Dinar Observer Daily

Kaperoni – Dinar Guru   [Do you still think the start of the float of the dinar will happen this year?]  Im hoping… but I am waiting for some things to happen first… completion of new GOI, IMF consultation.

ADMINBill   This could be a very interesting week.

Mountain Goat – Dinar Guru   Do they then begin to use the newer even lower denominated small category notes and finally trigger this deletion the zeros project? This will mean a 1:1 within Iraq and a reinstatement of the dinar. But do they have the support of the IMF and the USA to reinstate the dinar and do it now?  Remember these small category notes are already printed in volume and stored as needed to support the economy of Iraq and for trade. So this piece is already in place and there will be no additional expense to the CBI. …So here we sit waiting and watching to see what the CBI will do. [post 2 of 2]

Mountain Goat – Dinar Guru   I do know for a FACT that they already recalled and burned over 2/3 of the three zero notes. How do I know this is FACT? BECAUSE THEY TOLD THE PUBLIC OF IRAQ IN THE NEWS MEDIA this is why. The move to electronic banking did allow for the conversion of paper to electronic digital. So they could just then burn the paper. …So reduce the notes in circulation means to take them out the hands of the general public and the banks.  …The remaining 1/3 will be used for trade and inter-banking transactions. They have told us this many times. Oh- but now they have a dilemma. Seems they told us they decided to trade exclusively with dinar with Iran due to the recent sanctions. So do they have enough dinar in circulation to do this?  …Seems to me they do not want to begin reprinting yet more larger 3 zero notes to fill this monetary gap with Iran. So what do they do?   [post 1 of 2…]

Kaperoni – Dinar Guru   Iraq will float the dinar allowing market forces to dictate.  As investment comes into Iraq, the exchange rate will rise.  Balassa-Samuelson effect!  I think most of us would be happy if the dinar ever equaled the dollar.  It may, but not overnight.  I want to remind people that the new Iraqi government with PM Mahdi is not official yet.  Until the new Prime Minister completes his cabinet and parliament votes (confirms) them in.  I do not expect any significant reforms to move forward until the government is official.  I also do not expect the IMF to hold their Article IV Consultation with Iraq until the gov is official…as these reviews usually require gov commitments.

MilitiaMan – Dinar Guru   …The CBI changing their site to the fractional system they are showing us now ( within 2 weeks) suggests they are or just about are ready to go with the conversion. …Today they talked about Iraq taking her place at that top of the region where she was in the Glory days, imo… Yep, they have massive oil reserves and now they say they may very well be the number 1 in the world. So, while we wait for the cat and camel show seating the legitimate Cabinet we can sleep knowing the process is underway and coming to a rate NEER you…

Delta – Dinar Guru   …REPORT FROM CBI …BUY SELL IQD IN IRAQI MARKET….PATTERN CHANGED…  08-Nov 1204- 1200…LAST WEEK;   27-Nov 1194.446- 1193.953 …THIS WEEK CBI IS SHOWING 3#S … IMO…GETTING READY TO GO INTERNATIONAL …

RVAlready – Dinar Guru   …Alak says he is ready to go, and the math has been done a million times over…they could do the RV now, and deal with the rest later…they have had years to get ready… I know it is a new parliament, but they should have arrived ready to do the job at hand…there was an article saying that mahdi was rejecting parliament’s attempt to delay…he was going there today.

MilitiaMan – Dinar Guru   I am of the view…that they are done with the cabinet, Barzani needed to be a part of the Interior and Defense pick… Clearly they had an agenda to hammer things out.  Therefore, my view is that they did what they needed during Barzanis’ visit to Baghdad (that btw went very well) prior to him going to Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates…In my view that the session for today or tomorrow was not an ordinary session. It was more like and extraordinary one, as Mahdi had a 24 hour window that was up Saturday, that got postponed and possibly due to the hammering out of the HCL.  We know the oil has been increased and there are clearly agreements that happened to get that increase of recent…we literally watch to see if our view is correct or not.

David M. Witty – Dinar Guru    Iraqi Parliament says there will be no vote today on unfilled cabinet positions due to political differences. Vote delayed until next week. Security agencies resist opening Green Zone due to possibility of terrorist attack.

Mountain Goat – Dinar Guru   …I have said over and over again there are multiple steps to this process. The first step deletes the zeros and the second in the reinstatement which should significantly increase the value, the value we all want. At the current 1120 program rate they are worth about $20.75. At a futuristic reinstatement market rate in the USA @ $3.71, 25,000 x $3.71 = $92,750 USD. But this is the second step. Let’s not get ahead of ourselves. You may never even see the first step. Get it. So who the hell cares what happens inside Iraq? What you should be most concerned about is when do you get to go to the bank and if the bank will exchange the dinar for you.  …these notes will not expire (as in a lop) and will carry the new reinstatement rate of whatever it comes out to be on FOREX.

