Dinar Observer Daily

Dallasdude – Dinar Guru  ..as stated 1st round of task complete, second round of task is still a work in progress, fully expect the ninth to come and go with Iraq still on the outside looking in, good thing is they are determined to be a member and led by Sudani will get there eventually.

Samson – Dinar Guru  Article: “Al-Sudani: Iraq is moving today to the stage of revitalizing the economy and consolidating sovereignty”

Yada – Dinar Guru   …the news is outstanding regarding the progress of the Council of ministers having approved the budget schedules.   What is important…the rates were set with the US visit, council of ministers approved or amended the rates…all before Parliament sees it, WE are about to see the rates that the Parliament will see at the same time.  All by design to keep them from interfering…Im expecting this evening into the morning to seeing our expected end. The world waits the release and I believe it is upon us.

Kaperoni – Dinar Guru   It is critical to understand that if the Central Bank of Iraq plans to end the auctions by the end of the year there must be a new mechanism in place or there would be no method to maintain stability of the dinar.  So for the central bank to announce that they plan to end the auctions they are in essence announcing, that they plan to float the dinar. Floating the dinar provides the new tools for the central bank to maintain stability.  Therefore, this announcement to end the auctions confirms (despite what some may say), Iraq will float their currency

Militia Man – Dinar Guru  Article: “Iraqi Council of Ministers approves the 2024 budget schedules”  The next step would be to take those schedules and deliver them to the House of Representatives.  If we see that, that’s going to be powerful because everybody’s gonna be biting their nails because it could very well suggest something could happen prior to that happening.  It’s a nail biter…

Yada – Dinar Guru  …this process moved beyond the needs of just Iraq, it had move to the benefits of the 84 countries with contracts with Iraq. The rest of the central banks with dinar in their foreign reserves.  And the non-revenue income that will decrease Iraq dependence on oil from 95% do about 55%.  Just one rate adjustment will have this impact.

Kaperoni – Dinar Guru  Question:  “So would the CBI set the initial float rate?“ When a country makes a determination to float their currency, the exchange rate is whatever the official rate is at that time.  Supply and demand then takes over from there.

Pimpy – Dinar Guru If  the dinar were to go free floating that means the rate it will adopt is going to be the one that we see on the parallel market…

Paulette – Dinar Guru   Community Comment:  “On May 9th it has been announced that Iraq will become a FULL member of the WTO.”  I have not seen where Iraq has participated in the Third Round of negotiations…It took Iraq since 2004 to complete everything assigned in the First Round of negotiations.  It was only earlier this year that they completed those requirements.  They were given tasks in the Second Rd of Negotiations which they are in process of completing.  They may be given tasks in the Third Rd of Negotiations also.  The Third Rd is scheduled for “mid-year”.  I believe the only countries that have completed everything for the May 9th Ascension Ceremony are Comoros and East Timor….

Kaperoni – Dinar Guru   Article:  “Al-Rayes: The path of development is the first gateway to sustainable economic advancement”  If and when the Iraqi dinar begins to float supply and demand based on Iraq’s economic success will take over.  Only with the success and growth of Iraq’s own economy can the dinar go up in value. How fast and the pace are determined by those factors.

Militia Man – Dinar Guru  Article: “Specialist: Floating the dinar is economic suicide”  Them bringing up exchange regimes obviously…they’re going to do something because why talk about it if it’s not going to change.  You don’t.

Mountain Goat – Dinar Guru    Article:  IRAQ TALKS ABOUT PRODUCING ONE MILLION LITERS OF GASOLINE DAILY   Quote:  “increase refining capacity production rates and improve production in national refineries to reach self-sufficiency and gradually shift to exporting them to global markets…”  Well…well…its about time that Iraq got these refineries up and running. Lots of articles about this effort over the last ten years. Did I hear of another export product here?

Militia Man – Dinar Guru  Non-oil revenues…Iraq has the largest sulfur deposit in the world.  They can tap into that.  It’s going to be part of their non-oil revenues.  The amount of natural resources Iraq has is off the charts.  Anything that suggests they can’t afford to do what they’re going to do and go to a market economy I think is highly mistaken.

Kaperoni – Dinar Guru  For many years now the process for countries is to create the conditions for economic success, then change their monetary policy to allow their currency to float.  Flotation allows a country’s currency to ascend or descend based on supply and demand as a result of that success.  The success of Iraq’s exchange rate and currency then is a direct result of the economic success within Iraq. The potential is excellent providing Iraq continues to move forward and progress and create the conditions necessary for economic success and growth.

Paulette – Dinar Guru   Question:  “Is Iraq still on point to enter the WTO on may 9th?”   Iraq has not yet passed the required Product Protection Act and the Steering Committee doesn’t even meet again until “mid-year”.

