Dinar Observer Daily

Larrykn – Dinar Guru   …I believe countries will always have IQD in reserve for people that travel to their country so they can exchange it like every other counties currency…now they will hold the larger notes for 10 yrs before only having the LD out in circulation.

Larrykn – Dinar Guru    IMF doesn’t force a country to do anything, they just suggest the way to do it so the country will come out with the rest of the world...of course if that country doesn’t do what the IMF suggest then the IMF can refuse to fund that country  [Im wondering if its getting to that point now that the IMF is suggesting to Iraq to add value to the dinar right now.]  I think Iraq wants to do that …but they need a suitable conditions and stability in the country first…then you will see a change in the rate…I would love to say they are ready to come out to the world but I just can’t, at least not yet.  I’m not trying to be negative but I just need to see more coming out of Iraq that shows they are moving in the right direction first.   I’m here like everyone else to make money, if I didn’t feel we were going to I would have been going long ago.

Mountain Goat – Dinar Guru  Article:  “IRAQI CENTRAL BANK POLICIES – TO ENCOURAGE IRAQI INVESTMENTS IN TURKEY”   Quote:  “The International Monetary Fund (IMF) is therefore demanding Iraq to free the exchange rate!”  this is a WOW! article. So now we know the IMF wants Iraq to reinstate the dinar and go on a float. This is the only way they can “free the exchange rate”.   …So the IMF has approved the CBI to go ahead yet more evidence….

Adam Montana – Dinar Guru   Very related to HCL is this:  Article: “Parliamentary Energy intends to review the oil agreement between Baghdad and Erbil”  In a nutshell, the Kurdish oil production is higher than the anticipated amount… What does this mean to us? IMO, this has great potential. The Kurds have a solid argument, and the Baghdad side now has a LOT of motivation to get busy negotiating a profit sharing agreement.  That’s exactly what the HCL is.  The Kurds will also be motivated to get this moving, as they probably stand to catch a larger portion of the budget in addition to a better HCL deal. A couple years ago when they were talking about a secession, with the Kurds forming their own country – remember that? I had heard at the time from my experts that there was no real chance of that happening, but they were setting the stage for a stronger position in the big picture. That is EXACTLY what this ties into, and the HCL is what puts a pretty little bow on this whole deal. Pretty exciting stuff!   [post 2 of 2]

 Adam Montana – Dinar Guru   We’re currently in the midst of some significant happenings right now. It’s almost coming too fast to keep on top of things, so let’s just recap the current situation. …EVERYTHING oil related is cruising along at a good clip and in the right direction. …we have touched $60 a couple times this week…the real important part is the manner it is happening. Nice and steady, just how we want it… for now…   …I’m expecting to see some solid HCL news, and a potential focus on the HCL, with the RV bubbling just below the surface of the news.  …at this time…they will not give us a major heads up on this plan.  Our only clues are going to be: Stability in the GOI, which we have.;  Solid news on HCL, or an actual passed HCL bill, which is reasonable to expect under the current situation.  [post 1 of 2]

Delta – Dinar Guru  JUST IN FROM IRAQI TV: IMF IS DEMANDING IRAQ TO FREE THE EXCHANGE RATE!!!

BGG ~ Yeah, yeah… he got this from reading my post on THE BLOG the other day. Pretty easy to find.

While interesting, it was the last line from an opinion piece posted on a private FaceBook page by an economics professor out of Baghdad… not exactly official.

Mountain Goat – Dinar Guru   …hold on to your seats and don’t fall off since I am going to give you some great news today. Finally, some more breaking news in the right direction for Iraq… 1.  Quote… “The International Monetary Fund (IMF) is therefore demanding Iraq to free the exchange rate!”   This issue is now becoming imperative since Iraq is having trouble trading with its neighbors… without a real rate. …The IMF is now aggressively pushing the CBI to reinstate the IQD… 2. Quote… “Abadi revealed his decision in May 2018 to arrest former Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki” …This DOES NOT say Maliki is already arrested. It is only telling us an intent to arrest him. Abadi has no official capacity to arrest Maliki.  Are these both issues exactly what we have all been praying for…?

Kaperoni – Dinar Guru  There will never be a RV or RI…it’s not how monetary policy works.  In order see the dinar’s value rise we need to see the CBI open the banking system, and see investment laws passed to bring investors to Iraq.  Only then can pressure come (in the form of investment) that will force the CBI to float the currency. All of this could take several more months because Iraq does nothing fast.

Mountain Goat – Dinar Guru   Article:  “INCREASE SALARIES OF KURDISTAN REGION BY “ONE-AND-A-HALF”    They are getting ready to open the budget and pay the salaries. Once they open this budget will be our deciding factor… How can they afford to increase them so high without oil revenue increases? Do they know something we don’t?

