Dinar Observer Daily

Breitling – Dinar Guru   As far as the dinar goes, it looks so phenomenal, it truly does.  We are in a very very good spot.  And now we have an entire country pushing it…Let me throw this out there just as a scenario…Let’s say Iran is not attached to the Iraqi dinar at all. Then it’s strictly oil prices.  But Iran is attached to Iraq.  So what if they force a revaluation or decide to have a revaluation before the price per barrel goes down?  That could happen…that’s why we live in a different world.  That could happen with the relationship they have with Iran.  It would stabilize Iraq and Iran in that region if they added value to it.  It would counter the sanctions…the language I’m hearing out of Iraq is that’s what’s coming down the road.  That’s what they’re negotiating.  Now Iraq hasn’t bought into it yet but that’s what’s going on out there. 

Iraqi Dinar News Update  After a month of no updates…the CBI reported the MARKET rate of the dinar today at 1204. The update included the MARKET rate for every business day between October 8th and November 7th. The Iraqi Dinar traded between 1203 to 1208 over this time-span.  These rates are within the 2% IMF requirement between the OFFICIAL rate and the MARKET rate (OR/MR) which should be maintained for Article 8 compliance.  Stay tuned as more information comes in from the Central Bank of Iraq!!

Chattels – Dinar Guru    #Iraq parliament met Tue but did not consider completion of cabinet. Next meeting scheduled for Thur…Tune in tomorrow…

Mnt Goat – Dinar Guru   Article:  “PROJECT TO BE DISCUSSED BY THE PARLIAMENT, REDUCING THE NUMBER OF VICE PRESIDENTS FROM THREE TO ONE”     This article is one that I consider a WOW article. …First we find out why Maliki has not yet been prosecuted for the fall of Mosul. Then we can see the political maneuvering by Maliki to save his own skin. Simply put – he wants the immunity and he needs the VP position. Secondly we see how they have not yet announced the three new VPs and want to change the constitution to have only one (1).  But this will be very difficult to do since what tribe will the VP belong to? Right now its a balance between the three tribes as each Sunni, Sheite and Kurd is represented. We are told that they would be announced at the same time as the rest of the ministers. The count for the ministers is now up to 6 from 4 last week that are not yet ratified. There are a total of 8 still to be announced and voted on.

Adam Montana – Dinar Guru    …”Mahdi is cleaning house”. YEP! The wheels are turning.  The transition is rolling along, and that’s the best news we can ask for. Keep it moving, Mahdi!   I see all of this as a good sign. There are no major upheavals, nothing shocking, and nothing scary has happened in the last week. Things are proceeding smoothly…we DO have is solid progress…Stay patient, friends.

Breitling – Dinar Guru   What did Iraq say they were going to do?  They even told everybody how they were going to do it and the time period they are going to take to get the currency you and I have off the market and introduce the new currency that represent the higher rate that can interact with the rest of the world.  There is a transition period in the middle of that.  Nothing more.  It’s not complicated.  Everybody makes things more complicated than they really are.  Everything is simple…always start with the intent of what the CBI wants to do.  They want to add value to their currency…That’s it.

MilitiaMan – Dinar Guru  

QD/USD (IQDUSD=X)
Previous Close   0.001
Open   0.001
Bid   0.001
Day’s Range   0.001 – 0.001
52 Week Range   0.0008 – 0.0009
Ask   0.001

Now that is interesting movement in value and if it holds then, a international calculation can get applied to it in short order…IMO.

Breitling – Dinar Guru   Where do I get my information from?  It comes from an authority…I’m getting my math, my information from the authority…from the people who say they’re going to revalue.  The people who are in control of the country’s currency in Iraq.  That’s it.  If it doesn’t happen, it’s because of something they did.  If it happens…it’s something they did.  But I’m speculating on it because of something they said.  And I believe they can do it.  And I believe they’re going to do it.  That’s it.  My opinion is based on that information and that information only…my option is yeah, it’s worth speculating on.  I believe that.

