Dinar Observer Daily

Larrykn – Dinar Guru   …I think most countries are pegged to the US dollar, so…saying they are against the us dollar means they are competing against the US dollar…I think that is right.  …the currency is adjusted to the GDP of the country. what that country has to offer, I think Iraq has a lot to offer and not just oil. with the private sector coming in , they will do quite well in the world

MilitiaMan – Dinar Guru   Article:  “Demands to create an economy based on international foundations”   Going to a free market economy is exactly what we have been waiting for…The amount of jobs that will be created will be huge…we just were told the 2018 budget had a surplus of $3 billion and that is to be used to benefit the citizens per the HML [MCL ?]!  Let’s also not forget the Turk model they are following requires that that law be in place and it is and was enacted 01/13/2019 and is being adjusted to and. Right on time.  So there is no surprise they are talking about going to a free market economy, as they have the checklist checked!  Imo.

Breitling – Dinar Guru    Things change…My confidence in the Iraqi dinar has never changed.  So they have to change the tactic on what they need to do to maintain a certain economy. They are adapting to whatever the market is going to be…You shouldn’t have any fear…In my view…the worst case scenario it gets to $2.70, $2.80 and this is within the GCC and the market…So I’m just thinking about that market and what’s involved.  And just like any other currency, is it too high within a market and then it won’t work…and if they avoid that and just get into the world market that’s not going to work.  They have to be locally plugged in and take advantage of the international markets.  [post 2 of 2]

Breitling – Dinar Guru   …The Iraqi dinar is going to revalue.  The west set it up to revalue.  Their banking system is set up for a higher rate to be able to participate in the world markets.  Everybody knows this…It’s going to revalue.  Do we know when?  Absolutely not.  And the way that it revalues things change.  It simply changes.  Think about…from 2011 to what it is today –   It’s a completely different world.  The projections are completely different.  You had senators getting up in the senate and saying there was 50 years of oil left…obviously they’re full of it.  Obviously they were lying and trying to create an artificial market…and they had a president that backed it all up…that’s why we live in a completely different world.  [post 1 of 2]

Breitling – Dinar Guru   …The GCC countries…are going to want to be a part of that…there are two things that have to happen.  Iraq has to revalue its currency to participate so they have the money to invest…If you’re getting less and less dollars because the price of oil is going down then they’re going to have to add value to their own currency to make up for that.  Also, if they go too high within the GCC…no one is going to invest in Iraq.  Why go to Iraq and pay $3.22…when you can go right next do or to Saudi Arabia and [pay] $.23 for whatever you’re buying.  What it does it puts a cap on how far the currency can go…that’s why I’m speculating that it will never get to $3.22.  And I could be completely wrong.  [Post 2 of 2]

Breitling – Dinar Guru    I noticed a big huge trend.  A little bit of fear.  And there is no reason for it…[My] statement…“I don’t think the dinar is going to get to $3.25.”  That is just my opinion…Where does that come from?…We understand the opportunity for them to revalue is oil prices.  Well there are other things on the table and it has to do the the GCC which is basically a trading block in the middle east.  …what’s being proposed for peace in the middle east between Israel and the countries that surround Israel will have an indirect effect for Iraq and its currency…and it’s all good news. …The United States has agreed to put 2 Trillion into helping and sustaining the framework of this trading block…  [Post 1 of 2]

Adam Montana – Dinar Guru   […do you see the passing of the 2019 budget with the old rate in it as significant? Do you think we will now need to wait until 2020 to see an increase in the rate?…]   No to both questions.  I’ll expand on that briefly – the budget as passed allocated a specific dollar amount to specific items. This dollar amount gives Iraq a functioning government and will not need to be changed with the rate.  

Delta – Dinar Guru   Article:  “IRAQ IS CLOSING IN ON A MAJOR ECONOMIC BREAKTHROUGH”   I LOVE IT….ALL OVER THE NEWS IN IRAQ…   MORE GOOD NEWS…”free-trade zone will be established between Saudi Arabia and Iraq“

Adam Montana – Dinar Guru When people see something rising in value, they predictably want to catch that wave…  People see other people making profits and want to join in, and again the herd mentality can push a stock or a currency or anything else that is being traded to levels that it shouldn’t actually attain.  Eventually the markets will stabilize, as they always do. In Iraq’s case, this is exactly why I lean towards a pegged RV rate opposed to a complete free float on the market.   It will be easier for them to control a major change if they also control the fluctuation, and they stand to make enough profits on an RV that they will be better served by taking the profits on a fixed spread rather than trying to “catch it at the top”. A pegged rate, at least initially, will allow them to control and maintain a higher rate.  They are doing all this with their actions in their government, and the price of oil going up at a steady and fairly predictable rate gives them the ability to create a solid path to higher profitability.  End result? Everything we’re looking for!   [post 3 of 3]

