Dinar Observer Daily

Chattels – Dinar Guru   [Is this ever gonna happen]   I cannot think of much reason that it would happen this year.  Other than to think that it may happen when one would least expect it.

BGG ~ Such a cheery bunch lately.

Mountain Goat – Dinar Guru   Article:  “TO ENACT THE LAW OF FINANCIAL ADMINISTRATION”   Quote:  “…the Committee is keen to enact the law of financial administration as it gives a complete road map of the financial policy in the country in terms of management of money and cash in the state…” I don’t know exactly how long this will take but it is very good news.    I quote from the article. – “the change will raise the exchange rate of the Iraqi dinar against foreign currencies”.  We wait and see what happens.

Mountain Goat – Dinar Guru   …there is NO sound or reasonable evidence that the Iraqi dinar will or can RV anytime soon…the window of opportunity quickly closed at the end of March 2019 when the government had the CBI send out the electronic payment files and paid out at the old 1180 rate. The only window we now know is for January 2020. Could this change? Yes, it could but there is no sign or evidence it has or will. …So now April is just about gone and we will see what May brings us.  Remember April showers brings May flowers so we wait and see…

Mountain Goat – Dinar Guru   CLARIFICATION OF THE STALLING TO FORM THE LAST OF THE CABINET …the only reason is that these coalitions realize how important these positions are and want their own person in the positions. That is all it is. It has NOTHING to do with stalling using this as an excuse to hold up the RV and currency reform…There is NO connection!

Larrykn – Dinar Guru    Articles:  “Memorandum of understanding between the Union of Iraqi contractors and Turkish counterpart“;  “Ministry of construction signed a contract setting up desalination project schemes in Basra with an Austrian company.”  Lots of good deals are being made right now,  I still say if Iraq can get out of their own way, good things will happen.

tman23 – Dinar Guru   …coming September 25th there will be a NEW CBI GOVERNOR… This is a FACT!   So yes its stewing…but will the do it for the second quarter or wait until they seat the new CBI governor and roll to first of the year…sit back and watch mid June along with first signal will be new currency… [post 2 of 2]

Mountain Goat – Dinar Guru   Article:  “PARLIAMENT WILL VOTE NEXT TWO WEEKS ON INDUSTRIAL CITIES LAW”  Quote:  “…this law is important and it is necessary to be resolved during this stage in order to provide the appropriate environment in the provinces for all industrial companies for the purpose of employment and activating the private sector, noting that the LAW EXEMPTS COMPANIES FROM FEES AND CUSTOMS.”   …being exempt from fees and customs is part of what companies need to come in and invest in Iraq. So this is a good start. But there is also an investment law that needs revisions and to be passed also.

Mountain Goat – Dinar Guru   The news today is mostly all about getting investors in Iraq. They know they need to kickstart their economy somehow but can’t just seem to be able to do it with any level of success. But the news today suggest maybe they might move ahead finally in the coming weeks and months.  There are still no signs from the CBI of an urgent pending reinstatement of the dinar any time soon…  Article:  “POST OF GOVERNOR OF THE CENTRAL BANK OF IRAQ”  Quote:  “It is noteworthy that some sources said earlier, that the post of governor of the Central Bank will be a coalition led by Moqtada al-Sadr.”  I am seeing that Sadr is NOT pleased with the efforts of the CBI and still feels it is enormously corrupt and not doing all the necessary actions too deal with it.  Sadr also wants currency reform and wants it NOW.

tman23 – Dinar Guru  …The news I have is follows…May 6 is Ramada…on that date what I have known for past week or so is that there is a HUGE DEAL between US and China for $$$ and that appears to have some regards to a payout for citizens…IQD is what I hope it is but I suspect we should see lower denoms enter the picture and sometime estimate 6 weeks after the May 6 date around 6-15 possibly the change to IQD however they have decided to execute it…  [post 1 of 2]

Kaperoni – Dinar Guru   [The new CBI bank being built makes me think they need a world tradable dinar to go along with that Big Fancy Bank!]  For sure. Article VIII is coming.

