Dinar Observer Daily

Adam Montana – Dinar Guru    Iraq needs HCL (oil law) to really kick things into high gear. The oil law is many things, but of extreme importance is it’s scope regarding Kurdish relations with Baghdad inside the country.   Article quote:  “This agenda has been developed in accordance with the political agreements between all parties which compose the new cabinet of the KRG…”   That’s excellent stuff regarding the HCL…

Enorrste – Dinar Guru  [The Liberalization of prices is the most important implication in the market economy…]. I can’t help but believe that means floating the currency.  You can’t liberalize the price without changing the value…I don’t know why he didn’t say float the currency but he called it liberalization of prices.  Sounds like a float to me…wow.

Kaperoni – Dinar Guru  Anyone who says nothing is happening in Iraq or there’s no progress is really missing the boat because these types of things that may not be effecting us yet are major accomplishments.  Remember post war Iraq was literally off the map.  They had to rebuild everything from the ground up and to talk about a financial system now that’s engaging and preparing the financial system, inter-banking, markets, the electronic banking, ATMs and all that…they’re going from the Stone Age…

Kaperoni – Dinar Guru    It has been 16 months that the CBI has stabilized the currency in the country to within 2% as identified by the IMF requirement…that’s been a problem over the years where the currency went out of compliance and the dinar devalued to the dollar…what they’ve done is a really good job with the help of the U.S. Treasury to get this under control…yes they’ve brought the reserves to 72 Billion now and I think one of the 5 largest reserves in the Middle East but there are some other things kinda under the table here which are all relative.  When Iraq accepts Article VIII they have held stability for 17 months when the requirement was only 90 days.  They have done a really wonderful job creating a situation where they are creating a lot of confidence in their banking system for financial experts around the world as they look at should they bring money into Iraq and trust the banking system…

Randy Koonce – Dinar Guru    THE RATE IS THE ONLY THING THAT YOU ARE WAITING FOR.  Remember: This is a POLITICAL football, so it is possible there could always be another unforeseen ‘time out’.  It is not that our information was bad; but it might change. Again. DO NOT give your dinar to anyone else to exchange for you.  We are really, seriously, truly, honestly, absolutely, positively, probably VERY CLOSE.  RELAX the RV really is coming . …Keep Breathing…check the [CBI] every day to see if it has changed…  [post 3 of 3]

Randy Koonce – Dinar Guru    I want you to know there is nothing left for Iraq to do to prepare for a rate change. They have been ready since December of Last Year. As in 2018. January started the political football game. There were many political players, from our own Government to several others as well…And ALL of them have affected the political environment. Look for the Dinar to come out between $1 -$2. It should go up a little more later on. Please do not get suckered into waiting or watching for any 800 numbers. You will be able to exchange at any big bank or financial exchange center that normally deals in foreign currency exchanges.  [post 2 of 3]

Randy Koonce – Dinar Guru   …there is a very good window that has opened up once again, and will last through the end of the month. As I have mentioned before, many of the things that have happened on our way to the revaluation of the Iraqi Dinar has turned this anticipated event into a very big Political Game. I call it “Global Political Football”.  And there have been no rules to this long and unending game!  That being said, there is reason to believe that we are very – VERY – close to the final buzzer now. And, it is a very BIG WINDOW between now (as in ‘right now’;) through the end of month.  But…because it is a political football game, that does not mean that if this window closes at the end of the month without a rate change, we will never see it.  It just means that another political fight got in the way. Again.   [post 1 of 3]

Enorrste – Dinar Guru   …I think the answer is clear.  They want to make Iraq one of the most powerful currencies in the world.  They want to make it a world reserve currency.  They announced that some time ago.  8 years ago.  IMF has agreed it’s a good idea because of their location.  1.  They are in the Middle East  2.  The world needs another world reserve currency with the dollar being so over extended…they need this and we can’t overestimate the power and importance of the IMF becoming this trustee…they want this thing to happen.  They are proving it by making this currency flat to close to its own market rate for 16 months now and announcing they’re ready for international trade.  It’s really really tightened up. [Post 2 of 2]

