Dinar Observer Daily

Kaperoni – Dinar Guru  Parliament is in the process of preparing the 2020 budget. Described in the media as “the budget will be different directions next year to represent the government’s economic openness to investment and increase financial resources alternative to oil” and “indicating that the budget will create a qualitative boom in the Iraqi economy through drastic changes in public expenditure and investment funds and services.” Clearly this is important to the transition to a market economy…As well as they are building the expenditure into the budget for 2020. [post 1 of 2….stay tuned]

Kaperoni – Dinar Guru    Article VIII is absolutely necessary to invite investors and capital to Iraq. They will not get much help rebuilding the private sector if they do not do this.  Investors want to be able to get their profits out of Iraq and Article VIII is an important step to achieve this.

RVAlready – Dinar Guru    Just like Kuwait, Iraq will deny this is happening until after it happens. Do not expect advance confirmation of anything.

Kaperoni – Dinar Guru   The once [one?] restriction appears to be a combination of the CBI requiring participants in the auction to have a bank account, and also the 2% spread. It does say the IMF is monitoring the situation. It does seem to be something that can be resolved fairly quickly if need be and it will be interesting to see what the IMF says in the future on this since the CBI has meet the 2% spread rule for the past 16+ months.  [post 2 of 2]

EHankins – Dinar Guru​  Iraq is article 8… They have practiced it for nearly a year now. there is no fear they just need to speak it into the world...

Future – Dinar Guru   “Iraq continues to avail itself of the transitional arrangements under Article XIV, Section 2 but no longer maintains any exchange restrictions or multiple currency practices…”    …tells us Iraq restrictions have been removed…its time for the transition to article 8…article 14 is no longer needed…lets hope and pray they are confident enough to make that jump sooner rather than later.

Kaperoni – Dinar Guru   …Iraq has been clear of restrictions under Article XIV for some time, but still has one restriction under Article VIII they must overcome before they can officially accept Article VIII.

Mountain Goat – Dinar Guru    Article:  “REVEALED 17 CORRUPTION SUSPICIONS THAT HAVE PLAGUED IRAQ’S CENTRAL BANK OVER THE PAST YEARS”    So ending this issue of corruption is not as simple as some…tell you…they say, just RV, and the auctions go away and the corruption ends. Folks it is not that simple then to get the reinstatement (thus eventually a significant rate change we want) when there are billions being stolen. The longer it goes on the longer it will take to stop it. Remember that Dr Shabibi told us in a news media interview after the fact that the CBI had an “unprecedented opportunity” in 2013 to reinstate the dinar and end all this corruption but the corrupt politicians stopped it and reprevented it. This has been the case ever since…

Delta – Dinar Guru   FROM IMF REPORT:  “Iraq continues to avail itself of the transitional arrangements under Article XIV, Section 2 but no longer maintains any exchange restrictions or multiple currency practices subject to Article XIV, Section 2, and currently maintains one multiple currency practice (MCP) subject to Fund approval under Article VIII, Section 3.1”  BYE  BYE ARTICLE Article XIV …WELCOME ARTICLE VIII.

Chattels – Dinar Guru  Article: “IMF Executive Board Concludes 2019 Article IV Consultation with Iraq”  Nothing we have not heard before in this recent report, IMO. Iraq continues to have substantial shortcomings in various financial arenas. A cautionary tale of real problems and possible betterment. Tune in next year.

Delta – Dinar Guru  NOT OFFICIAL YET……. PARLIAMENT HAVE TO APPROVE HIM [New CBI Governor] FIRST….. ALAQ IS STILL IN UNTIL THEN…

Michael Cottrell – Guest Guru   [People want to know if you feel we are close to the reset and the revaluation?]    I hadn’t seen any progress in 15 years…since Trump got into office I have seen a tremendous amount of progress…Right now its like a landslide…its been picking up momentum…yes I think we are right on top of it… 

Larrykn – Dinar Guru   I understand the corruption in Iraq but I get to wonder if that will really stop them from moving on. They have always been corrupt but they seem to have manage to have their currency out to the world. The one thing that has change this time around is the fact that they have outside investor coming in. This IMO is the game changer and is why they are trying to get a handle on the corruption in Iraq. If they do I see a bright future for them if they don’t. We will be sitting here. No one will want to invest in a country that they wouldn’t know if their money is safe or not and they can get it out. We will see.