Mountain Goat – Dinar Guru   …The Iraqi Central Bank determines the reinstatement timing not the banks…The bank screen with rates have very little to do with the process other than they are at the VERY last point in the food chain in the process…  By the time they are of any significance we would have already known about all these other points and we would know for sure that the reinstatement has already occurred.  The CBI also is going to let us know and not just pop this out on its citizens without sufficient warning. We have been told this by the CBI itself over and over again and each time they attempted to reinstate this has been the case…

MilitiaMan – Dinar Guru  Article:  “US agency: Baghdad Tehran to negotiate the purchase of natural gas in Iraqi dinars”   It looks like the work in progress is heating up since late last year.  Now that Iraq and Iran must make a deal in dinar to circumvent sanctions (possibly have made one)…I suspect the pressure in Iran is red hot to get a proper deal done with the neighbor and in a currency that has value or at least adjust as to not take a hit in trade value between Iraq, and so an appropriate deal can be utilized to alleviate disparity in exchange rates and to avoid sanctions by the rules in place per the USA…We shall see if Iran makes a proper deal to sweeten the pot or not for her citizens. My take is regardless, it is getting very hot…IMO

Delta – Dinar Guru   URGENT FROM IRAQI TV:   US AGENCY…BAGHDAD NEGOTIATE TEHRAN TO BUY NATURAL GAS IN IRAQI DINARS…

Kaperoni – Dinar Guru   [Isn’t the present PM much more reluctant to do this?…]  No I believe Mahdi is very pro reform. He once wrote article on the dinar appreciation years ago…maybe 2010ish.

Mountain Goat – Dinar Guru   Article:  “PARLIAMENT WILL VOTE NEXT TWO WEEKS ON INDUSTRIAL CITIES LAW”  Quote:  “…this law is important and it is necessary to be resolved during this stage in order to provide the appropriate environment in the provinces for all industrial companies for the purpose of employment and activating the private sector, noting that the LAW EXEMPTS COMPANIES FROM FEES AND CUSTOMS.”   …being exempt from fees and customs is part of what companies need to come in and invest in Iraq. So this is a good start. But there is also an investment law that needs revisions and to be passed also.

Mountain Goat – Dinar Guru   The news today is mostly all about getting investors in Iraq. They know they need to kickstart their economy somehow but can’t just seem to be able to do it with any level of success. But the news today suggest maybe they might move ahead finally in the coming weeks and months.  There are still no signs from the CBI of an urgent pending reinstatement of the dinar any time soon…  Article:  “POST OF GOVERNOR OF THE CENTRAL BANK OF IRAQ”  Quote:  “It is noteworthy that some sources said earlier, that the post of governor of the Central Bank will be a coalition led by Moqtada al-Sadr.”  I am seeing that Sadr is NOT pleased with the efforts of the CBI and still feels it is enormously corrupt and not doing all the necessary actions too deal with it.  Sadr also wants currency reform and wants it NOW.

Mountain Goat – Dinar Guru    We wait for the CBI to make the next move and launch the other needed smaller categories. This is when we go to the bank. They will have to raise the RATE (of exchange).Note I did not say VALUE since we all should know the value is already in the Iraqi dinar. What we want is a reinstatement to the global currency exchanges and with this a justified new rate to coincide and to reflect with its current VALUE.   [post 2 of 2]

Mountain Goat – Dinar Guru   Iraq has been sucking in these large 3 zero  notes “unofficially” when they went to electronic payment system. By means of not redistributing these 3 zero notes over and over again during payrolls, they essentially were able to collect nearly 2/3 of them and get them out of circulation. The remaining 1/3 the CBI says will remain in circulation and “coincide” with the newer smaller category notes. So far they are using three denominations of the lower categories 250, 500 and 1,000.    [post 1 of 2]

Chattels – Dinar Guru  There is no transparency in Iraq or about any revaluation of it’s currency.  If the dinar is to have any sudden increase in value then we will not be told in advance and no one reading the news will be able to reliably anticipate such, IMO.