Mnt Goat – Dinar Guru   Article:  “APPEARANCE OF MOHAMMED SALEH: IRAQ AND THE WORLD TRADE ORGANIZATION”   …this is a very long article and so let me try to sum it up for you: Mohammed Saleh, the deputy financial advisor to the GOI, is assessing the opportunity cost of joining the WTO.  Does Iraq really care about joining? He concludes that YES Iraq does want to join.   …The long path to WTO ascension is the ability to go along with the BIG guys and play their game since the markets are dominated by so few who control the entire international market;   the long-term survival of Iraq depends on international trade, secure international investment and a commercial environment;  one of the major obstacles is the INABILITY of a “strong payment program”. How they transfer funds (SWIFT system) and use of currency (currency reform).

Daytrader – Dinar Guru  IMO, the oversight management of the economic reform process is the responsibility of the government.  This suggests the success of the GOI economic reform process is dependent on the CBI reinstating the IQD to an international status at a legitimate rate, but the success of the monetary reform process is dependent on the success (read currency demand) of the economic reform.  Would hope the CBI is now at this stage in the monetary reform process, as they hold the trigger mechanism in their hands for Iraq’s economic reform.  IMO.   [post 2 of 2]

Daytrader – Dinar Guru    JMO, there are two reforms taking place in Iraq that are co-dependent; monetary reform and economic reform.  The economic reform provides jobs on several levels…People with jobs earn money, then spend money in many areas; food, shelter, clothing and the list goes on. Those purchases will require businesses to replenish their stock, which drives the need for more product manufacturing, more raw material needs and more agriculture development.  This circular process drives the flow of money in any economy.  …This process is critical for the CBI’s success as demand for a currency determines the effectiveness of a monetary reform program.  However IMO, the CBI must reach a point in the monetary reform process where the value of its currency will attract direct foreign investment (DFI) as the trigger for economic reform.  [post 1 of 2….stay tuned]

MilitiaMan – Dinar Guru   So since the currency has been a main topic for about 30 days or more now, it would suggest that since the timing of REER (Real Effective Exchange Rate) is an issue, the final roll out on the new small currency would be expected to be along quite shortly.. imo.  It was mentioned that REER was established on Monday last for a basket, it has almost been a week for REER..imo The clock is not just ticking…  lol.

Chattels – Dinar Guru   Article quote:  “The exchange rate of the dollar, Saturday, maintained its stability against the dinar on the Iraqi stock exchange.  According to figures received by “Economy News”, the price of selling the dollar in the stock market today is 120 thousand dinars and the purchase price 121 thousand dinars to 100 dollars. On the Basra Stock Exchange, the sale price today reached 120 thousand dinars, and the purchase price 121 thousand dinars to 100 dollars.  While the sale price of the dollar on the Arbil Stock Exchange today 120 thousand dinars, and the purchase price 121 thousand dinars to 100 dollars.”

Mnt Goat – Dinar Guru   The new Iranian sanctions that are due to kick-in in a few days and this may be our saving grace. These sanctions may force the issue of preventing USD currency through the currency auction sales from going to Iran. This may override any other (fake) “security” concerns and so may finally allow the cancellation of the auctions and the use of the dinar in trade. If this happens, they must pull the trigger and go international (at least this is my take) as they will have no choice.

Mnt Goat – Dinar Guru   …I want to say it is impossible to revalue the dinar until Iraq has at least first reinstated the dinar. …So we are looking for a “reinstatement” first. Any significant change in value beyond the value prior to the international embargo of the currency can then be called a revaluation but only in the sense of increased value. Technically in IMF terms it is NOT really a “revaluation”. So why does everyone keep saying they are looking for the RV? When I use this term RV I am using it generically saying that the rate will significantly increase. I do not mean a formal revaluation.

