Dinar Observer Daily

Kaperoni – Dinar Guru   Most people that follow me know what we’re waiting on before will start to see any activity as far as the currency rising in value. But for those that don’t know I’ll recap a few of them...It is a must that they finish filling the final three or four ministers that are missing in the new government.  Parliament needs to start passing some laws. These laws will make it more appealing for investors to come to Iraq. There are several still outstanding.  Stability still needs to improve in some areas mostly outlining areas where construction will take place. [Post 1 of 2]

Sunkissed – Dinar Guru  This is a very BIG article when you break it down for us:

1. settlement of salaries of employees in the public and private sectors
2. integration of Iraq in the global economy
3. increasing geographical spread of banks
4. electronic payment and their impact in attracting the mass of cash
5. and the launch of deposit insurance
Why would they need these mechanisms AT A PROGRAM RATE?  They wouldn’t!!  I love this article!!   [post 2 of 2]

Sunkissed – Dinar Guru    Article:  “76.89 trillion dinars value of deposits in commercial banks” WOW!!!…HUGE HUGE statement:   “…in addition to Iraq rid of the financial crisis that hit in 2014”   They are saying here that they have overcome their financial crisis!!   AND the private sector deposits EXCEEDED the government deposits — looks like the mattresses are getting leaner!  And furthermore:  “the relationship between the citizen and the banking sector is witnessing a significant improvement”   The Iraqi’s are TRUSTING their banks! Think about the significance of this for a minute: Would you trust your bank if every. single. dictator. that you have ever had, has stolen your money and gold from your accounts? The CBI and Banks have accomplished GREAT strides for sure!!  [post 1 of 2]

MilitiaMan – Dinar Guru   Article:  “The stock market continues its high rise”  Quote:   “The number of shares traded 1,1 billion shares valued at 820.5 million dinars”  The volume has been increasing since ealier last week. A good sign confidence is gaining traction…imo A good thing!

Kaperoni – Dinar Guru    The dinar can never RV…The dinar will float, and will rise gradually over time as investment come to Iraq…not overnight.  Be patient.   …several good banking articles today including one from the IMF talking about the agreement they have with Iraq to diversify their economy…exactly what we been saying for years. 

Whitelions – Dinar Guru   Iraq assures the International Monetary Fund (IMF) that it is adopting a new policy to diversify its sources of income.

Don961 – Dinar Guru   Article:  “Agenda of the session No. (10) Monday, 15 April 2019”   Quote: “First:  Vote on the draft law amending the law of the recovery of Iraq’s money No. (9) for 2012…   Second: Vote on the draft law amending the Companies Law No. (21) of 1997. (Committee on Economy and Investment, Committee on Culture, Information, Tourism and Antiquities).”  2 economic votes Monday… big vote coming Wednesday…imo.

MilitiaMan – Dinar Guru   Article:  “Mohammed al-Halbusi to (Tigris): Washington is waiting for Iraq to rely on itself on the economic side”   …we see that the USA is calling for Iraq to rely on herself. Well to do that they’ll need to rely on the new strength that goes with internationalism.  Internationalism is at a true rate with hardy fundamentals, not a forced program rate from the past. Looks to me they were told time is up. So, I would then think that they are about to use the tools they have to finally do it. 

Kaperoni – Dinar Guru  …If and when the dinar begins to rise it will be gradual via a float to counter pressure…created from investment

Mountain Goat – Dinar Guru  Article:  “FINANCIAL INCLUSION WEEK WILL BE LAUNCHED 25TH OF THIS APRIL”  Quote:  “stimulating ENVIRONMENT FOR WITHDRAWING THE ACCUMULATED CASH MASS THROUGH THE PROVISION of various financial services”.   The CBI needs to get these dinar notes from out of the homes still stashed and get them out of circulation and into the banks. This is part of the project to delete the zeros.   Iraq does not want millions of millionaires. Just recently we read yet another article on this topic of these notes stashed in the homes and necessity to get them into the banks. So this makes twice recently on this topic.

Mountain Goat – Dinar Guru   2)  Also we know that a FREE MARKET economy will force Iraq to deal with international trade and so how cumbersome will this conversion of dinars to dollars $$$ be in draining the CBI reserves by these currency auctions?  They will have to move to a floating rate dinar and reinstate it to be ultimately successful in this FREE MARKET economy if this is truly where they want to go. Oh – but we also know that they can not move to reinstate the dinar unless the also complete the “project to delete the zeros”. The two efforts are interconnected. There is much resistance to both ideas and many economist have their opinions of the effects of both of them and so you see the real set of problems here?