Larrykn – Dinar Guru   Boy with all these articles coming out about stability I see Iraq moving again in the right direction.  I see a lot more they need to get done but they are moving in the right direction.  I think once they feel they are comfortable with were they are at, then they will do it…no time lines just when.  I would like to see the banking improve, stability improve,, the government improve , investment coming in. these are a few of what I like to see happen.

Adam Montana – Dinar Guru   The two largest borders are Iran and Saudi Arabia.  Both countries present opportunities for oil delivery… in order to sell their oil, they must deliver it. In order to deliver the oil, it must get to the sea, unless they are to limit their market to the 6 countries that border them… and why would other oil rich countries pay a premium to Iraq?  They would not, and will not. So it’s in Iraq’s best interest to have great relationships with it’s neighbors, and it’s important that the global market approves of these relationships.  Iran and Syria are questionable allies…but Saudi Arabia is a solid partner.  This is why I’m excited to see Iraq buddying up with Saudi Arabia, and it’s even more exciting that it’s not exactly clear what Saudi Arabia has to benefit at this time.  I think we all know, or can use our imaginations.     …Saudi Arabia has a longstanding position of “middle”…not anti-Iraq, but not the opposite either. Why, now, are they opening their arms? Maybe someone is expecting a change, and they want pole position. [post 2 of 2]

Adam Montana – Dinar Guru   …one quick clarification – earlier this week I said PM Abadi was in Saudi Arabia on business. Obviously this was a mistake, as the current Prime Minister of Iraq is no longer Abadi. Nonetheless! The actual PM of Iraq, Abdul Mahdi, was indeed in Saudi Arabia – and the resulting news is a bit of a present, if you ask me.  As I was getting ready to post this, a perfect article was posted. The focus is heavily on Iraq, the benefits to Iraq, and not much else.  In what world is that a deal we expect to see from the Saudis… are they suddenly charitable people operating for the sole purpose of World Peace and charity?  I don’t think so. Therefore, the equalization simply isn’t being mentioned.  Article:  “Historical agreements between Iraq and Saudi Arabia” …Saudi Arabia is important to Iraq. …Iraq has 3 major countries that border it, and only one actual connection to water. Aside from that small bit of beach…Iraq is landlocked.  [post 1 of 2]

Mountain Goat – Dinar Guru   Article quote:  “The Central Bank of Iraq (CBE) launched a branch of the Basra branch on Thursday to develop a window from the issue division to provide small groups of 250, 500 and 1,000 dinars.”   This is really the only article worth showing today of any real value to us as investors. So we know that these other smaller category notes such as 25, 50, 100 etc.. are not NOT yet launched.  …They are NOT yet out. …this article is proof enough that the only smaller categories out are still these 250, 500 and 1000 notes.

MilitiaMan – Dinar Guru   Article:  “Central Bank Basra branch introduces a window to provide small cash categories”   Quote:  “The Central Bank of Iraq (CBE) launched a branch of the Basra branch on Thursday to develop a window from the issue division to provide small groups of 250, 500 and 1,000 dinars.”   Smalls are available! holy smokes… 250, 500, 1,000s are lower denominations not small categories...  It appears to me they are saying they have all groups, and in my opinion that means small categories as well.  The article told us about new products. Well all groups will be about new products. As in small category ones. Mahdi and the CBI told us they are going raise the exchange rate.. Well they will need the new products to do so. This tells us they have all groups! imo…

Mountain Goat – Dinar Guru   Article: “MINISTRY OF INDUSTRY AND MINERALS CALLS ON GOVT TO STOP SELLING THE DOLLAR AT THE CENTRAL BANK AUCTION”  This is the first time recently that anyone from Iraq has come out and spoken to STOP the currency auctions.  …just like we have been saying all along this is prohibiting the take off of industry and the economy. It is also lessening the reserve amount. In another article today we see the CBI reserves are only $62 billion. This is not far from the amount told to us last Oct 2018. We can do the math ourselves and see that the reserves should be at least $70-80 by now. I am saying this going back to Dr Shabibi times at the rate the reserves used to grow from oil revenues. Strong CBI reserves means a strong dinar.