Mnt Goat – Dinar Guru  …news of some debt forgiveness of the 2004 Paris Agreement and meeting the conditions of the IMF Stand By Agreement terms is completed in order to do so. This is a huge sum of money ($128 billion) and once again sets Iraq up in a position allowing them more financial flexibility. As we all know paying off past debt, especially war debt, is showing financial responsibility and this sets up Iraq in a better position for the reinstatement of the dinar sooner than later. But I do not hear that this is a trigger mechanism for the reinstatement.

MilitiaMan – Dinar Guru  On a slightly different path we see working in conjunction with Iraq, we did see the AMF with Iraq that ended a 10 day meeting…last Thursday.  It was between Iraq and the AMF among others like the IMF, WB, BIS, etc.. Why is this all important…Contracts. The AMF (22 countries), Kuwait, USA, Great Britain, Japan, Korea, etc., were working on imo valuation of the REER to use for to adjust contracts. Very important part of the final process.. They need to establish Fair Value for pricing goods and services.

Kaperoni – Dinar Guru   [When are they [IMF] going to review Iraq’s situation again I wonder]  Once the government is fully formed.  I would expect we will hear within a month.

Adam Montana – Dinar Guru   [How much more do you think Iraq needs to achieve or put into place before they can reveal their true rate of exchange? I’m sure the list has shrunk dramatically.]     Dramatically  indeed – if we don’t have any solid movement after the GOI is seated, I will be doing a more comprehensive post on the subject. Since that may not be necessary, let’s just see what the next week brings us.

MilitiaMan – Dinar Guru   Quote:  “The next phase of currency reform is the conversion from old cash currency to new. The authorities must decide—at first privately—when the currency exchange will begin, when it will end, and whether or not to cap, in absolute terms, the amount to be exchanged. Then, decisions on the announcement of and publicity for the currency exchange must be made.  Other essential decisions include the conversion rate and how financial assets, resident/nonresident accounts, and existing currency contracts will be treated in the currency exchange.”  They tell us above that those in charge of MR must decide when the exchange will begin, when it will end, etc,. They also mention the conversion rate and how it will effect other things like currency contracts and how they are to be treated in the currency exchange. This is at the end of the process as noted in the Turkmenistan model. At this final phase is at the time when they first privately, then eventually publicly say when they will do it and at what conversion rate. Hence, we await the “” 2nd Article””.. So why do I bring this back up again? Well, today we see them talking about contracts.. Part of the final phase, imo.. That is why I do.

Mnt Goat – Dinar Guru   So in today’s news we see one matter announced on Monday that Iraq has withdrawn from the FATF monitoring list after it has fulfilled its international obligations in the field of combating money laundering and terrorist financing. They have now moved to the “white list”. This can only help in the getting the reinstatement since why did the UN sanction the currency in the first place? Was it not for money laundering and financing terrorists? So this is now all taken care of and no longer an obstacle. So the CBI can no longer use this as an excuse as to why they are not reinstating the dinar.

Adam Montana – Dinar Guru  At the moment, I am content to wait for things to unfold – we have some important dates upcoming, and I foresee a holding pattern until the GOI is fully formed.  On the positive side… I have nothing negative to report…November 6 is a good day to watch for… it should be apparent at that time what the missing component is (which Government position), which will give us a very decent clue about what we can expect in the coming days.  Regarding the upcoming sanctions [Iran]…I’m glad they are prior to November 6th – that should streamline any effects that they may have. …Where the sanctioned parties may experience a weakening, Iraq has a great opportunity to gain strength.  For that reason alone, we could have a nice window just ahead!

Mnt Goat – Dinar Guru   The news is slow from Iraq since Monday and Tuesday were official holidays. Now they go back to work, however parliament is not expected back until Nov 6th.  Anyhow I would not stake any RV on any trigger completion of Mahdi’s new government in this next session anyhow since we also heard that it is not a critical matter anymore and the last set of ministers are picked and all agreed on them already…the only target I know of is of EARLY 2019. The CBI did want to move ahead with the reinstatement in the month of October but could not do so due to not resolving many matters as they thought they could.

