guru   Article:  “THE FIRST IRAQI BANK TO RECEIVE AN INTERNATIONALLY RECOGNIZED CREDIT RATING”  Quote:  “The credit rating agency Fitch announced on Wednesday that the Iraqi Trade Bank with B-degree with a stable outlook.”    …the Iraq Bank of Trade is the largest bank in Iraq and was set up in 2003 specifically for conducting trade with neighboring countries. But this has not always been the case. But now things are beginning to see the light and moving ahead as planned almost a decade ago. This new status is really good news. Everyone should be VERY happy today. This news however does NOT mean the currency is now international.

Mountain Goat – Dinar Guru   Iraq is slotted to be a “central hub” of commerce for the Middle East. But a dinar rate of just 1/8 of a penny is not sufficient to make this happen!

RVAlready – Dinar Guru   [Finding it a little hard to believe that everything is done, since they keep stalling.]    …hate to say it, but I think the target has been 1 Jan 2019 for quite a while. They just kick the can from one target date to another. This time, everything actually looks ready to go.

Beware!! This is PURE SPECULATION!!

Kaperoni – Dinar Guru    …There will never be a re-instatment.  A currencies appreciation depends on a countries economic success.  Nothing happens overnight.  Nothing is happening through the end of the year… Iraq has much yet to do before they can begin to float the dinar.

Mountain Goat – Dinar Guru  We are just waiting for the next step.  I know they have a target for EARLY 2019 to reinstate the currency…We almost witnessed this reinstatement last January and if it was not for some factors that occurred back then we would not be here today again at this time…I am telling everyone now…the flood gates are about to open. It is all going to come real fast and with a great change to Iraq. With this flood will bring what we want- finally!  Be patient and hang in there, it is coming. It may be very quiet now but not for very long.

Adam Montana – Dinar Guru  [I’ve been remembering back to Iraq being removed from Chapter 7 (UN) and some of the process involved….How does current GOI environment compare and what is similar / different getting HCL in place?]   I think the main difference would be the players involved – Chapter 7 was an outside decision. They were at the mercy of the UN(etc) on that one. HCL is not that way – this is an internal decision. The HCL is done when Iraq says it is done, and no outside influences can stop them. 

Walkingstick – Dinar Guru   The timing/ change of the exchange rate, of.. any country… is not, dictated ..by, the date/s listed on the UN operational rate/s of exchange..

Mountain Goat – Dinar Guru  Article:  “IRAQ IS ONE OF THE WORLD’S RICHEST COUNTRIES”  Quote:  “the Central Bank has a future plan to restructure the Iraqi currency, including the deletion of zeros”.  …to me this looks like there is a long term plan to issue a 100,000 dinar note. Why is this if they want to complete the project to delete the zeros?   So this article says the CBI is holding off on this idea (pending) for now.   My guess is…they are doing this and will not launch this 100,000 dinar note until after the reinstatement and then only use it for inter-banking transactions for trade and reconstruction transfers of money payments of large sums. The average citizen may NEVER see this category. So this is the real reason for this 100k note.

MilitiaMan – Dinar Guru   The wind is starting to blow now…imo.  The region is reflecting expectations that Iraq will raise the value of the IQD.  Goldman Sachs today told us they expect the emerging markets to appreciate upwards of 10% to the good. Well, imo that may very well be low. However, not a bad trade for the big boyz.  So, when I say the wind is blowing, they are gearing up for the storm. They will fill their sails and ride on Iraq’s draft up. They will be in the basket of currencies. Iraq goes up the region goes up…So the precursor showing strength is showing the region knows what is coming and are getting into the currencies now to ride out the storm… In other words make more money…

Adam Montana – Dinar Guru   [When did Iraq become a sovereign nation?…]  Iraq has long been a sovereign nation, but they lost some freedoms in 2003 with the overthrow of Saddam. Their currency plummeted in value, they had to travel a very long road to get where they are today.  Chapter 7 was lifted in 2013, which marked a major milestone for them regaining their position in the world. Since then, they have established a very balanced and stable government and worked their way to the point we are currently at – in position to implement the new Hydro Carbon Law, which will likely trigger a change in the value their currency is traded at. 

Kaperoni – Dinar Guru So tomorrow we try again to complete PM Mahdi cabinet.  Fingers crossed.

Adam Montana – Dinar Guru  … I’m excited for the new year to roll in!…  At the moment there is a distinct lack of news regarding HCL. I believe there is a good reason for this – and it’s good for our 2019 outlook. Many many things are being taken care of, stamped, passed, and resolved right now. Things that are essential for forward progress.  But, the fact remains… that pesky and elusive HCL is simply not on the table right now.  As soon as we see word about it, then we can get excited! For now… patience is a virtue, and we have plenty. Don’t get me wrong here! They aren’t sleeping on the job… Fingers crossed for some HCL news soon...

Mountain Goat – Dinar Guru This is the way I see this playing out. Suddenly Mahdi’s cabinet is completed. The reconstruction funds start to release within a week. But there is a lag since it takes time to get the projects underway. Not too far in the distance the reinstatement occurs. Also the CBI soon releases the 50 and 100 smaller denominations and maybe along with the 100,000 notes.  The process is kicked into high gear….  How long will all this take? I know the CBI was targeting for EARLY Jan 2019 but with delays in forming the government I am not so sure now since time is ticking…tic toc…tic toc… Be patient and let’s get the govt fully formed and functional first. The rest will fall into place.

Kaperoni – Dinar Guru  So it looks like PM Mahdi got a few of his cabinet in today but not all of them…so this continues.   PM Mahdi has stated that Thursday’s parliament session will complete the cabinet. 