Enorrste – Dinar Guru   I don’t think we can underestimate the role of the IMF in all of this.  They stated two years ago they were going to become the trustee of the Central Bank of Iraq.  When you’re the trustee this means you have the purse strings in your pocket and you can pull any sting you want at any time you want and it’s not by any coincidence whatsoever this currency shortly thereafter came into stabilization and they got within 2% between the fixed rate and the market rate...Allaq couldn’t do it so the IMF finally took over as the trustee of the CBI…They have it under control for 16 months…Why in the world would an International organization like the IMF want to stick their nose in Iraq’s business so deeply?    [Post 1 of 2]

Mountain Goat – Dinar Guru   Article:  “DEPUTIES IN PARLIAMENT DEMAND ACTION TO PUT AN END TO THE THE MASSIVE CORRUPTION CARRIED OUT THROUGH THE AUCTION OF HARD CURRENCY ORGANIZED BY THE CENTRAL BANK”  Quote:  “THE OFFICIAL STRESSED THAT THE GOVERNMENT IS CONSIDERING SEVERAL OPTIONS TO STRENGTHEN THE DINAR, such as the deletion of zeros or determine the price globally, as do many countries in the Arabian Gulf.” To determine the price globally means to reinstate the dinar BACK on the global exchanges… …This is the holdup right now in getting the reinstatement …THE CORRUPTION IN THE CBI! …So we know they that they know and the pressure is on to do something about losing all this money on these auctions. They have out-lived their usefulness which was to control inflation…

Kaperoni – Dinar Guru   The gurus like to constantly state an increase in the value of the dinar will be some random overnight act.  That will never happen.  If the Iraqi dinar increases in value it will be based on sound monetary policy and the world’s participation in rebuilding the country.  SAP, very significant IT company is now in Iraq and expects Iraq’s GDP to grow to 8.1% in 2020. That is huge and three times the current GDP. We can only hope they are correct.

Enorrste – Dinar Guru   …They are not just hoping for a floating dinar, they are counting on it.  The fact that the CBI has managed to raise its reserves is a clear indication that the float is imminent.  Only with a strong currency can they take the risk of moving to a float.  With 71 Billion in reserves they have about 175% coverage of their entire money supply in hard currency…Thus the dinar is one of the strongest currencies in the world despite its current low value.  As the float begins the they will see the value of the dinar begin to rise.  As it rises they will reduce the money supply with the goal of getting it down to 40 Billion dinar rather than 40 trillion dinar.  Thus at one dollar per dinar (this is after the float has occurred) the CBI will still have 175% coverage of their money, meaning the dinar could easily get back to the $3.50 per dinar range which is their ultimate goal.  [Post 2 of 2]

Enorrste – Dinar Guru    Haven’t had anything to say for a while but now we’re getting close so let’s get into it….[Article the Central Bank of Iraq on Thursday announced the foreign reserves rose to a total of 72 Billion dollars in the first half of 2019]…how did they raise their reserves when the government was in a deficit situation?  …they managed to expand investment throughout the country.  Thus reducing somewhat their dependence on oil.  This means dollar investment has in fact been coming in the country despite the fact that the dinar is not yet convertible on the international market…this is extremely good.  Why? …once the investors get a foothold in Iraq they will come in droves to make money…with the hopes…that they will be able to get their profits out the country in short order.  This means there are now people willing to put their money where their mouth is… [Post 1 of 2]

Kaperoni – Dinar Guru    …We’re all about the facts, truth and learning the process and fundamentals of how monetary policy works and how it interacts with transitional economies.  There is no arbitrary revaluation or reinstatement.  The terms the gurus like to use RV or RI is all nonsense.  That is not how monetary policy works…The CBI will follow strict rules.  They will follow processes as well as rules and processes from the International Monetary Fund (IMF).  They use this information to design monetary policies to combat the effects of a growing economy.  These are proven policies and techniques used by other central banks all around the world…there have been a lot of things that are eye popping.  There has been a lot of progress over the last few months…

Kaperoni – Dinar Guru   [via Baxter]    …the Article 4 consultation report… is to be released yet this Month...and that should tell us more about where Iraq is at this point.

