Dinar Observer Daily

Doc.K – Dinar Guru   Article  “Washington announces buying 17% of Iraqi oil exports”   [Is this 17% significant?]  Yes I believe so… When I read that…I assumed…that the 17% (that the USA is buying) of Iraq’s oil export revenue…is most likely going straight to the Kurds to shut them up.  I say the HCL is DONE at this point.  Since the USA is NOW an exporter of oil, why would we buy from them?

Mountain Goat – Dinar Guru  Rumor…:   The IQD is now international.  Folks I will tell you one more time that the IQD is NOT yet international and if it was it would have to be “reinstated” first and if it was reinstated we would all be at the banks already…It is that simple…if it was international already thus “reinstated” it would have to be back on the global trading platforms, we would not be waiting so long for the rate to rise since the traders, through demand, would bring the rate up already by now…The CBI itself has told me and still tells me they are waiting to “reinstate” the IQD.

Delta – Dinar Guru  [via Clare]  the lifting of the 3 zeros, looks on target for the end of the year!

Bloodloch – Dinar Guru   …the CBI absolutely CAN launch the VLD (very low denominations) without any further preparation other than printing them and explaining to the Iraqi citizens about their characteristics.  No long and slow climb needed, since purchasing power should remain a constant, or even enticingly favorable to Iraqis in their daily lives. The underlying support for turning 44 trillion into 44 billion is there, and there may even be a case made for fractional reserve gold-backing mechanisms should they decide that to be one of the new currency characteristics. And while there have been some rumors of new notes being printed already, I’ve yet to see any actual artwork for the same. That doesn’t mean they don’t have them hidden away somewhere. Just that I haven’t seen them.

MilitiaMan – Dinar Guru   Article:  “Center: Islamic banking in Iraq is in line with international standards”  This is telling me they have tapped into one of the largest markets in the world.  Not a laughing matter. It is actually very very bullish for our investment. They are recognized now for having been caught up to and in line with international standards…Well done!

Mountain Goat – Dinar Guru  But we can see that they have surely moved already to the next level and important step. For years and years they struggled just to get the banking reforms in place. Not they have the ATMs running, electronic payrolls, electronic POS, credit cards, and emphasis on just petty cash and not wads of cash in pockets the day on and after payday. We see the banks are now liquid and loans are being given based on “credit rating” criteria. So this economy is slowly being converted over to the global banking systems. So much progress has been made towards the “project to delete the zeros”.   [post 2 of 2]

Mountain Goat – Dinar Guru   The CBI has told me many times that they can not just launch these very low. lower denominations like the new polymer 5,10,25,50 100 and coins until the economy is suited for them. So how do they get the economy suited for them? They have a plan. First they must slowly make the 250, 500 and 1000 in demand, use electronic banking for larger purchases, then as the economy grows begin to launch these other notes. I would be looking for the 50 and the 100 notes next. At some point they will reinstate the dinar but we don’t know just at what point of equilibrium it will be. To do this means an educational process of what these newer polymer notes look like and how to use them.  [post 1 of 2]

Breitling – Dinar Guru  …We are kicking butt and taking names in Iraq.  Don’t get too stuck on $55 [price per barrel] that it has to be there.  I say you change the value of the currency before that but that’s just me…If it goes below…what they need for price per barrel for the country to function…they’re definitely going to need to add value to their currency to be able to make up for that…This is the language coming out of the committees…they are looking at being able to do business with the west. And they’re looking at sidetracking any policy that OPEC gets together and we’ll see what they do.  No body knows what they’ll do.  This is the language.  The other thing is ok, they’re in the…western markets, ‘why don’t we start adding value to our currency so we can get that much more into our markets.’  Do you see what I’m saying?  That’s what they’re talking about.  That’s the language that they’re using.  How they’ll do it?  When they’ll do it? [He doesn’t know either]  But everything is in place exactly what we’ve been talking about.  We’re watching it like we’re supposed to and that’s all we can do.  I’m very very happy about what’s going on…   

Breitling – Dinar Guru   …Understanding what Iraq needs to do.  Understanding where Iraq’s currency is at and looking at the historical numbers on where they lost it’s value…how they keep their value down.  What advantages they have keeping the value down.  What advantages do they have…adding value to it.  There’s nothing more than that…we’re speculating based on those principles. And that’s how people do it.  A lot of the people that were involved in helping that country [Iraq] set up their currency are officials in the United States.  I know these people.  Not all of them, some of them.  They all have dinar…  

David M. Witty – Dinar Guru   Iraqi Parliament excepted to vote tomorrow on remaining unfilled cabinet positions.