Mountain Goat – Dinar Guru    The FACT is that parliament is NOT going to let the CBI run itself and function totally independent with all the corruption going on within it.  This is a simple FACT…They already passed the “Financial Management Law” and within it makes them able to monitor and tell the CBI what to do. One aspect is first to get rid of the proxy positions within. This is now happening. Then they need to work on ending these currency auctions in a matter of however they do it.

Kaperoni – Dinar Guru    This is not speculation.  If you go back and look at the last Article IV consultation which might have been in 2016 or 17 they specifically said in there that they should accept article VIII to send a message to the world that Iraq’s banking system is open for business…Of course the dinar wasn’t in compliance then so they couldn’t.  The step holding them back was the ability to sustain and manage the currency for 90 days or more and its been 16 17 months now.  They have met the criteria.  They just need to write the letter…If they want the money and they want the investment.  And they want to rebuild they gotta put on the boots and jump across the pond… [Post 2 of 2]

Kaperoni – Dinar Guru    [Question:  Does the IMF have to invite Iraq into Article VIII or has the invitation been out there since the IMF has been working with Iraq?]  …They are not necessarily “invited” but they are in Article XIV…a developmental put your procedures in place and prove your abilities to manage money and to manage monetary policy.   It’s at a lesser level than Article VIII…There’s no specific time frame but…they’re supposed to be ‘constantly striving to move into Article VIII‘.  And they’re not going to get the benefits of Article VIII until they do.  If they remain in Article XIV the banking system remains closed because it’s a risky venture to engage with their banking system.  [Post 1 of 2]

Mountain Goat – Dinar Guru   Article:  “IRAQ: SIGNING OF A NEW AGREEMENT WITH THE US STOCK EXCHANGE ON THE TECHNOLOGY OF TRADING AND DEPOSIT SECURITIES”  If they were not going to relist (reinstate) the Iraqi dinar on FOREX then why …would they be getting all this Nasdaq technology synced up? Trading the ISX on Nasdaq can not happen without the reinstatement of the dinar on FOREX first. Get it? This is a FACT not my opinion. The placeholder for the IQD is already established on FOREX and we are waiting for the rate to pop in.

Kaperoni – Dinar Guru  The rate has not moved…its pegged to the dollar.  Monitoring any kind of Forex or other service is a waste of time because it’s just reflecting the dollar strengthening or weakening…the only official site for the dinar is CBI. IQ.  The Official Rate of the Iraqi dinar is 1190 and as I stated it is pegged. The Market Rate or Street Rate is the rate that the dinar is sold in Iraq which is currently around 1205 within the IMF 2% compliance…

Adam Montana – Dinar Guru    Iraq is currently in the final stages of preparation to return to their previous status in the world.  They are not a country that has been in poverty for centuries…they are barely over a decade into their current situation. They have had a short setback in their financial situation, but at their core they are a rich country and this is not a huge mental shift for them to return to prosperity.  The budget, in my opinion, is notsomething that will hold them back. A few strokes of the pen and some clicks of a mouse and the Budget is adjusted… [post 2 of 2]

Adam Montana – Dinar Guru   Iraq is currently operating on a budget fit for a pauper, even through by rights Iraq should be one of the wealthiest nations in the world.  Iraq has, in the past, operated on budgets and status befitting their actual situation – that situation being one of the wealthiest nations in the world…    The People who hold physical Dinar simply benefit by the increase in value, just like we will.  A new printed currency comes out within weeks or even days of the rate change, and we’re all aware that the new notes are ready to be printed, if not already printed and being held for distribution.   [post 1 of 2]

Kaperoni – Dinar Guru …I think it’s funny nobody ever knew what Article VIII was until me and Enorrste started talking about this seven or eight years ago…What Article VIII is an international standard that the IMF has created…All the central banks around the world try to achieve that level and the way it’s worded…‘they should constantly be striving to move to Article VIII’.  You don’t want to sit in Article XIV...

