Dinar Observer Daily

Reset Intelligence – Dinar Guru  Monday morning Iraq woke up outside its constitutional window. The Article 76 shot clock ran out the night before. The Coordination Framework’s consensus name, Iraqi Intelligence chief Hamid al-Shatri, was rejected by Maliki’s bloc late Sunday. Empty bench. Shot clock at zero. Second constitutional breach of 2026.

Mountain Goat – Dinar Guru  …right now, today you can go on FOREX and see the trends for the Kuwaiti dinar…1 KWD is equal to $3.24 USD. Yes, the KWD is the strongest currency in the world. Take a look at the assets of Iraq as they more than double that of Kuwait. Yes, Iraq right next door to Kuwait. Why would anyone doubt that the IQD could possibly come out on a reinstatement at $4.80… 

Fnu Lnu – Dinar Guru  Article:  “Moody’s has changed its outlook on the Government of Iraq to negative from stable and affirmed the long-term issuer ratings at Caa1…The change in the outlook to negative reflects rising risks to Iraq’s credit profile stemming from the conflict in the Middle East, as risks to energy flows and the security situation remain elevated.”  This verifies my contention that the war is and has caused serious degradation of the economic outlook for Iraq.

BGG Response: I almost didn’t post this – but I did, so I could post a response. I don’t see this as a long-term problem. If Iraq is ever to stand on it’s own (and it needs to), Iran has to be dealt with (including the Shia PMUs in Iraq). Better it happens now than later.

The Iraqi PMUs have evolved into a mini-Hamas, Hezbollah, Houthi type Iranian proxy in the region. It appears Washington has the appetite to deal with all of them at once. Further, the President has made it VERY CLEAR Maliki IS NOT an acceptable candidate. Probably not Sudani either. JMHO.

Samson – Dinar Guru   Article:   “IRAQ MAINTAINS ITS POSITION AMONG THE WORLD’S TOP HOLDERS OF GOLD RESERVES“

Dinar Investor – Jeff   Let me tell you how this is going to break down between the Central Bank of Iraq’s website and Forex.  First off, Forex is delayed by 3 days…If you have Iraqi dinar, go to the Central Bank of Iraq’s website to know when the rate changes.

Militia Man – Dinar Guru   Oil prices are rising on supply concerns…The medium and heavy was somewhere around $122.  That’s big…because their budget is at $70.  That’s $50 over.  That’s a lot of money.  At the same time this is taking place Iraq is actively working on alternative routes and domestic production to reduce single point of risk.

Samson – Dinar Guru  Article: “The President of the Republic affirms to the Governor of the Central Bank the necessity of strengthening the dinar and continuing reforms“

Sandy Ingram – Dinar Guru   The Strait of Hormuz…What would happen if and when oil hits $200 a barrel?  The Iraqi budget wouldn’t just balance, it would explode in a massive surplus.  Is this the event that would trigger the IQD currency adjustment?  Iraq’s economy depends on oil and their budget will balance if oil is priced at $70 per barrel.  If oil goes to $150 to $200 a barrel, Iraq’s foreign reserves would double within months.  We already know they have $100 billion in foreign reserve in the United States…This is not a pie in the sky assessment.  This is an assessment global economists can clearly see and now you can see.

Samson – Dinar Guru  Article:  “US STATE DEPARTMENT : SENDING DOLLARS TO IRAQ WAS TEMPORARILY SUSPENDED“

Clare – Dinar Guru  Article: “The President of the Republic affirms to the Governor of the Central Bank the necessity of strengthening the dinar and continuing reforms” 

Samson – Dinar Guru Article: “REUTERS : TANKER ‘HELGA’ ARRIVES IN BASRA TO LOAD TWO MILLION BARRELS OF IRAQI OIL”

Samson – Dinar Guru  Article “THE US DEPARTMENT OF JUSTICE FILES A LAWSUIT TO SEIZE A CALIFORNIA MANSION BELONGING TO MANSOUR BARZANI”

BGG response: That’s not how I read this news… as I understood it, it sounded like the property belonged to (or was purchased by) the U.S. fuel contractor who bribed Barzani. On the other hand, if it is his – fine. Take it. The Kurds might get the idea we aren’t kidding around.

Dinar Investor – Jeff   The closer you get to the finish line, the more misleading you have to expect the news to be.  And that’s what you’re witnessing.

Omar – Dinar Guru   The United States has blocked $500 million in cash delivery to Iraq in order to pressure Baghdad in dismantling the Iranian-backed militia.  We found out today that a cargo plane carrying nearly $500 million in physical banknotes was blocked by the Treasury Department today.  This is the second time that such a shipment was delayed since the Iraq war began in February.  The money is Iraq’s own money.  It is from our oil revenue that the United States has been holding in the Federal Reserve Bank of New York since 2003…Iraq cannot pay salaries, food and medicine without the United States approval of these transfers…

BGG response: This has been on many major news outlets recently. Widely published. Good news.