Breitling – Dinar Guru  Article: “Iraq, Kuwait and Qatar are the only major OPEC producers able to balance their budget.  According to current prices of 58 dollars per barrel Iraq, Kuwait and Qatar are the only major producers who can balance their budget…Kuwait needs $48 to reach break even point.  While Qatar can balance it’s budget by a barrel of oil of about $47…according to IMF data Iraq requires $55 per barrel.”  So there we have it…the budget that I had and the numbers I was looking at was about $58 to $60.  So I don’t know where these numbers come from but let’s assume these guys are right they’re saying the data came from the IMF.  “Iraq requires $55 per barrel to achieve a break.  Saudi Arabia needs $88.”  We know Saudi Arabi doesn’t need $88 anymore because they got opened up to U.S. markets.  So the UAE needs $71.  Amman [Jordan] needs $77.  Iran needs $111…and Libya needs $114.  So that’s what we’re looking at, $55 per barrel.  Remember it’s long-term…We’re trying to shut out Iran.  We’re trying to offer a way out to Iraq that makes them a partner with us.  And they’re probably going to take it because they’re looking at what’s happening with Saudi Arabia.

Mountain Goat – Dinar Guru  Article:  “THE DELAY IN THE FORMATION OF THE GOVERNMENT IN BAGHDAD HAS HINDERED ACCESS TO LOAN FUNDS AND GRANTS”  so because it is taking so long to form this new govt, it is now beginning to overflow into the financial system of Iraq too. Can you see why they need to choose an honest minister of interior? So it not all about the dinar RV that is holding up the funding from investors but rather the elections.

Delta – Dinar Guru   “Iraq new 500-dinar note (B359a) confirmed”  “Iraq new 250-dinar note (B358a) confirmed”  THE 1000 NOTE WAS OUT LAST MONTH….BUT  250 500 JUST COMING OUT NOW FOR A REASON!!! 

Mountain Goat – Dinar Guru   So Thursday came and went and still no vote on the remaining two last ministers…the minister of interior and defense… But negotiations are now underway.  …President Barham Saleh confirmed the completion of the government formation in accordance with the constitution.  We know that Iraq had until Dec 4th to meet the constitutional deadline to form the government. But what about the other 2 ministers for Mahdi’s cabinet? So this news from Saleh is not entirely accurate. But technically they can say it is since Mahdi just uses the “proxy” excuse and assumes the interior and defense ministers himself.

MilitiaMan – Dinar Guru  “Live Iraqi Dinar (IQD) Exchange Rates…USD IQD   1190.00027  Dollars to Iraqi Dinar”   More progress and or fine tuning the line up. 5 digitis then 6? We shall see. What I would like to see is some small polymer notes and some fils… IMO to go along side those digits right of the decimal and a nice healthy number the the left.

MilitiaMan – Dinar Guru   Reporting or pairing is now in line for the list of currencies. Sort of additional education that is completed, imo. Those that will be needing to know can see the 4 digits to the right of the decimal.  Place the international calculation in and easy math. imo One more indicator the process is underway...

Breitling – Dinar Guru    Article: “Iraq denies report on Trump requesting oil for return for Baghdad war”  …I’ll tell you what’s going on.  This is not something you’ll read in the articles.  We are trying to do deals with oil markets with Iraq but it’s completely separate from what this is talking about…we know what Iraq needs to survive and we’re offering them a way out so that they’re in our camp.  

Adam Montana – Dinar Guru   Holding pattern on HCL. This is going to break soon. I’m watching it like a hawk and can’t WAIT for this to turn!  It is going to be in our favor. I’m betting big on this.