MilitiaMan – Dinar Guru   The amount of logistics to get all that done, all the people, hotels, gifts, training, etc, and with all those big players will go down as darn near nothing but, miraculous, imo. With that said…I, others, believe this is such a very bullish time frame is because the REER ( Real Effective Exchange Rate) is time sensitive, IOO.(In our opinion).  The REER was done Thursday last real close and for them to get the rate done, it cant be much longer for us to wait, as the margin of error in the rate becomes ioo an issue, as the rate could change and that would effect a lot of countries…  Therefore, the window we are in now this week thru Monday-ish next week is serious to us…nothing shows us that they are going out to next year… Nor much into November for that matter… imo.    [post 2 of 2]

MilitiaMan – Dinar Guru   …Last week we witnessed a convergence of many things. The week prior there was the symposium with Banks and financial institutions in regard to the Iraqi Currency. The following week we see the AMF (Arab Monetary Fund) in a series of meetings with Iraq helping with the MR (Monetary Reform) along, in conjunction with the likes of the WB, IMF, UST and BIS. Basra Boyz also confirmed the BIS was there…  WS tells us they tried and tested the rate and they were successful.  The success was the Real Effective Exchange Rate. So not only the AMF met, there were high level training of the trainers while they had the fabulous 4 in country. They did all that and seated the GOI on time too.  [post 1 of 2….stay tuned]

Mnt Goat – Dinar Guru   We can see the news from Iraq is slow once again. We are at another lull. As far as the elections go we are waiting for early November to get the rest of the ministers but most importantly to see who is going to be the next three Vice Presidents…Remember the Sadr Movement does not want any old politicians in this new government. So the chances of having the Nori al-Maliki or the other two VPs back in the VP positions is slim to none. However, we must consider Maliki and his goons will continue to try and try right up until the announcement and vote in parliament.  ...Iraqi is now putting the emphasis again back on the economy, the 2019 budget and the implementation of the “Investment Law”.

MilitiaMan – Dinar Guru    Article:  “Iran’s economic minister: America implemented its ban before November 4”    Looks like they shut down Iran currency swaps / auctions???   USA implements sanctions early, thus, Iraq has obliged by not trading dollars and apparently Dinars, as they would more likely loose as the sanctions take effect, thus, they shut it down.. Wow! imo. 

Currency365 – Dinar Guru   Breaking President Trump Implements Sanctions on Iran Before November 4th…

MilitiaMan – Dinar Guru   Well by turning off Iran today real close (possibly days ago), they won’t let them use the old IQD nor the New IQD, and or the USD per sanctions that apparently are in place early, and they don’t have the new IQD yet.. Fascinating, if that holds true.  The new currency looks to be the trigger point to seriously put the squeeze on… If the Iranians can’t use the old and don’t have the new, they’ll not benefit from the new Real Effective Exchange Rate for the New IQD. Man, if that holds true, there are going to be some folks feeling a lot of economic pain… Imagine, your seating on 10 million IQD and in Iran? Can’t spend them or exchange them for USD nor New IQD…They are effectively worthless to those imposed by sanctions.. imo!  [post 2 of 2]

MilitiaMan – Dinar Guru    If they are adopting, the predominant medium of exchange for the purchasing of services, goods, then the sovereign nation and her currency will need 1 interdependent, yet, national rate. Here are some things that suggest that we are well beyond that time now.  …As we have been told the calculations have been done already. The symposium introduced to those in the need to know (albeit with reservations on what can or cannot be disclosed publicly, i.e., smalls, coins, rate, when…) about the lower denoms, 250, 500 and 1000 with new security features, publicly.  There was an article about the high level training of the trainers (trained on the new). Well they did that over a ten day period that finished up this last Thursday. …They have had training on the new currency to be coming out in the Month of October they told us per articles.  [post 1 of 2….stay tuned]