Dinar Observer Daily

MilitiaMan – Dinar Guru   Article:  “Parliamentary move to raise the price of the dinar and maintain the stability of inflation” Quote:  “the change will raise the exchange rate of the Iraqi dinar against foreign currencies”  The wording “the change will” means it is going to happen! They are moving on it now, imo, effectively. … EXCITING TIMES FOLKS…

Mountain Goat – Dinar Guru    Also I want to remind you that…parliament passed the law to allow more independency in the CBI, not that legally they don’t already have it. But when the GOI keeps holding them back, they needed this law to get over all this corruption.  After reading this article I really think that parliament is going to go over the PM and get it done with the CBI. So I would consider this one of those WOW! articles.   [post 2 of 2]

Mountain Goat – Dinar Guru   I need everyone to take a deep breath and hold on to your seats. We…have one article in particular that is simply amazing and warrants getting the champagne back in the frig. It is one of these “WOW!” articles. We have not had this kind of news in a very long time…   Article:  “PARLIAMENTARY FINANCE COMMITTEE IS DEVELOPING MECHANISMS TO CHANGE THE COUNTRY’S FISCAL AND MONETARY POLICIES IN COORDINATION WITH THE CENTRAL BANK OF IRAQ”   So here is it in black and white, the news of the RV we have been waiting for in anticipation...Just like I told you… It will all surface when they are ready to do it.  Now they are ready.  [post 1 of 2]

Frank26 – Dinar Guru SOMETHING HAPPENED TODAY AND OUR NEWSHOUNDS ARE BRINGING IT TO YOU...IT IS VERY SIGNIFICANT.  Article:  “Parliamentary move to raise the price of the dinar and maintain the stability of inflation” Quotes:  “The Parliamentary Finance Committee is moving in the current legislative session to develop mechanisms to change the monetary and monetary policies in the country, in coordination with the Central Bank of Iraq, aimed at raising the dinar exchange rate and maintaining the stability of inflation.“;    “the change will raise the exchange rate of the Iraqi dinar against foreign currencies while maintaining the stability of inflation In the country“.

Mountain Goat – Dinar Guru   Article:  “THE PAPER AND METAL CURRENCY AFTER 2003, WHICH DID NOT SUCCEED IN TRADING AND WAS CANCELED”  I would consider this an early phase of educating the citizens about the currency. Remember that in 2015 coming close to January 2016, the CBI told us they wanted launch the 100 coins but later decided not to. ...I believe they are getting ready to launch these 25, 50 and 100 very soon and are telling the citizens to watch out for the “cancelled” 50 dinar notes from 2003 no longer valid and that here are the pictures of the coins that are valid and coming soon. This is PERFECT too since we know that are going to slowly launch these smaller categories as the market dictates…

Mountain Goat – Dinar Guru   …when they think that the CBI has the adequate reserves (and other things) this will give the CBI sound reasoning to go for the reinstatement. In one of the articles today once again they told us they would the “3.3” ($3.30) rate back to the dinar. …they will probably go beyond that. I quote from the article… “Iraqi state budget was 11 billion dollars and the exchange rate of the dollar 3.3 and today the state budget 450 billion and the exchange rate of the dollar is 1189 dinars.” I think we could possibly be in a window…  [post 2 of 2]

Mountain Goat – Dinar Guru   “WHENEVER A RESERVE OF HARD CURRENCY IS INCREASED IN THE STATE TREASURY, THE VALUE OF THE LOCAL CURRENCY RISES.”   WOW! Could this also be yet another reason why the CBI is waiting to RI? They need for the reserves to increase?  Remember that when Dr Shabibi was about the RI way back in Jan 2013, the CBI reserves where at a all time high of 90+ billion. We know the war with ISIS has brought the CBI reserves down to a dangerous level of about 45 billion. Last we hear the reserves recovered and were about 60+ billion and climbing...   [post 1 of 2]

Don961 – Dinar Guru   Article:  “Al-Araji: Sadr may launch a project against the government of Abdul Mahdi and Abadi will return”   Quote:  “The political ground is ready for Sadr’s reform project,” he said, adding that “there is political and popular discontent towards the government of Abdul Mahdi.” He added that “Abdul-Mahdi does not have the tools to implement his government program” “He said.