Adam Montana – Dinar Guru  Iraq’s currency price is based on their ability to sell it to other countries, just like any other country with a tradable currency. Their ability to sell their currency is determined by what other countries will pay for it – this is the basic concept of supply and demand. …In order for Iraq to raise the “sell” price of their currency, they have to create a strong market for it. …If Iraq wasn’t making progress towards stability and strength, we would have no chance of an RV. That is…not the case. Iraq IS moving in the right direction. …That’s really all this comes down to…Iraq’s ability to raise the value of their currency is based on the perceived ability to provide a solid expectation of return on investment.  [post 2 of 3]

Adam Montana – Dinar Guru   If you’ve kept up with my recent posts, you know I’m excited about oil…We finished the week still above $60 on the WTI charts… and still going strong.   BIG PICTURE TIME.  There are a lot of moving parts here, but the biggest thing we’re waiting on right now is the HCL.  There are a bunch of articles and news related to HCL, and I’m even getting some very encouraging private messages from my contacts about the progress, but the bottom line right now is this:  HCL has not been concluded at this time.  Therefore we have no RV…yet. Yet, we have reason to keep hanging on, and if I may be so bold…we have a damn good reason for it. [post 1 of 3]

G-Lin – Dinar Guru  …I’m not sure exactly why they are bringing it back. Will they add amendments? Will any additional amendments address a rate? Everything is guess work at this stage and I’m sure that’s deliberate.   They also changed the date on the introduction into Parl. again From Apr.10th to Apr. 17th.   I’m hoping we will learn a little more between now and the 17th. So we wait. But I like the direction this is taking. They just held a seminar on the deletion of zeros and that is encouraging. They definitely are talking about it…   [post 2 of 2]

G-Lin – Dinar Guru   The Financial Management Law {FML} was voted on in Parl. already on Jan.13th 2019. It is very long and detailed and was posted on the Parl. site. It tells us at the bottom of this posting that it was enacted. The definition of enacted is: Make a bill or other proposal a law.   However, in the…art… “Parliamentary Finance intends to develop mechanisms to maintain the stability of the dinar exchange rate”  …they say  “the financial Parliament is keen to enact the law of financial administration“.   So…    [post 1 of 2]

Larrykn – Dinar Guru   Articles:  “Trade show kicks off to members of the Organization of Islamic cooperation with Baghdad.“;  “Iraq: we hope to double bilateral trade between Islamic countries for more than 481 billion”   I like that they are getting all these trade deals together, this is a great start to the private sector we are all looking for.

Sandyf – Dinar Guru   […in all the yrs! The rate has never been in the budget.]  You are quite right, there is no rate in a budget.  Iraq, like many other countries and businesses, must publish their accounts and budgets in both local currency and USD so there is a rate of exchange between the 2 versions. As far as Iraq is concerned the rate makes little difference to their income revenue and the USD budget, whatever the rate they would still only get the market price for a barrel of oil.

Larrykn – Dinar Guru  I don’t think Kap is that far off to be honest, I can see this coming out as a float, I’m just not sure it will start where it is at now.

Kaperoni – Dinar Guru   …The dinar can never revalue.  It can only gradually appreciate via a float once the CBI moves off the peg.…I have proven that they’re going to float the currency and I have been accurate for the past 8 years on the developments in Iraq. …there can never be an RV.

Larrykn – Dinar Guru    …they can change the rate at anytime even if the budget came out  …of course it came out at 1190, thats the rate today, all will change when they are ready to revalue. …they are working on getting things going, the trade deals they are working on is what they should be paying attention too, thats where the news is at, they are moving forward.

Mountain Goat – Dinar Guru  “Breaking news… The 2019 Budget is now opened”  Well, well, well…it looks like Iraq has finally opened their 2019 budget and paid out at the 1180 rate according to this article. So we all know what that means. We need to settle down, relax… This is going to be yet another end of year January 2020.  But my CBI contact was correct. They did pay out and open the budget this week. Just not at the rate we all wanted.