Chattels – Dinar Guru   Article:  “To postpone the session of parliament for Tuesday of next week“

MilitiaMan – Dinar Guru  Article: “Halabousi discussed with the delegation of Baghdad Chamber of Commerce activation of the investment law and the establishment of an economic village” …Well, we know every 3 letter agency of the world body were in Iraq last month, we have regional entities with the likes of the Secretary General of the Unity Council and components of th Arab league in Cairo about mining interests over the last few days. The above is about accelerating procedures…to help facilitate investors needs…

Mountain Goat – Dinar Guru   The CBI has said many times they “fully” intend to keep the citizens informed of the status of the project to delete the zeros. They are doing just that. They seem to give period updates on the project. Just recently we received their latest update which said they are ready to do it and there is nothing more for the CBI to do. They are waiting on the GOI…

David M. Witty – Dinar Guru   Sources say Iraqi Parliament meeting to select names for unfilled minister positions delayed because of lack of agreement on nominees.

MilitiaMan – Dinar Guru   Article:  “The Association of Iraqi Private Banks holds the course of Islamic Specialist in Governance and Compliance”    There is a Customs and Tariffs Deadline by 11/30/2018 between Baghdad and Erbil to be imposed. Barzani has melted the Ice on the tension now. Oil is flowing through Ceyan at a double clip.. So seeing this compliance and risk certification for to satisfy Islamic Investors is finality for being ready to roll when the shift occurs in the internationally accepted IQD and investment related issues. imo.

MilitiaMan – Dinar Guru   “Parliament raises its meeting to next Monday and allocated for the completion of the ministerial cab”  I think they may have seated the Cabinet and will finish up other Items Monday.…We shall see…imo.

Adam Montana – Dinar Guru    [Has there been any progress or any news at all on the HCL lately that you can confirm?]  Yes, there has been steady progress regarding everything related to HCL. We couldn’t have a complete HCL before the pieces were in place, the GOI ready, etc.   Nobody will deny that Iraq has moved in the right direction.

Mountain Goat – Dinar Guru   Article:  “CENTRAL BANK OF IRAQ- THE VALUE OF THE IRAQI DINAR INCREASED BY 9%”   So for Iraq to compete with foreign products it must float the value of the dinar. This article demonstrates why. We know that they will NOT float the program rate as it is fixed and pegged to the US dollar. So something has to change and change VERY soon since Iraq just announced it is going to trade with Iran using solely dinars. Iran of course does not want dinars, as they feel they are not liquid enough and do not have the global purchasing power.

David M. Witty – Dinar Guru   In Iraq, Baghdad’s Green Zone to be open to civilian traffic starting tomorrow. First time Green Zone will have been opened since 2003.

Adam Montana – Dinar Guru    Article:  “Texas is about to create OPEC’s worst nightmare”  [How do you think this may affect the RV?]  The article seems to indicate that the US is ramping up oil production, which will lower prices globally. Iraq may need to adjust their Budget, and maybe the potential RV amount will be reflected in that. Let’s say they were to RV at $1, but oil is 30% lower than the former anticipated price, then the RV could come in at .70 as well.   As far as timing of the RV, I see no concerns.

David M. Witty – Dinar Guru   Iraqi Speaker of Parliament says next Parliament meeting on Monday will vote on unfilled cabinet positions. 

Chattels – Dinar Guru  The dinar has the potential for a favorable return on investment.  The question is when and or how much.

Delta – Dinar Guru     FROM IRAQI SOCIAL MEDIA . News of an agreement to raise the value of the Iraqi currency to become equal to the US dollar and cancel the 3 zeros as well…1000 IQD = 1000 USD.…DELTA

Adam Montana – Dinar Guru   [Please tell us will this colored paper ever RV?]   If I didn’t believe it would, I would have sold all mine. That is not the case – I’m sitting tight, with my …Dinar stash close at hand.

Mountain Goat – Dinar Guru    But this higher rate of 120 dinars to the USD is the “market” rate.  And so what will the CBI do next. They must maintain the 2% spread between market rate and the program rate. Will they adjust the program rate? This is the rate we really want to see change since the market rate could have massive temporary swings in relation to short-term swings in the currency auctions. So we wait and watch what the CBI does next before we get too excited.   [post 2 of 2]

Mountain Goat – Dinar Guru  …we have rumors coming from Iraq of the dinar rate operating at 120 IQD/USD. Wow! …This is amazing but before we…get too excited let’s look at what is really happening.  …this is nothing more than the initial shock from the lack of dollars coming out of the currency auctions. We know that when for any reason something effects the sale of dollars in these auctions it drives up the rate for the dinar since the dinar then is used more and thus a higher demand for it. Simple supply and demand ration. Right?  [post 1 of 2]

Adam Montana – Dinar Guru   The difference between the Lotto Pool and the Dinar…is…”luck”.  There is no “luck” involved, unless you were just lucky to have heard about it before it happens. At some point, we’re all going to look back on this and say “Hot DAMN did we get lucky!” – but it’s not really luck.  Iraq still has a major portion of what is one of the most valuable commodities on the planet. Iraq has been torn down, beaten, and bruised…and then clawed it’s way back to a very respectable place. If you’re like me, you might be a little annoyed with the wait. But you also realize that the “wait” isn’t unreasonable. It only seems like this has taken a long time because unrealistic expectations… Things happen in their own time, not on our time. This happens for us is when those two line up… and the signs are looking favorable.

Chattels – Dinar Guru  We have fought the good fight, holding on to faith and good conscience, I think.  We shall see what fate has in store for us.  Hopefully sooner than later. Either way it would be most excellent to make an end to this journey.