Kaperoni – Dinar Guru  …parliament has only passed 1 law in the last 6 months.  We need these critical laws passed so investment will begin to come in to Iraq.

Mountain Goat – Dinar Guru   Article:  “CBI: PROJECT DELETION OF ZEROS FROM THE CURRENCY STILL EXISTS”  Article is telling us the CBI already collected the needed amount of IQD three zero notes out of circulation and is ready to proceed but had to wait due to delay due to security events and the control of the state regulation on five provinces by ISIS.  Why would they tell us this if they were not now ready to move ahead again? Oh – but they did tell us they are moving ahead again. We just need to wait a little longer as they complete the final touches on this process. The target is still to go by the end of March. They need to pay the Kurdish salaries and other payments and benefits to other citizens in Iraq. They need to open the 2019 budget.

Mountain Goat – Dinar Guru   UPDATE ON THE ONGOING ELECTION SAGA  Article quotes:  “Faleh al-Fayyad has officially moved away from the post of interior minister…the matter will be RESOLVED IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS”   No new date given when parliament intends to vote on these positions.

Mountain Goat – Dinar Guru    IS THE CBI MOVING TOWARDS A TARGET BY THE END OF MARCH FOR THE REINSTATEMENT OF THE IRAQI DINAR?  …three articles in two weeks on the currency…Why now. We have been waiting for months with no news and now we get 3 articles. Is the CBI getting ready to change over to the smaller category notes? This is the early part of their re-education program. Remember these older 3 zero notes are to coincide with the news notes for up to 10 years.  We can expect articles to explain and show us the smaller category notes. This is what we need to really see and we will know we are right on top it.

BGG   Article:  “CBI: Project deletion of zeros from the currency still exists”   Quote:  “…the project to delete the zeros was supposed to start in 2014, but security events and the control of the state regulation on five provinces led to delay, pointing out that the project is to delete three zeros from the current currency with the introduction of large currencies and currencies Metal.”    This was printed Jan. 20th of 2019… RECENT!!

Mountain Goat – Dinar Guru   …But the reinstatement is not just changing the CBI rate.   It is a reinstatement process with many more technical issues that arise if you go from a CBI rate to a Market rate and do it in the middle of a fiscal accounting period for the year.   I can not go into all the details and many of you would not understand the adjustments to the ledgers that would have to be made from moving from a 1180 rate to a $4.40 rate, as it is a very substantial change in values.  How do you adjust and reconcile a ledger with a mix of program rate and true market rate of the dinar?  So we can see the dilemma that the GOI is in when they did not make their target for a January 2019 reinstatement. The effects ripple enormously once they open the budget and then try to reinstate later in the middle of a fiscal year.   [post 2 of 2]

Mountain Goat – Dinar Guru   Many of these intel gurus are telling you that the CBI and GOI want to reinstate the currency by the end of March. I am hearing the same and we know that the govt has not yet opened its 2019 budget…We have been told that the GOI waits to open the budget because once they do, if the reinstatement (which will include significant rate increase for the dinar) did not yet happen they may have to wait until January 2020 window again. They do not want to do this.  [post 1 of 2]

MilitiaMan – Dinar Guru   Article:  “A fine of 50 million and imprisonment for a person who hires or starts to prepare for false money”  Now this is so very interesting as they are telling the citizens don’t get caught counterfeiting coins… They don’t have any yet, but, boy are they going to! Once they reinstate that fine is massive. imo…The main point is they are talking coins!!

Kaperoni – Dinar Guru   …they can never stop the auctions until two things are accomplished. 1. They float the currency, 2. they move to Article VIII.

Kaperoni – Dinar Guru    So as of now, the CBI has met the 2% rule for a year and there is no MCP…They are in compliance.  Part of compliance to get out of Article XIV to Article VIII is the ability to control that.   So the IMF requires that before they could move to Article VIII.   …the CBI cannot stop the auctions until it has something to replace it with. The auctions are the CBI’s source of revenue. The replacement is the float which allows the CBI to then buy/sell its currency on the world market like any other country that floats…

Adam Montana – Dinar Guru  We all know that it won’t just be us little investors and Iraq that benefits from a change in the Iraqi Dinar.Every country that has physical dinar in their reserves, or any kind of trade alliance with Iraq, will also benefit.  That’s one piece of the puzzle, and an important one, but what’s even more important is the overall picture… which just keeps getting better and better.  Iraq’s reserves reporting positive news:  “CBI News 03/20/2019  Annual Report of the performance of foreign reserves of the Central Bank of Iraq”   Quote:  “Iraq’s foreign reserves rise 32.6% last year Central Bank of Iraq”  Iraq could not ask for a better scenario under which to increase the value of their currency.  [post 2 of 2]