Breitling – Dinar Guru    …the price per barrel is going down.  So what do they [Iraq] do?  They can do what you and I are speculating on and add value to their currency but there are other stuff also.  Iraq wants to compete in the American markets.  We can do trade deals with them.  So that’s why Iraq shut the door on Iran because they’re looking for the same type of deal that Saudi Arabia had.  So now we have them in our pocket. 

David M. Witty – Dinar Guru   Iraqi Parliament to meet today but not expected to vote on unfilled cabinet positions.

Kaperoni – Dinar Guru  The launch of “golden opportunity” summit with 50 international companies has begun in Iraq.

Mountain Goat – Dinar Guru   Article:  “A “GOLDEN OPPORTUNITY” FOR IRAQI RECONSTRUCTION”   Quote:  “…WILL OPEN THE WAY FOR PRESENTING LARGE RECONSTRUCTION OPPORTUNITIES TO INVESTMENT COMPANIES…”  Oh – yet another investment conference. …There are still 111 bills carried over form the last parliament that need to be addresses. Many of these bills relieve the barriers in doing business within Iraq. So they can have all of these investment conferences they want but until they get these bills passed they are still going nowhere. Too bad they just can’t seem to work together to get this country moving forward. We can appreciate all that Hader al-Abadi did and so let’s not cut him short on his accomplishments.

Mountain Goat – Dinar Guru   I agree with Kap in that the CBI has told us this is a 3 year process. So we are now at the end of this process. In fact if we get out of this year we have passed it.  But remember the CBI just can’t trigger the event in a day and expect to transition the currency over that same day. It takes time and there are mechanisms to put in place over months if not years. One such mechanism was “electronic banking”. Another we can clearly see was the ATMs. In March-Oct we witnessed yet another the effort to get the people over to using the lower category notes. But this third mechanism only works because these other two mechanisms were already in place. If you are studying this process to delete the zeros you can clearly see the progression of what the CBI is doing to get them to the reinstatement time frame.

Kirk H. Sowell – Noted Author  So they managed quorum after all, with 168 MPs, parliament is meeting. But quorum is 165 so that’s a very narrow margin of error if they try to hold a vote, just four could walk out and break quorum.

David M. Witty – Dinar Guru   Iraqi Parliament delays vote on unfilled cabinet positions.  Iraqi Parliament meeting to approve unfilled cabinet positions ends in chaos & shouting among political blocs.

Kaperoni – Dinar Guru   [And The reason why the IMF  is still preventing Iraq to become ARTICLE VIII?]   They are in compliance now but have not had their 2018 Article IV Consultation yet because the government has not been officially formed. Though not a requirement, I do expect this consultation to occur before any move to Article VIII.

Sandyf – Dinar Guru  …Although what Kaperoni says is perfectly valid I would not agree. Floating the currency would not be a normal course of action for an emerging economy. Egypt was pushed into a float and look what happened…I doubt if that is what people want to see.  It is not only emerging economies at risk, the Russian Rouble became fully convertible in 2006 but avoided the risk of floating until 2014, again a significant drop in currency value. …I for one would hope that Iraq does not face similar problems.

Kirk H. Sowell – Noted Author   So today may be a big day in #Iraq politics, with parliament scheduled to meet…with completing the cabinet of PM Adil Abd al-Mahdi on the agenda. Or maybe it will wimper & fail to make quorum, or just skip the cabinet votes & be nothing.

Kaperoni – Dinar Guru  Looks like PM Mahdi will present the rest of his cabinet at tomorrow’s parliament session.

MilitiaMan – Dinar Guru   “Baghdad calls on Washington to cooperate in activating the terms of the Strategic Framework Agreement”  …the SFA…is a check list that has been a work in progress since 01/01/2009 and is still imo in effect, as noted above and will continue. The items show us that they have completed many many things and we just…yesterday indicators of direct investment…, yesterdays Tweet by Mahdi about Visas and…on Passports. If the item is in the SFA and being openly talked about now, is a good sign things are coming together very quickly now.  Well the SFA is about implementation of reforms.. Very, very, very good timing and it all looks like they are now asking to be released to fly with the new categories.  Some suggest they got the go ahead 12/02/2018. We shall see.