Dinar Observer Daily

Larrykn – Dinar Guru   Articles:  “Saleh, al-Halbousi call for maintaining community security of protestors“;   “Arab League voices concern over unrest in Iraq“;  “Baghdad`s protests death toll rises to 100 and injuries to 4000”  I hope they can settle the people down soon , this can be either good or bad for the country, they will either get off the pot or stall. we shall see

Kaperoni – Dinar Guru  These Iraqi protests have gone on now for several days. This is not what we as investors want to see happen.  Delays in reform and investment will be the result. Not good…They need to get investment and companies to come in and put people to work, that is what will raise the value of the currency.

Mountain Goat – Dinar Guru   “IRAQ: DEMONSTRATIONS OVER UNEMPLOYMENT, CORRUPTION AND POOR PUBLIC SERVICES.”    …they were demanding currency reform. …The protestors actually do have this on their list of demands. This is all VERY good for us and our investment.  A government like the GOI can’t keep making these promises to the people and then do nothing. Eventually the people will rise up and do something to get what was promised…is the GOI going to meet the demands? We know one of them is the currency reform. The demonstrators gave them 15 days to meet the demands.

Kaperoni – Dinar Guru   I am very confident with all of the economic activities going on in Iraq that they certainly will launch a market economy and receive private investment to rebuild the infrastructure next year. They must open the banking system for that to succeed and float the currency.

Mountain Goat – Dinar Guru   Article:  “THE NEW SESSION OF THE BAGHDAD INTERNATIONAL FAIR WILL WITNESS A MAJOR BREAKTHROUGH FOR THE CONTRIBUTION OF THE PRIVATE SECTOR”    …the more the private sector is engaged in Iraq the more likelihood they will have to change over from the currency auctions and go to a free market economy, thus get the currency on FOREX.

Larrykn – Dinar Guru  Articles:  “Iraqi protests turn deadly as security forces open fire on demonstrators“;  “UN expresses concern over violence in Iraq protests”  this should get the attention on the government. they better get going or the whole government will collapse. This might be the turning point for Iraq.

Dinar Investor – Jeff  …Historically they [Iraq] had a 3+ value…notice how they keep telling you they’re trying to come out with lower denoms and then back in August and September they put out all those articles telling you coins…so yes they will be coming out with coins and lower denoms at an increased rate…clear back into the early 1970’s they had a 3+ value…the article from yesterday said $3.37 as of 1973.  That’s before I was even born.  I was born in ’75.  That tells me Iraq is the wealthiest country in the world.  So when you come out and tell me, ‘Oh yeah we think the rates gonna go to 1+’,  I laugh in your face because Iraq is the wealthiest country in the world and back in ’73 they were holding a rate of $3.37.  That’s huge…

Adam Montana – Dinar Guru  Whether they barter directly for oil or not is kind of irrelevant. China probably doesn’t give a hoot either way, because they know exactly what we know – Iraq is rich with oil, Iraq will not be an impoverished land with no way to pay their debts, and Iraq has every ability to pay their debts… because of oil.  I wish I had a date to put out here, but you all know by now I won’t do that.  It sure does look promising, though! Iraq has an RV button to push…  [post 2 of 2]

Adam Montana – Dinar Guru   …OIL – currently WTI at $52.  Stable enough, no worries there.  Iraq and China was a big story last week, and it still is…There was some discussion on the topic of how Iraq will pay China. Some of the articles suggest Iraq will pay with oil, while others state it will be financed by oil…the exact method doesn’t matter. What is important to understand is that Iraq has oil.  That’s it.  [post 1 of 2]

Mountain Goat – Dinar Guru    Right now the rate is still being suppressed at the program rate. The program rate was supposed to be a temporary de-facto peg to the US dollar to help they through a time of high inflation and prevent hyper-inflation. The CBI has told us there is a process to getting the dinar “reinstated” and in use as an international currency once again. It is not as simple as just pulling a trigger and wamoo, the new rate appears on FOREX. [post 2 of 2]

Mountain Goat – Dinar Guru  Just remember the banks do not make the decision for anything. They simple want the new rate to show up on FOREX and when it does they can use it “legally” to exchange customers who to come in with their currency.  …When the IQD does come back on FOREX and the other global currency exchanges it is called a “reinstatement”.   The rate given hopefully will reflect the true and accurate value of the dinar.  [post 1 of 2]

Kaperoni – Dinar Guru    Iraq’s Parliament announced today the 2020 budget will be submitted around middle of October for review/voting. So we’ll get a good indication what they finally concluded the deficit will be.   Expectations are as high as $70 billion as they attempt to launch a private sector.