Sandyf – Dinar Guru   …If we are to gain from this venture then it is not going to come from anything Iraq does.    How can people talk about Dinar and Dong in the same breath and then think the answer lies with 3 zeros. Hopefully by the time Iraq ever gets around to deleting the zeros, all thoughts of Iraq will be well and truly in the rear view mirror.

Don961 – Dinar Guru   Article:  “Paying with plastic? Iraqis weigh pros and cons” Quote:  “In Iraq’s cash-driven economy, the Communications Ministry and head of the Central of Bank are getting input on a mechanism that would allow banks and shops to further facilitate the use of debit and credit cards.”   …this is where the rubber (er…currency) hits the road…in the marketplace… cool article…dump the rippy old notes with all those zeroes… replace them with new polymer ones that don’t deteriorate as quickly…and give them a value so small change can be made without an issue… give ’em sum coins for the Fil jar to save for a rainy day …

Sandyf – Dinar Guru  …Govt does not Drop the zeros…CBI does…Central banks have a limited role in the management of a currency. Changes to the monetary unit or major changes to the currency require government approval.  Deletion of the 3 zeros in Iraq will affect the monetary unit and as such will require a Bill to pass through parliament, not going to happen any time soon.

Kaperoni – Dinar Guru   [77% of the world’s transaction revenue touches an SAP system! They are HUGE!  They…wouldn’t set up shop in Iraq for fun! …They have seen the potential & want to get in on the ground floor!]   Yes!  It’s a big deal they are now in Iraq.

Delta – Dinar Guru   [What if the central bank stopped selling the dollar?]  Article quote: “It may be necessary to resort to other mechanisms that are quite different from what is currently being used.”  WHAT’S NEXT?  …DETERMINE THE PRICE GLOBALLY…

DELTA – Dinar Guru    Article quote:  “The file of the “auction of hard currency” in Iraq to the forefront after the comments of deputies in parliament, demanding the Prime Minister and the Supreme Judicial Council and the public prosecution in the country, put an end to the massive corruption carried out through the auction of hard currency organized by the Central Bank of Iraq every day.”  MASSACRE OF THE DOLLAR IN IRAQ…OFFICIAL MOVEMENT AGAINST FRAUD AT THE CBI AUCTION.

Chattels – Dinar Guru   Article:  “Oil and gas laws: a crux of Erbil-Baghdad tension By Omar Moradi”   Quote:  “The lack of oil and gas federal legislation has been the root cause of problems between Erbil and Baghdad since the Iraqi constitution was approved in 2005. Now there is a government in Baghdad that has shown its desire to resolve these problems through dialogue, and the success of the new Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) cabinet depends on whether the oil and gas issue is resolved with Baghdad”  IMO, the federal legislation contemplated by the foregoing article is “THE HCL”.    If the HCL law is a condition precedent or attendant to our liquidity event, then we are not there yet.