Mountain Goat – Dinar Guru   …The news now from Iraq is all about two issues now:  1)  paying out the salaries and pensions and catching up on owed bills; 2)  getting investors to take hold in Iraq and the switch over from a CENTRALIZED GOVT RUN economy to a FREE MARKET economy.  I do not know how the full extent of these two main issues matter for the timing of the reinstatement, but I will say this:  1)  The IMF has always had a mandate that Iraq be able to pay its bills on time. They want Iraq to move forward to a more timely monthly payment schedule. This is monetary stability.

Larrykn – Dinar Guru   Article:  “The meeting is the first Iraqi Gulf for over 30 years.”   Quote: “…the first meeting between Iraq and the Secretariat of the GCC, in more than 30 years, leading to the signing of memorandums to boost security cooperation And military, as well as the launch of an investment conference in Baghdad soon to receive Gulf investments in Iraq…”  WOW: This is what we have been waiting to see, they are working on all the areas that need to be boosted. Iraq seems to want to get this done now, maybe changes are a coming .

G-Lin – Dinar Guru   Article:  “Iraqi-Gulf meeting is the first in more than 30 years”   Quote:  ” …the fruit of the first high-level meeting between Iraq and the GCC Secretariat for more than 30 years. For the launch of an investment conference in Baghdad soon, to receive Gulf investments in Iraq.”  This could be big. Iraq joining GCC could break some of that dependency on Iran…  

Larrykn – Dinar Guru   …I think most countries are pegged to the US dollar, so…saying they are against the us dollar means they are competing against the US dollar…I think that is right.  …the currency is adjusted to the GDP of the country. what that country has to offer, I think Iraq has a lot to offer and not just oil. with the private sector coming in , they will do quite well in the world

MilitiaMan – Dinar Guru   Article:  “Demands to create an economy based on international foundations”   Going to a free market economy is exactly what we have been waiting for…The amount of jobs that will be created will be huge…we just were told the 2018 budget had a surplus of $3 billion and that is to be used to benefit the citizens per the HML [MCL ?]!  Let’s also not forget the Turk model they are following requires that that law be in place and it is and was enacted 01/13/2019 and is being adjusted to and. Right on time.  So there is no surprise they are talking about going to a free market economy, as they have the checklist checked!  Imo.

Breitling – Dinar Guru    Things change…My confidence in the Iraqi dinar has never changed.  So they have to change the tactic on what they need to do to maintain a certain economy. They are adapting to whatever the market is going to be…You shouldn’t have any fear…In my view…the worst case scenario it gets to $2.70, $2.80 and this is within the GCC and the market…So I’m just thinking about that market and what’s involved.  And just like any other currency, is it too high within a market and then it won’t work…and if they avoid that and just get into the world market that’s not going to work.  They have to be locally plugged in and take advantage of the international markets.  [post 2 of 2]

Breitling – Dinar Guru   …The Iraqi dinar is going to revalue.  The west set it up to revalue.  Their banking system is set up for a higher rate to be able to participate in the world markets.  Everybody knows this…It’s going to revalue.  Do we know when?  Absolutely not.  And the way that it revalues things change.  It simply changes.  Think about…from 2011 to what it is today –   It’s a completely different world.  The projections are completely different.  You had senators getting up in the senate and saying there was 50 years of oil left…obviously they’re full of it.  Obviously they were lying and trying to create an artificial market…and they had a president that backed it all up…that’s why we live in a completely different world.  [post 1 of 2]

Breitling – Dinar Guru   …The GCC countries…are going to want to be a part of that…there are two things that have to happen.  Iraq has to revalue its currency to participate so they have the money to invest…If you’re getting less and less dollars because the price of oil is going down then they’re going to have to add value to their own currency to make up for that.  Also, if they go too high within the GCC…no one is going to invest in Iraq.  Why go to Iraq and pay $3.22…when you can go right next do or to Saudi Arabia and [pay] $.23 for whatever you’re buying.  What it does it puts a cap on how far the currency can go…that’s why I’m speculating that it will never get to $3.22.  And I could be completely wrong.  [Post 2 of 2]

Breitling – Dinar Guru    I noticed a big huge trend.  A little bit of fear.  And there is no reason for it…[My] statement…“I don’t think the dinar is going to get to $3.25.”  That is just my opinion…Where does that come from?…We understand the opportunity for them to revalue is oil prices.  Well there are other things on the table and it has to do the the GCC which is basically a trading block in the middle east.  …what’s being proposed for peace in the middle east between Israel and the countries that surround Israel will have an indirect effect for Iraq and its currency…and it’s all good news. …The United States has agreed to put 2 Trillion into helping and sustaining the framework of this trading block…  [Post 1 of 2]

Adam Montana – Dinar Guru   […do you see the passing of the 2019 budget with the old rate in it as significant? Do you think we will now need to wait until 2020 to see an increase in the rate?…]   No to both questions.  I’ll expand on that briefly – the budget as passed allocated a specific dollar amount to specific items. This dollar amount gives Iraq a functioning government and will not need to be changed with the rate.  