Breitling – Dinar Guru   Question:  I got another email from [broker name redacted] they’re currency buy back policy best rate in town …Do you think this is a good sign for us?]   Absolutely.  Why would [Broker Name] send out emails trying to buy back your currency at a higher value if the market didn’t demand for it?  It’s just a market demand.  So that makes sense right?  I’m telling you, people that I talk to that got into the ISX when I first got into investing in the Middle East – They wouldn’t touch the dinar.  Now they’re all trying to get it.  They can’t buy it at Chase Bank like I did.  So they’re going out and buying it and making sure that it’s all legit.  That’s where the demand is coming from…I’m very excited and you should be too

BGG ~ All reasonable assumptions… however incorrect they may be. We recently did the e-mailer. The market isn’t “demanding” a Buy-Back rate of $850 per million for uncirculated.

By paying the CBI rate plus a small premium – we are forcing everyone to PLAY FAIR with the consumer. We also sell for less.

We don’t have to – we CHOOSE TO.

This is the real story. We are pushing this market towards some sort of reasonable parity.

I guarantee the other dealers would love to go back to paying $500-$600 per million (they were trying – just recently).

Kaperoni – Dinar Guru   I want to point out to critical events between now and the end of the year. One is the vote through Parliament on Special Grades, the other being the 2020 budget which the supposed to include the launching of the market economy. Iraq is at a critical stage right now not only with an abundance of laws that still need to be passed, but they are in dire need to lure private investors in to rebuild.   [post 2 of 2]

Kaperoni – Dinar Guru  The Iraq government is striving to create a market economy with private investment. Doing so would bring substantial money into the country. This would create inflationary pressure on the financial system, the solution is to float the currency to relieve that pressure. It also would allow the CBI to profit by controlling the currency, buying and selling making commissions. Any kind of RV would circumvent those tools.   [post 1 of 2]

Dinar Investor – Jeff   [Article:  A surprising new forecast for the 2020 budget deficit]  …goes into detail about the 2020 budget…I’m done looking at the year of 19 and I’ve already advanced into the year of 2020…they’re telling you that the 2020 budget should create the conditions to support economic reform, reconstruction activities focused on immediate reforms and implementation of the government program…the government program is…all the government services after the rate change that are gonna be offered to the citizens post rate change to give them a better life…look at what they’ve linked to the 2020 budget…

Mountain Goat – Dinar Guru  …I have stated in the past that maybe in September the CBI might issue the new smaller categories if they were to follow the 2012 planned schedule. So it appears to us now they are not strictly following this plan.  …I am beginning to see that they are still moving towards an early Jan 2020 move since their accounting year begins on Jan 1st. We know they have told us through their past attempts to reinstate the dinar that this is the BEST and MOST CONVENIENT time to do so. [post 2 of 2]

Mountain Goat – Dinar Guru   …Well, well here we are done with September and it’s October already…Yes, the weeks and months are clicking away…  They…bash me for justifying this might just go all the way until early January 2020.   …SO, WHERE DO WE SIT RIGHT NOW WITH THE RV?  …We are just waiting on the CBI to launch the smaller of the small category notes. Remember they already launched the 250, 500 and 1000 notes way back in 2003 and in 2011 they told us these notes will REMAIN in circulation as part of the smaller category notes… We are waiting for notes yet even of smaller denominations. [post 1 of 2]

Dinar Investor – Jeff   …looks like the Nasdaq/ISX news was nothing more than a software upgrade…I strongly put an emphasis for you over the weekend that the whole software thing between NASDAQ and ISX was nothing more than a software upgrade and the second item I brought to you was I told you that all the marching and protesting would amount to nothing…so far you guys are seeing that…

Kaperoni – Dinar Guru   …Frank thinks something has to happen by tomorrow Oct 1st because the new FOREX/ISX agreement goes into effect.  Wrong!  …It’s a renewal and software agreement. Nothing more.

Kaperoni – Dinar Guru    The Arab Monetaty Fund is now including Iraq’s stock exchange among the 17 financial markets registered within the AMF.  Good news and a clear step in the right direction.