Adam Montana – Dinar Guru   I’ve been saying for a couple months now that oil to ~$60 was what I want to see. This is not because $60 is a “magic number”, so even though we *almost* hit $60 this week ($59.85 I think!!!), I’m going to state that the oil price is “close enough” and we are officially in the GREEN ZONE on that aspect.  A declining price in oil would have made the RV-Button-Pushers pull back. That didn’t happen.  A sudden spike to $60 would have urged no action, because a sudden pullback would have been expected. That didn’t happen either!  What we have been seeing in the price of oil is a steady climb, very controlled and consistent, towards the $60 mark.   …Keep in mind that the OPEC oil production limitation agreement that virtually every OPEC country/member has signed onto, with the exception of Iraq, is largely responsible for this controlled growth…  [post 1 of 2]

Mountain Goat – Dinar Guru  Article:  “INTEGRITY COMMISSION ON TUESDAY, IT WAS ABLE TO CONTROL CASES OF MANIPULATION IN THE SALE OF CURRENCY”   Quote:  “THE CHANGE WILL BE MADE BY RAISING THE EXCHANGE RATE OF THE IRAQI DINAR AGAINST FOREIGN CURRENCIES”.   What did they just tell us…?  They are going ahead with the currency reform.  Also I want to point out we keep getting article after article on how Iraq needs investors to come into Iraq, yet they can’t without a FREE FLOW of capital and you can’t have a FREE FLOW OF CAPITAL using the currency auctions. This would be disastrous for Iraq.   So they need to go international and they need to raise the value in the process or it will not work. It is all interconnected and it is time to get it done- not later but NOW!

Mountain Goat – Dinar Guru   We know that when these last ministers are voted in this will complete the government. We have been told that the government must be completed and stable prior to any reinstatement. This has been a major requirement over the years. I am not saying this is the ONLY requirement.  We also know that there is still major corruption with the currency. How much of it is fixed and to what extent we do not yet know. But this too was told to us all that it would hold up the project to delete the zeros. Could it be fixed enough now?

Kaperoni – Dinar Guru  …two articles…confirm the plan for the currency as we have said for years.  It will not RV or RI, but will gradually rise over time via float.  These articles are simply stating that the government is going to begin to take action (like passing laws) which will have an effect on the CBI (and exchange rate).  IMO, Still weeks maybe months.  Exciting news for sure but this still takes time.  First we need the laws, then the investors/investment, then pressure on the capital account at the CBI, then the float to offset that pressure. Remember…the CBI is in control of monetary policy.  And the government is in control of activating investment/investors.  The tool the CBI uses to combat inflation is to float the dinar.  This all takes time.

Larrykn – Dinar Guru    I don’t care how it comes out to be honest just come out…it would raise to how the investments come in.  I don’t think it would take forever to get to where we can make money.  I find it interesting how Iraq is buying gold for their reserve. that would also help with their currency and stability.  …it has been a long road but they also have made a lot of progress too…not saying they don’t have a ways to go but someday there will be a finish line. Hopefully not that far away, time will tell.

MilitiaMan – Dinar Guru   …we are in a very good place within the place we are in now with MRs. Add in Mahdi is in Cairo with Jordan tomorrow… Egypt and Jordan are huge trading partners. Is Mahdi getting accolades, from possibly what he did today the 21st of March at the beginning of Norouz holiday to end at the end of the holiday, just as the neighbor  [Kuwait?] did in 1991?  Well time will tell, but, be sure imo things are in alignment as far as I can tell…

Kaperoni – Dinar Guru   [Does pegging the American dollar to the dinar make the dinar go up in value faster ?]  When its pegged it can’t go anywhere.  The primary reason they do this is for stability which is a condition under IMF Article XIV.

Breitling – Dinar Guru  Iraq needs the price per barrel to be at $57 to pay for their economy.  But to pull it out of the ground is much cheaper…they’re probably pulling it out of the group for $9 or $10 per barrel and then putting it on the market and the market price is $57.

David M. Witty – Dinar Guru   Iraqi MP from Fatah Coalition says Parliament’s schedule for next week does not contain a vote on vacant cabinet positions. However, he thinks there will be a vote in the following week. Still disagreements among political blocs about cabinet positions.

Breitling – Dinar Guru  Question:  What do the Iraqi’s need to finish for it to revalue?  As far as legislation and policy absolutely nothing… I still don’t understand why they haven’t revalued or simply haven’t started adding value to it.  I don’t understand that…the real price of the Iraqi dinar comes from the CBI.  That’s all you need to know.