David M. Witty – Dinar Guru  In Iraq, source close to Muqtada Sadr says Sadr considers PM Abdel-Mahdi a failure & that his government will likely fall soon. Sadr is signalling this to political blocs. PM has done nothing. 

Mountain Goat – Dinar Guru   The news pouring out of Iraq now is all about Iranian influence and how it is negatively effecting Iraq and the currency reform process. When we see such a number of articles concentrating all on the same topic, we can see clearly that this is what they are working on now and need to resolve. …This area I totally see how it is impacting on holding back the currency reform, the project to delete the zeros and the reinstatement and so it got my attention. We may be coming to an end to this fiasco of holding back the reinstatement after all if this newest effort will work. So, we sit tight and wait for anticipation.

Mountain Goat – Dinar Guru   Article:  “COOPERATION OF AMERICAN COMPANIES TO ENTER IRAQ, ESPECIALLY IN FOUR PROVINCES” Quote: “This year will see a great opening and a clear renaissance in the country.”  This is all fine but how will the companies transfer funds in and out of Iraq? Will they want to convert dinars to US dollars in the currency auctions? I don’t think so…They will want to do through the banking process and they use FOREX. Oh – but the rate is not yet on FOREX.

Larrykn – Dinar Guru    the pressure on the CBI is a good thing…they talk about opening the ATM machines to pay salaries and such.  If we look at the destruction that happen over there I believe they need more banks with ATM so the customers can get to their money, this will take time and this might be the reason they are taking their time. but then again the seating of the rest of the cabinet might be part of that too.  I’m just not sure that is a requirement for Iraq to move forward.  We will see, soon.  I hear parliament will meet again on the 23rd, we can only hope they can get them seated.

Kaperoni – Dinar Guru  Folks need to understand, Iraq is not going to raise the value of their currency arbitrarily.  If it goes up in value it will be because the world helped Iraq rebuild and prosper.  New central bank article today calling on the politicians to stimulate the real sectors of the country putting pressure on the CBI.  This is what I have been saying all along!

Larrykn – Dinar Guru   they have raised their currency one time since they were put of the artificial rate that went from 3000 to 1200…they have floated with the dollar since then.  once they go into Art 8 and come out to the world…that all will change…

Chattels – Dinar Guru  [So,will the GOI be completed today?]  Parliament adjourned until the 23rd the last that I saw/read.

Kaperoni – Dinar Guru   …substantial investment will cause pressure on the CBI. This is why the CBI needs a tool to counter such. That tool is the a liberal exchange rate regime (float) to allow the gradual appreciation of the currency to offset such pressure.   …look at the bigger picture…Iraq needs investors/investment …billions of dollars to rebuild, create a market economy.  That will create economic pressure and the solution to that is to raise the value.   [post 2 of 2]

Kaperoni – Dinar Guru  Iraq needs to complete the government and parliament needs to pass the laws before it can open up to investors/investment.  Nobody coming otherwise.   [Can all of that be done in a short time?]   Sure if they decide to do it.  But they have shown they are lazy and don’t want to accomplish much.  Time will tell…and pressure is on them to open the economy.  [post 1 of 2]

Adam Montana – Dinar Guru   Oil saw a nice upward spike yesterday. We’re not quite to $60, but the trend is still positive. I expect it to pull back a tiny smidge, then continue the steady pace in this direction…I’m not saying “the day OIL hits $60, we will have an RV”!  $60 was the direction I wanted to see, and we’re basically there. As long as the current trend continues, we are in the (green) zone.  Steady and controlled oil prices, + steady and stable GOI, + some HCL goodies…that’s what we’re looking for, and it keeps coming!   [post 1 of 3….stay tuned]

Mountain Goat – Dinar Guru   So far, no voting in parliament on the last 4 ministers. Saturdays promised voting was not completed and postponed yet again. However no new date was confirmed or announce right away. Article quote:  “The candidate of the Minister of the Interior has not been agreed upon so far, but Fayadh officially withdrew his candidacy.”   So another article says that the PM is now able to put his own selection of candidates forward and vote on them. We are told they plan to try again in Thursday 3/21. 