Clare – Dinar Guru   Article Quote:   “Saleh said…Calls for floating the dinar to end the gap between the official exchange rate and the parallel market may be possible in an economy in which the free market alone influences the movement of the balance of payments and not in an economy in which the rentier government sector is dominant and generates currency reserves.”

Militia Man – Dinar Guru   Article:  “Economist Muhammad Hashem Helou confirmed that the central bank cannot float the dinar exchange rate.”  We’ve seen a few articles over the last week openly talking about the types of regiments that are exchange rate oriented, whether it’s a fixed float or pegged etc.   Saleh has spoken about it, he says it [floating] is dangerous …the environment would not be good so it wouldn’t be the best choice… Circumstances for the country of Iraq which is still primarily a rentier, which means oil based, it’s best to have a fixed exchange rate…

Mountain Goat – Dinar Guru   I feel we have been in a critical period of the currency reform program since January of last year 2023.  Now we are in a “vital” period.  Like a game of chess, we are now in a waiting mode for the Central Bank to make their next move and rollout the second-rate change in-country to just over a dollar, that we were told is coming. Since they told us they now control the parallel “black” market, and that negotiations were successful in lifting sanctions on many Iraqi banks.

Kaperoni – Dinar Guru  It is highly unlikely that any bank will have anything to do with the dinar for quite some time. Banks are conservative by nature and the dinar could be quite volatile once they begin to float.  In the past we have talked about market makers and ECNs. These could end up being the method to facilitate your currency investment or through an established financial institution such as JP Morgan.  Time will answer these questions.

Pimpy – Dinar Guru  My personal feeling is they are going to take the zeros off.  Do I want Iraq to take the zeros off?  No.  I would hope they would leave it on and then revalue it with a higher exchange rate.  That’s what I’m hoping for.

Militia Man – Dinar Guru  Rebuilding the country is not going to happen anytime soon with 1310…Obviously they’ve got something else in mind because they’ve already said they’ve launched the projects, therefore there’s contracts involved.  What the rates are with the contracts that’s private information...They know how to keep things quiet until the right time…

Kaperoni – Dinar Guru  I remind everyone just two weeks ago the Central Bank of Iraq announced that they plan to end the currency auctions by the end of the year. If that is the plan, they must have a replacement which is the float.

Clare – Dinar Guru   Article:   “Specialist: Floating the dinar is economic suicide”  Quote:  “Economist Muhammad Hashem Helou confirmed that the central bank cannot float the dinar exchange rate…adding that floating the exchange rate in the presence of a parallel market and large speculators, and the presence of people who own billions of dinars and others who own billions of dollars, will lead to a sharp decline in the value of the currency, high levels of inflation, and rising prices“

Paulette – Dinar Guru  Article:  “Specialist: Floating the dinar is economic suicide”   As Saleh was stating but only stronger wording.

Samson – Dinar Guru  Article: “The largest gas field in Iraq is close to seeing the light: a wealth that will reduce the import bill“

Kaperoni – Dinar Guru  A country’s currency is not some random act. An exchange rate is based on many factors including: reserves, GDP, economic growth etc. Iraq has a long ways to go and must pass laws to encourage investment. Only with the success of Iraq’s economy can the dinar rise in value.

Clare – Dinar Guru  Article: “Advisor to the Prime Minister: The dollar exchange rate in the parallel market is gradually approaching the official one”  Quote:  “Saleh, explained the dangers of the exchange rate fluctuations in the event that demands for floating the dinar are met, while confirming that the dollar exchange rate in the parallel market is gradually approaching the official one…”

Pimpy – Dinar Guru  Some of the bigger points we see inside the Iraqi dinar community such as, ‘Let them reinstate the exchange rate to $3.22 the old rate.‘  That’s not the old rate. That’s been a myth for a long time…The $3.22 rate was there but that was not the one they left when it became a devalued currency. It was something like $1.52.  The other one [myth] is the
hydrocarbon law that once it passes then the Iraq citizens are going to get payments. They’re not going to get payments.  Read the law, nowhere does it say they’re going to get payments.

Militia Man – Dinar Guru  Everything is falling in line for Iraq to go international.  You haven’t see the salaries paid yet…you haven’t seen the oil start pumping yet into Turkey…Why?  Because they haven’t shown us or exposed an international real effective exchange rate.  That’s my view on it.

Pimpy – Dinar Guru  Community comment “Parliament doesn’t have to vote on a budget…” They do whenever you make  amendments or changes...If you’re going to change something in there you have to vote on the amendments…  Community Question “So  you’re saying if they’re gonna change the exchange rate on a budget they have to vote on it?”  That’s correct.  Yes.