Delta – Dinar Guru   Article:  “IRAQ IS CLOSING IN ON A MAJOR ECONOMIC BREAKTHROUGH”   I LOVE IT….ALL OVER THE NEWS IN IRAQ…   MORE GOOD NEWS…”free-trade zone will be established between Saudi Arabia and Iraq“

Adam Montana – Dinar Guru When people see something rising in value, they predictably want to catch that wave…  People see other people making profits and want to join in, and again the herd mentality can push a stock or a currency or anything else that is being traded to levels that it shouldn’t actually attain.  Eventually the markets will stabilize, as they always do. In Iraq’s case, this is exactly why I lean towards a pegged RV rate opposed to a complete free float on the market.   It will be easier for them to control a major change if they also control the fluctuation, and they stand to make enough profits on an RV that they will be better served by taking the profits on a fixed spread rather than trying to “catch it at the top”. A pegged rate, at least initially, will allow them to control and maintain a higher rate.  They are doing all this with their actions in their government, and the price of oil going up at a steady and fairly predictable rate gives them the ability to create a solid path to higher profitability.  End result? Everything we’re looking for!   [post 3 of 3]

Adam Montana – Dinar Guru  Iraq’s currency price is based on their ability to sell it to other countries, just like any other country with a tradable currency. Their ability to sell their currency is determined by what other countries will pay for it – this is the basic concept of supply and demand. …In order for Iraq to raise the “sell” price of their currency, they have to create a strong market for it. …If Iraq wasn’t making progress towards stability and strength, we would have no chance of an RV. That is…not the case. Iraq IS moving in the right direction. …That’s really all this comes down to…Iraq’s ability to raise the value of their currency is based on the perceived ability to provide a solid expectation of return on investment.  [post 2 of 3]

Adam Montana – Dinar Guru   If you’ve kept up with my recent posts, you know I’m excited about oil…We finished the week still above $60 on the WTI charts… and still going strong.   BIG PICTURE TIME.  There are a lot of moving parts here, but the biggest thing we’re waiting on right now is the HCL.  There are a bunch of articles and news related to HCL, and I’m even getting some very encouraging private messages from my contacts about the progress, but the bottom line right now is this:  HCL has not been concluded at this time.  Therefore we have no RV…yet. Yet, we have reason to keep hanging on, and if I may be so bold…we have a damn good reason for it. [post 1 of 3]

G-Lin – Dinar Guru  …I’m not sure exactly why they are bringing it back. Will they add amendments? Will any additional amendments address a rate? Everything is guess work at this stage and I’m sure that’s deliberate.   They also changed the date on the introduction into Parl. again From Apr.10th to Apr. 17th.   I’m hoping we will learn a little more between now and the 17th. So we wait. But I like the direction this is taking. They just held a seminar on the deletion of zeros and that is encouraging. They definitely are talking about it…   [post 2 of 2]

G-Lin – Dinar Guru   The Financial Management Law {FML} was voted on in Parl. already on Jan.13th 2019. It is very long and detailed and was posted on the Parl. site. It tells us at the bottom of this posting that it was enacted. The definition of enacted is: Make a bill or other proposal a law.   However, in the…art… “Parliamentary Finance intends to develop mechanisms to maintain the stability of the dinar exchange rate”  …they say  “the financial Parliament is keen to enact the law of financial administration“.   So…    [post 1 of 2]

Larrykn – Dinar Guru   Articles:  “Trade show kicks off to members of the Organization of Islamic cooperation with Baghdad.“;  “Iraq: we hope to double bilateral trade between Islamic countries for more than 481 billion”   I like that they are getting all these trade deals together, this is a great start to the private sector we are all looking for.

Sandyf – Dinar Guru   […in all the yrs! The rate has never been in the budget.]  You are quite right, there is no rate in a budget.  Iraq, like many other countries and businesses, must publish their accounts and budgets in both local currency and USD so there is a rate of exchange between the 2 versions. As far as Iraq is concerned the rate makes little difference to their income revenue and the USD budget, whatever the rate they would still only get the market price for a barrel of oil.

Larrykn – Dinar Guru  I don’t think Kap is that far off to be honest, I can see this coming out as a float, I’m just not sure it will start where it is at now.