Kaperoni – Dinar Guru    …an article that said they would not float the dinar…could be interpreted in two ways. 1. being they won’t float (which makes no sense because they then would not have the tool they need to counter inflation as investment/investors come to Iraq, or    2. they are not going to float at this time (which may be what they really meant at the time of the article).  And may be true…but that was months ago before the dinar was stable and in compliance…

Mountain Goat – Dinar Guru    I can say that I have heard many rumors about the readiness for the launching of the new smaller category notes, however you would think that, if these rumors where true, we would see multiple articles on this topic in the general Iraqi news media prior to the event. We have NOT yet seen this. But also remember this does not mean this even may not be on the radar for the very near future either as we also know these smaller category notes may come in close proximity to the announcement of a reinstatement.

EHankins – Dinar Guru  Education for and to the citizens on the Nasdaq billboard… this must not fail. This is a perfect opportunity for them to learn…they are IMO. WE KNOW THIS… have known this for a long long time.  CBI bring it… we are way past the RI… you can pull the trigger any time now.

Larrykn – Dinar Guru    […do you guys know when they will finish the remaining 4 cabinets?]    …parliament meets tomorrow , we shall see what happens then.

Larrykn – Dinar Guru   Article quote: “Breaking   The IMIS candidate for the interior ministry in Adil Abdel al-Mahdi’s cabinet, Falih al-Fayyadh has officially withdrawn his candidacy bid…”  this might open the door to complete the cabinet.

Kaperoni – Dinar Guru   There are two ways to interpret what the CBI is talking about when they mention “deletion of zeros. It may be honest and part of the plan (when they interpretation of what they really mean applies) or it may simply be the CBI trying to diffuse speculation and speculators from buying the dinar. There is no way to know for sure until they open the economy and we find out.  I have read articles that imply deleting 3 zeros is a LOP and others that imply that they will raise the value gradually down to the day the dinar is worth the same as the dollar…which implies a float and exchange rate improvement.  Personally, I believe from my research the dinar will improve in value via float and that seems to coincide with Dr. Bakri in Iraq who has written me several times to discuss monetary policy…   [post 3 of 3]

Kaperoni – Dinar Guru   As for how fast the dinar could rise…just look back at 2004-2005 when the CBI  under Dr. Shabibi unpegged for about 6 months and reduced inflation from about 33% to 5% or less raising the dinar exchange rate from near 3000 / $1 to 1170 /$1. This demonstrates the pace the dinar once again could have during the investment/market economy phase. But again, this process is up to how fast investors/investment comes to Iraq. It is not a random act. Again, many articles on this process to read from the IMF and other organization.   …Remember this is not some idea I came up with. The professionals at the IMF that work directly with Iraq have documented that is their intention for the CBI and the dinar. [post 2 of 3]

Kaperoni – Dinar Guru   Many think the dinar could never free float and must be some sort of manage float. They may be right!   I …do not really care what type of float it is other than that is how monetary policy works, floats are a tool that the CBI uses to counter pressure.Random acts like RV’s RI’s etc are not tools the CBI uses so we can rule such an event out. As well there are other reasons like money supply, economic shock that prevent such an event from ever happening.  If they do float (which they will) the float will begin at whatever the current rate is at..such as 1190. The reason is simple…any other value would be a RV of sorts and not be within the tools the CBI uses. Not to mention, it would circumvent the CBI’s ability to profit from the buy/sell of currency commissions. Which after all, is what the CBI is in the business of…making money. Central banks every single day control the sale of their currency to make money. [post 1 of 3]

Larrykn – Dinar Guru   I think that fact that they are opening the ATM, is good, I think they can reduce the note count when they pay salaries thru the ATM and use the visa cards. 

Mountain Goat – Dinar Guru   So the parliamentary session was held on Saturday. The big question is – Did they vote on the remaining 4 ministers?  NO voting was conducted as promised would happen. Go figure…This is very important because we know that there has always been a long-standing mandate to have a fully completed government prior to any reinstatement of the currency for Iraq.  We know that much has been accomplished in the form of banking and currency reforms. It is believed that now any holdup in the reinstatement is purely political and so we wait.

Larrykn – Dinar Guru      Article:  “The Cabinet issued a directive for international institutions and funding on borrowing”  This sounds like they are trying to get a handle of corruption, no loans without their approval…if they don’t…we don’t see what we want.   …corruption, stability and banking are three things they need to get done…they are working on all three but it does take time, plus laws they need to pass…not until lately have they real done any of these things. For years its been all talk no action.