Adam Montana – Dinar Guru   Iran and Iraq are friendlier than I like, but that’s an emotional opinion rather than a business one. Iran is in a geographical position to be beneficial to Iraq, and Iraq does have a large percentage of it’s population that is sympathetic to Iran, so some buddying up is to be expected and will not prevent or delay a restructuring or revaluing of their currency.  Iran is handicapped by sanctions at the moment, so they are of less help than they would be otherwise.  Saudi Arabia, on the other hand, is not crippled at all. They are powerful, in good graces on many accounts, and are getting friendlier with Iraq than they have in the past. Since Iran is not the most capable ally to Iraq, does it surprise anyone that PM Abadi is in Saudi Arabia today…discussing trade, policy, and OIL? Abadi is currently on day 1 of a 2 day visit. I am crossing my fingers for some solid progress as a result of the things I’ve just mentioned.   I think we’re going to see HCL news quicker than they are letting on.  [post 2 of 2]

Adam Montana – Dinar Guru   There was a bit of suspense regarding Iraqi Parliamentary activity today. The Financial Management aspect was pushed off, but I don’t see that as a major factor. The other 5 matters were attended to, from what we can tell…5 out of 6 is a huge improvement over what we used to see out of Parliament!   This is just another testament to the progress Iraq has made and continues to make. Oil…I know I don’t have to harp on this, but oil is a big deal and Iraq is focused heavily. In fact, OIL wasn’t even officially on the agenda for today’s Parliament votes, yet it was still a heavy matter of discussion.  I’m reading into that part. It wasn’t even on the official agenda, but it was a major point of discussion. The goal, as stated by all reports, is to get affairs in order quickly. That makes sense to me, and I’m keeping a keen eye on things.  To add to that thought, let’s consider the current global situations of two other countries that are relevant to Iraq’s progression: Iran and Saudi Arabia… [post 1 of 2]

Chattels – Dinar Guru  Article “Iraq’s central bank announced on Tuesday that Iraq’s foreign currency reserves rose to $ 62 billion. “The bank’s foreign exchange reserve rose from $ 40 billion to $ 62 billion,” said Central Bank of Payments director general Doha Abdul Karim. “The central bank has managed to control the level of inflation and maintain prices and maintain the purchasing power of the national currency, and adjust the exchange rate and close the gap.”  The Iraqi Central Bank, on July 12, 2018, that Iraq’s foreign currency reserves amounted to 55.7 billion dollars, noting that Iraq has 89 tons of gold.”

Kaperoni – Dinar Guru …The government needs to…make significant strides towards stopping bribes, payoffs, money laundering and theft.  CBI still as far as I know has not implemented Deposit Insurance. Thesafeguard is an absolute must for investors to bring their money to Iraq.  And lastly I believe the CBI needs to accept the conditions of IMF Article VIII to allow freedom of movement of capital. In other words allow investors to get their profits out.  These are not all mandatory but are significant enough to stop investors from bringing their capital to Iraq. And after all what we’re looking for is significant investment capital to begin to create a private sector. [Post 2 of 2]

Kaperoni – Dinar Guru   Most people that follow me know what we’re waiting on before will start to see any activity as far as the currency rising in value. But for those that don’t know I’ll recap a few of them...It is a must that they finish filling the final three or four ministers that are missing in the new government.  Parliament needs to start passing some laws. These laws will make it more appealing for investors to come to Iraq. There are several still outstanding.  Stability still needs to improve in some areas mostly outlining areas where construction will take place. [Post 1 of 2]