Kaperoni – Dinar Guru  Like most countries, Iraq would not care if their currency appreciates at the expense of a booming economy.  That is how market forces work. A central bank uses its tools to manage monetary policy based effects in the marketplace.  An example would be raising the value to counter inflation. Iraq currently has very low inflation less than 3%.  If Iraq opens the doors to global investment, it may create the pressure the CBI is looking for to raise the value. We can only hope.

MilitiaMan – Dinar Guru  Article:   “A credit account in riyal and dinar between Iraq and Iran”   Quote:  “Citibank offers letters of credit for buyers in Latin America, Africa, Eastern Europe, Asia and the Middle East who may have difficulty obtaining international credit on their own.”  I would suggest this is part of a necessary end for Iraq now that Monetary Reforms are gearing to be on a different page if you will, imo, that had/has to be done because of the volume of trade between Iraq and Iran. A letter of credit is commonly for International Trade between parties. It is serious business. …Go figure the timing of it too. IMO. Lets not forget Rick Perry and all those Companies in Iraq may need them too.  By the way, CitiBank is one a large providers of Letters of Credit Globally.. They are Directly involved with Iraq as we know. Iraq wants guarantee they get paid for imports and exports.  Fairly sure Iran in an unstable environment.. lol This is seriously looking good, imo..

Mountain Goat – Dinar Guru   Many now also have credit and debit cards to pay their bills and so don’t walk around with wads of cash. This enabled the CBI to reduce the 3 zero notes by 2/3, which was part of the plan they told us in 2011 had to happen as part of the project to delete the zeros. Overall this is all VERY good. But this is a VERY slow process…So as outside investors in Iraq we…sit and wait…our wealth will come from a simple reinstatement of the currency back to the trading platforms and going international once again. [post 2 of 2]

Mountain Goat – Dinar Guru   SO WHERE ARE WE IN THIS INVESTMENT RIGHT NOW?  We are waiting for the government to get “fully” formed and settle this political crisis. There is and always has been a requirement to have a fully functional government in place and an adherence and “full” implementation of the Iraqi constitution to get the reinstatement of their currency. We can see that the CBI is ready to do something with so much talk and emphasis now stemming around these smaller category notes. We know that the ATMs are launched already and dispensing these notes for petty cash.  [post 1 of 2….stay tuned]

Kaperoni – Dinar Guru   Looks like parliament will try again tomorrow to complete PM Mahdi’s cabinet.  Let’s hope so.

MilitiaMan – Dinar Guru   Article:  “The Arab Digital Economy Conference in Abu Dhabi”  […it seems important  for them to get this “together” for Iraq’s RI….IMO…important for Iraq!] We just learned that they are E-Government ready effectively and Digitization is all apart of that…All geared, linked and…so fresh in peoples minds and on their agendas now… imo!  …the timing of the E-Gov and Digital, is not a coincidence imo…

Mountain Goat – Dinar Guru  Article:  “TO AMEND THE INVESTMENT LAW IN THE COMING DAYS”  Quote:  “The amendment of THE INVESTMENT LAW IS AN IMPORTANT POINT TO ELIMINATE UNEMPLOYMENT AND THE RETURN OF INDUSTRY AND THE PRIVATE SECTOR IN IRAQ and raise the market value of the Iraqi dinar...”  I don’t want anyone telling me there aren’t any more laws needed in order to reinstate the currency. To bring in investors is all part of creating the atmosphere conducive to investors, which in turn, is the state of the economy needed to trigger the reinstatement. It is all coming together.

Mountain Goat – Dinar Guru   What remains in this process to get ready for a reinstatement of the dinar?  They  said that the dinar has gone through the currency reform process and is ready. There is nothing more for the CBI to do in this regard except the CBI must conduct the final phase of the “project to delete the zeros”. It is now more of a political will and cautionary measures, notably the stability of the dinar against the dollar and keeping inflation down by up to 2% at the level of foreign reserves within the rates according to international standards with foreign reserve cash for Iraq (we know the reserves are now above these needed levels.)

David M. Witty – Dinar Guru   Source in Iraq says PM Abdel-Mahdi is preparing to send nominee names to Parliament for approval for 6 of 8 unfilled cabinet positions, less Ministers of Defense & Interior, which remain locked in controversy.

MilitiaMan – Dinar Guru   If we look at the value he places on the 6 billion dinar you get $.83 per unit or dinar in dollar terms. 6 bln IQD = 5 mln USD or $.83 per USD. So then that means 37 Billion Dinars equates to $30,710,000.00 USD. Now remember that he can’t tell you yet, that the zeros are dropped, as they haven’t as far as I can tell, yet. But, we expect them to when the time is right as he clearly taught us through articles.  The 6 billion dinars becomes 6 million once they delete three zeros off theexchange rate and thus 37 billion dinars becomes 37 million by definition.   [post 2 of 2]

MilitiaMan – Dinar Guru   Article:  “In an interview with “The New Arab”, Muhsin al-Alaq, Acting Governor of the Central Bank of Iraq , talks  about a difficult monetary and financial stage that has passed through his country,…”   The Alak interview has told us that they are at a 6/1 (16.5%)  good to bad ratio with loans. …he tells us that they have loans of 37 Billion Dinar of good and 6 billion Dinars worth ($5,000,000.00 USD) of bad. It is not a bad ratio for what they have been through to date.  My point is that the value of the 6 bln Dinars is key that Alak points it out, imo. Why? Well it gives a value of that 6 bln. Alak cannot openly come out and tell us a rate or a date literally to the tee.. But, he can in my opinion indirectly point us to it with forward guidance.   [post 1 of 2]

Adam Montana – Dinar Guru   …when the HCL is done, it is done.  There are a relatively small number of moving parts to a finalized HCL – it’s a Law that is pretty clearly defined in purpose and intent.