Adam Montana – Dinar Guru   There will never be an absolute perfect set of circumstances under which Iraq “can” or “should” or “must” change the value of their currency.  I see a fair amount of comments from people stating something like “Oh, Iraq will never RV unless X happens, or until Y is implemented“, etc etc… that is simply not true.    There is NO absolute “must” for Iraq.  They can change the rate today. Or yesterday, or tomorrow. They can do it without any further progress, without any permission from anyone or anything, and all the speculation in the world won’t give us an exact date or a precise set of circumstances. The situation we find ourselves in today, at this very moment, is “good enough”.  Personally, I’m on standby for an incredible event.  A solid resolution on the oil and gas law (HCL) will mean “no turning back”, but just the same – it’s not a necessity.  Pretty darn exciting, if you ask me.  [post 2 of 2]

Adam Montana – Dinar Guru   Article:  “Oil and gas laws: a crux of Erbil-Baghdad tension”  Back in the forefront of ReValuation (RV) news…HCL. We’ve made it through Ramadan, budgeting, elections, and a whole slew of other issues. All of them, although lengthy at times, have sailed successfully through the turbulent waters and left us with a final component:  HCL. It’s actually on the horizon. It’s being talked about, and I’m predicting we’ll see more of this very shortly.     Adding fuel to the HCL fire: “Iraqi oil minister: OPEC agreement + will reduce stocks and achieve price stability”   WTI just crossed $60 again, and those of us watching the OIL tickers recently are well aware of how stable OIL is right now.  Those of us pairing that information with the current and ongoing situation in Iraq understand how important OIL is to Iraq’s ability to RV.   And in case anyone needed some reassurance…it’s going as perfect as we could hope for.    [post 1 of 2]

Mountain Goat – Dinar Guru   Article:  “WHY IS THE CURRENCY AUCTION IS OUTSIDE THE CONTROL OF THE CENTRAL BANK?”    …another article talking about the corruption with the currency auctions. This is all very good. We are going to see these auctions end and the “project to delete the zeros”. This is coming and coming sooner than later. The pressure by Sadr is enormous on parliament and the finance committee to work with the CBI.

Mountain Goat – Dinar Guru   …Dr. Ali Mohsen Al-Alaq, the governor of the Central Bank of Iraq today…does not have the experience needed to run such a system as the Central Bank of Iraq. The system is very political even though it is supposed to be independent. …So Alaq’s head is on the chopping block too and his days are numbered…The committee has selected the new CBI director/governor candidate already. He must first get ratified by parliament to get into the “permanent” position. Dr Shabibi and the World Bank is back in Iraq and working closely with this situation so we know they are VERY. VERY serious about moving ahead on the project to delete the zeros…

Mountain Goat – Dinar Guru    …my advice is relax. Let Sadr run his magic. He is on our side and wants the reinstatement just as bad if not more than us. He is working for reforms within Iraq. Remember his party/coalition won the election in 2018 and he ran on anti-corruption and reform agenda. He seated Mahdi and so the new PM must do what the coalition stands for – REFORMS.  [post 2 of 2]

Mountain Goat – Dinar Guru   …why would parliament form a separate finance committee…just to look into the matter of corruption in the CBI and currency auctions and as to why the Financial Management law is not being administered and implemented.  It has been passed for weeks now. Why would they do this if the RV was already scheduled to go?  Another reason why no RV was going to happen – The Department of Economic Studies… held a scientific symposium entitled “Change in the value of the Iraqi currency, benefits and costs”…held on 7/4/2019… Why would they do this if the RV was already scheduled to go?  [post 1 of 2]

Mountain Goat – Dinar Guru   Many of you still ask me about 800#s…You ask if all of this is really going to happen? I have said it before and I am saying it again. There are already 800#s published. The banks already have currency exchange centers within the banks and you can call their numbers anytime you want. There are no other special numbers planned. Get it? How many times must I talk about this? Why would you call anyhow with the rate is still too low?

Chattels – Dinar Guru  Article:  “Distribution of the instruments of Article 140 on Kurdish families” The allocation /distribution of funds to Kurds under article 140 is part of the first phase in the process. There remains at least the requirements of a census and referendum.  Article 140 involves three stages. The first, normalization, has a compensatory payment factor to it.  The next two are a census and a referendum to determine inclusion in the KRG.  There are reports of a census in 2020, but there is an argument over whether it is/ can be used as the article 140 census.  It is possible that the recent news was about funding for the census.