Kaperoni – Dinar Guru   ...This [International Monetary Fund] article IV consultation that took place just a couple of months ago is being created now and printed.  My understanding is it said July in the press release.  This is a significant item for us to review because what is it going to say?  Is it going to encourage them to move to Article VIII and open up for business?  Or is it going to say something we don’t want to read?  We won’t know until we read it.  You wouldn’t have all these activities happening in Iraq if the financial system needed the brakes to be put on...We said a year and a half ago they are never going to go into Article VIII until they are in 2% compliance…nothing ever happened because they weren’t in compliance…[They are now in compliance]…

Sandyf – Dinar Guru   …no chatter on that imf consultation that happened the other day…The Art 4 consultation was held in May and the report has to be approved by the board before being published. It is due to be published in July but not as yet.  Rest assured that when it is published there will be significant chatter.

Enorrste – Dinar Guru   Question: …do you think this float may cause a meteoric rise in the value…it’s going to skyrocket in value quickly…?…The CBI has very cautiously moved step-by-step to get every single thing they can think of in place.  When they pull that trigger they are going to have controls just like they’ve put controls for the last three or four years.  They are going to have controls that will allow them to control the rise of the float.  What they don’t want is meteoric.  It will be too scary for them.  They have to control it…I do think it’s going to go quickly.  I think within 3 years we’ll see $3.00.  That’s my own personal opinion…but I do think they’re not stupid and if it starts to be crazy they are to put a ratchet in there…

Kaperoni – Dinar Guru  Question: …We would get people who would ask us about cashing out and what the next stage is and what should we do?  We don’t speculate on that…but what I can tell you is we are not going to abandon ship when and if the dinar starts to go up in value and a mechanism is in place for people to cash out or deposit their dinars into an account…it will occur and be news to all of us and we’ll all learn together.  You’re not going to have to get up at 6am and go stand in line at a bank.  It’s not gonna happen like that.  We’ll all learn together.  Just like in the past when we talked about this investment we’ll present whatever information that comes forward…  

Larrykn – Dinar Guru   Lots of news out there lately and I’m not one to do any type of predicting and won’t but I think the news coming out of the CBI is good for us, sooner or later Iraq will have to do something and when they do we will be real happy . Until then we wait and see.  Some people say not this year and they might be right but then I feel Iraq is behind the steering wheel and will control when all this takes place, Kap posted about Iraq GDP being over 8 % next year , wow that is impressive if they do it. But I wouldn’t sell the house of that until we see what they really do. Time will tell.

Enorrste – Dinar Guru  …It’s like what happened in China when we allowed them into the WTO.  They went up to 12% growth.  That’s how China became a threat to us.  We made that happen.  Anyway, if they [Iraq] go to that point the pressure on the dinar’s value which is currently fixed would be enormous and they would be foolish not to let it float to reduce the inflationary pressure...there is no direct connection between 8.1% and how much money we’re going to make.  But I can say this, if they go to a float and if they get to 8.1% you’re going to make a lot of money.  A lot of money.  That’s all I can say.  [Post 2 of 2]

Enorrste – Dinar Guru   Question:  8.1% – would that translate to very much inflationary pressure?  There is no direct connection between the rate of growth of the GDP in Iraq and the value of the dinar.  The dinar is currently fixed in value.  If however the Gross Domestic Product of Iraq triples next year from the current 3% or whatever it is to 8.1% that is enormous economic growth.  Take America, Under Obama we never got above 2%.  Trump got us to 3.3% and we have the hugest economy in the world in two years…and it’s only 3.3% so if Iraq goes from 3% to 8% in 7 to 10 months or all of next year which is 18 months that is truly phenomenal growth… [Post 1 of 2]

Kaperoni – Dinar Guru  Generally speaking…they [The CBI/Iraq} want price discovery.  They want the world to set the [dinar] rate. What they’re saying is ‘We are not going to change the value of our currency until investors come in and say they want to help us.’  That’s really what they’re doing.

Enorrste – That’s very well stated.  Of course the investors are saying exactly the opposite.  ‘We are not going to invest until you show us you have an open currency.‘ So it’s a catch 22.  Eventually they’ll do it.  They’re playing chicken…

Kaperoni – Dinar Guru   A company called SAP announced a few weeks ago that they are…opening an office in Baghdad.  One of the things they say in the article is “the real GDP growth in Iraq is expected to double by about 3 times to 8.1% in 2020.“… right now I think it’s at 2 point something.  This company SAP who has come in with an investment strategy they believe the GDP in Iraq is going to 8.1%…If anyone thinks this is going to drag out another year, a year and a half, two years I think they’re kidding themselves…we’re talking in the next 7 to 12 months they expect the GDP to raise that high.