G-Lin – Dinar Guru   Article:  “Parliamentary Finance intends to develop mechanisms to maintain the stability of the dinar exchange rate”  Quote:  “the financial Parliament is keen to enact the law of financial administration as it gives a complete road map of the financial policy in the country in terms of management of money and cash in the state’, indicating that ‘the change will raise the exchange rate of the Iraqi dinar against foreign currencies while maintaining the stability of inflation in the country.”  I think the vote on draft of the financial administration law is huge.  This may open the door. If they vote on it or enact it, it could be what is necessary to change the value of the dinar.  They told us it will raise the value…

Mountain Goat – Dinar Guru   Article:  “IRAQI CURRENCY PASSED THROUGH SEVERAL STAGES”  Again more education going on…They are telling the citizens again not to buy or try to use the old Saddam Hussein notes prior to 2003. No smaller categories yet but the education of them is coming too. Hang in just a little longer…

Adam Montana – Dinar Guru   …the benchmark price I chose is WTI  [West Texas Intermediate], which is not necessarily “Iraqi Oil”…WTI is a commonly used price that can be used to reasonably gauge activity across various markets. Since actual daily Iraqi production and sales are not readily available, it makes sense to track another index or marker that has a more reliable report available.  As of this writing, oil (WTI) has surpassed $60 and is on a steady pace (slow and steady wins the race!) upwards. This isn’t the only thing that matters, of course. The ReValuation (RV) of the Iraqi Dinar isn’t hinged on any one item by any means! It is a culmination of many moving parts, and OIL is only one of them… but OIL is a big piece, and it’s performing exactly as we we want.   [post 2 of 2]

Adam Montana – Dinar Guru   Just a quick note this morning, because I’m bubbling with excitement over the recent progress and feel compelled to get something up here. No, we don’t have an HCL…and no, there has been no RV announcement.  But, boy howdy, talk about tracking! Iraq, the CBI, President Trump, and the Easter Bunny all have something in common: NONE of them are going to give us a specific “heads up” when Iraq is about to pull the trigger on a ReValuation of the Iraqi Dinar.  Our job here is to be informed, engaged, and prepared.    OIL is over my forecasted/predicted/anticipated mark of $60…   [post 1 of 2]

Mountain Goat – Dinar Guru   This is BIG news…more education going on. Many …might downplay this seminar but this is exactly what we have been waiting for. This was just held on Wednesday. This is NOT something from the past…how can you not get excited. Just because they are not saying everyday or any day RV this is still HUGE news. Any article on the project to delete the zeros is huge news since we know this is what is going to get us the significant increase in the value of the dinar, this increase we have been waiting so long for…

Larrykn – Dinar Guru   Article:  “Communications: Internet will improve soon”  Quote:  “The communications Ministry announced, that the reality of the Internet will see significant development during the coming period…”   these are the things I like seeing, they are moving in the right direction…less talk more action.

Larrykn – Dinar Guru   the IMF pushing them is good but we need to look at where they are at and can they rv at this time, that is the question…corruption, security, investment, are those things ready?   I don’t think so.

Mountain Goat – Dinar Guru   A scientific symposium (seminar) was held entitled “delete zeros from the Iraqi dinar” This seminar was divided into three sessions:  The first session: the concept of deleting zeros from the dinar. The second session: the expected results of the deletion of three zeroes from the Iraqi dinar. The third session: The experiences of some countries in the process of deleting zeros. Wow! Wow! Wow!  Does this not tell you something? They just held this three-prong seminar on the project to delete the zeros. WOW!

Mountain Goat – Dinar Guru   They only [way?] I know that they can liberate the exchange rate of the dinar is to put in on a float. We have read many times that the CBI will NOT put the program rate of 1180 on a float. In other words, the only way to liberate it is to reinstate it and let it float on the currency exchanges.  This is what the IMF was talking about. But we know that in order to do this means the CBI must also coordinate this effort with the “project to delete the zeros”.  These two pieces are interconnected and can’t be separated. When will this project occur? We know it can occur anytime before, during or just after the reinstatement. So no one really knows but…when we do see the smaller category notes coming out we know the reinstatement is very close at hand, if it didn’t already happen.   [post 3 of 3]

Mountain Goat – Dinar Guru   Meantime the CBI, an independent agency, stands waiting in the wings to more ahead with the project to delete the zeros. The GOI has been holding them back. Just in recent weeks we read that parliament has passed a special bill assuring the independence of the CBI. So can the CBI go ahead without the GOI?  Yes, but will they?  We know the IMF also has recently told the CBI to move ahead with “freeing the exchange rate of the dinar”. The only way I know that they can do this is to liberate the dinar from the currency auctions (put in place for sanctions).   [post 2 of 3]

Mountain Goat – Dinar Guru   The government will not be formed or even get to a vote in parliament until qualified candidates are presented and are not within the influence or a puppet of the Iranian government. There is going to be billions of dollars at stake for these reconstruction projects and those donators want to make sure they money is secure and goes towards these projects.   …We would rather stall and hold off this effort until the right people are in place that can secure the best opportunity for success. So this is the GOI standpoint…   [post 1 of 3]