BobTheTaxMan  …we know the CBI has set it up so they are not selling dinar outside the country at this point and time.  All of these dealers…are buying dinar internally inside the United States and then reselling it.  That’s all they have.  That’s the market.  They are limited now.  They can’t get it anymore.  We also know the note count is being reduced.  The accessibility to it is just not there.  I realize we have not had a physical change in the value…but just take a look at the fact that the accessibility to it has become very limited.  Very limited.  That means somewhere down the line this thing is going to have value…

Dinar Investor – Jeff    …Iraq itself is not in charge of the timing of the rate change.  External powers are…this is not the first time that they’ve marched and protested from being unhappy because the government is not fulfilling their promise and obligations to the citizens…over the next few weeks you’re gonna see that all this marching and protesting is going to amount to nothing…

Larrykn – Dinar Guru   I was just reading the imf article iv. that Kap [Kaperoni] is always talking about, I see a lot of things in there that need to get done and what they want to do…one is they want to reduce to zero the money owed to the IOC’s (international oil companies) they also want to get rid of the MCP, So here is my ?. If they get rid of the MCP how can they maintain the buying and selling rates when its at 1160…they do the auctions now, using the USD, when that goes away, then what?.   also the big issue I see them having was Isis. That seemed to have put a big wrench into the economy. Seems they are working on that now…but so far I have not seen where they are talking about floating a currency gradually. I see them doing other things gradually but so far and I’m still reading I don’t see that about currency.

BobTheTaxMan – Dinar Guru  [Question:  Do you think we will need receipts to claim what we have to cash in?]  Absolutely not…now, if you were playing the capital gains game, yeah that would matter.  But it’s not.  But we know and I’ve said it over and over, this is going to be treated as ordinary income…

Kaperoni – Dinar Guru    There’s only two options on the table. Parliament has talked about doing a LOP which is a neutral event and you make no money.  But if it goes up after the lop you might double your investment.  Or the CBI could follow the directive from the IMF, and Float the currency. Which would allow for a gradual appreciation over several months or even years. In doing so allowing them to reduce the currency in circulation at the same time.  But I assure you they’ll never be a significant RV. It’s just not possible.  If you’re serious about learning about your investment I would start with reading the IMF Article IV Consultations…

(Did he mean there will?!?)

Breitling – Dinar Guru  …the best numbers I can come up with and I’ve said this before, you’re talking .51, .52, .53 cents. That makes sense because when you look at the gas [oil?] prices and you look at their budget that they have to maintain and then you look at what markets that they’re in to cover all that you need  at least .52, .53 cents.  Think of it as almost as the same budget as Brazil.  Because Brazil’s currency is about 1/2 of the United States.  I don’t know what it is right now but it used to be back in the day [1 Brazilian Real = .24 USD] You can compare the budgets and see what they’re doing…

Adam Montana – Dinar Guru   Iraq is meeting with China this week, and China may be stepping in to develop some infrastructure in Iraq…Seriously – China building roads or other essential things in Iraq…it’s just the tip of the iceberg. It’s a tiny piece of the complex picture that makes it possible for Iraq to increase the value of their currency…This China thing could be a MAJOR jump ahead for Iraq if it’s done right.  …China isn’t new to this game.  Neither is Iraq…Iraq also has a neat position in the world, and I think we all know what that is. And now I hope you can understand how they could easily use China to help them focus on their true assets, and make some major moves forward…This could all be happening in the next week or so. It’s going to happen quickly when it does…

Dinar Investor – Jeff…Iraq just shifted gears on you…they have to have a permanent completed formed government without proxy positions…the Education Minister has to be voted in and then as of this morning the news is telling you that “temporary” does not mean “stability”.  They have to get rid of the temporary proxy positions during the month of October…basically they’re telling you they have a drop dead date of October 24th…this throws a curve-ball into things…

Sandyf – Dinar Guru    “Five Trillion Dinars in Circulation Now, Tlar Saleh”   People really need to understand the difference between currency in circulation and currency circulated. The CBI accounts show an amount in respect of their liability for currency in circulation which includes all currency such as bank deposits and out of the country. The article is referring to circulated currency, do people really think that currency in bank accounts and out of Iraq gets worn out and damaged and in need of replacement.  As for the auctions, just part of the circulation mechanism. One of the methods used to convert the USD income revenue into dinar to fund the budget. The 2019 budget was around 130 Trillion dinar, where does the money come from if not from converting USD to dinar.