Clare – Dinar Guru  Article:  “New sanctions package: Freezing accounts and terminating the residency permits of politicians and their families in America and Europe” Quote: “Following the move to block the flow of dollars into Iraq…the next phase may witness…’termination of residency permits’ of Iraqis in Western countries suspected of having ties to Iran… These  measures will not be limited to the United States, but could extend to ‘Iraqis in Europe, Canada, and Australia, including politicians, their families, and their bank accounts…‘ ”

Mountain Goat – Dinar Guru  It appears that there are still some doubters about this investment in the Iraq dinar. With my knowledge and study of the revaluation of the Iraq dinar I do not think, but I know, this dinar is going to revalue soon and it will revalue under the Trump administration. All Chapter VII sanctions are gone as well as all other obstacles except one  including the OFAC sanctions which limits trading of the IQD, meaning it is not yet on FOREX or other currency trading platforms. This is the last step and this step is going to happen soon as it has to for the Trump plan for Iraq to get investors flocking into Iraq.   I am not saying it will happen tomorrow but my CBI contact recently told me they are already conducting the re-education phase to make citizens aware that this removing of the zeros is coming. Why would they do this now again?  My contact is on the committee to roll out the lower denominations when this even occurs. Do not get discouraged…

Samson – Dinar Guru  Article:  “GLOBAL OIL PRICES RISE, WITH BRENT CRUDE REACHING $104 PER BARREL“

Reset Intelligence – Dinar Guru  On Thursday in Baghdad, parliament extended its own term by 30 days.  Surprise level = zero.  Every Iraqi cabinet formation since 2005 has missed its constitutional clock. The 2018 cycle ran eight months before key ministries were filled. The 2022 cycle ran more than a year before a government stood up…The room parliament walked back into is the one that matters.  The 2026 budget is closed…Article 24 blocks new borrowing until a seated parliament passes a law. The oil-proceeds cash pallets through the Federal Reserve Bank of New York are halted. Reserves stress was signaled on Iraqi state television this week. That corners the CBI to two levers: draw down reserves, or reprice the dinar. One of those got a signal this week.  The other did not.  Well not yet anyway…

Sandy Ingram – Dinar Guru   Remember Iraq has over $100 billion in the US Federal Reserve…because Iraq is still under sanctions.  All of Iraq’s oil money is paid in US dollars and is funneled through the US Federal Reserve…It’s their money…now the US is saying, no, no, no, no no, we’re not seeding any more money because of the Iran backed militants in your country…This is unbelievable.

Dinar Investor – Jeff  Once the government is 100% done that allows them to revalue the currency…The only thing we really care about right now is the formation of the government, more specifically the prime minister position because that’s the last final one…The HCL comes after the rate changes.

Mountain Goat – Dinar Guru   …we learn that the meetings that were supposed to decide on the prime minister candidate this week did not result in selecting a new nominee for the position. We are told the deadline is this weekend and the end to constitutional clock is nearing…the clock is ticking and ends Sunday 4/26. Will they string it out right to the very end?

Samson – Dinar Guru  Article:  “EXCLUSIVE: MILES CAGGINS: WASHINGTON IS USING THE ‘WEAPON OF ECONOMICS’ TO DISTANCE IRAQ FROM TEHRAN“

Sandy Ingram – Dinar Guru  This is unbelievable.  The US Treasury Department has blocked an aircraft that was carrying $500 million US banknotes from Iraq’s oil revenue…The United States has shut down the money flow from Iraq’s own money because of the Iran-backed militants in the country…and have also paused parts of its security cooperation with the Iraqi military according to the Wall Street Journal.  This move is intended to increase pressure on Baghdad to take action against powerful Iran aligned groups operating inside of the country Iraq…

Dinar Investor – Jeff   Question: “All this talk about removing the zeros, is that in country only?”  No, they can’t do things only within country.  Anytime the value of the dinar is posted on the CBI website that’s publicly global.  Nothing’s just in Iraq.

Mountain Goat – Dinar Guru   Article:   “WASHINGTON HAS HALTED DOLLAR SHIPMENTS TO IRAQ UNTIL A NEW IRAQI GOVERNMENT IS FORMED”  we learn one of the measures the US is using to threaten Iraq to disarm the Iranian backed militia is to cut off shipments of dollars to Iraq…These current U.S. sanctions appear to be about the sanctioning of the actual airborne flights of paper dollars into Iraq… Will it actually help Iraq more than hurt it in curbing the parallel market since the paper dollars will dry up. Maybe this is something that should have been done a long time ago? It will bring up the rate of the dinar.

Dinar Investor – Jeff  Many have stated deleting the zeros refers to taking zeros off the exchange rate…This is very misleading, inaccurate information…It means taking three zeros off the currency notes.  In other words, ending, eliminating, removing three zeroed or multiple zero currency notes.  It has nothing to do with the exchange rate.  Only the currency notes.   Getting them, phasing them out, removing them, getting them out of circulation to replace.  They’re going to be replacing multiple  zero currency notes with smaller currency notes.  Why?  Because the US sanctions are coming off and Iraq has little to no  inflation.

Reset Intelligence – Dinar Guru  Parliament backed the Central Bank’s monetary independence as a principle. That is a different question from what the banks think of the man in the governor’s seat. On the same week the parliament speaker walked into the governor’s office, the central bank issued the ninety-page supervisory framework that binds fifteen Islamic bank licences to  the International Financial Services Board standard on capital adequacy. The institutional track keeps running under the operator who has refused for a year to touch the rate. The plumbing continues to tighten.

Militia Man – Dinar Guru  The headlines can feel loud with regional tensions but underneath that noise the real signals we’ve been tracking continue to show a quiet but steady progress on reforms, diversification and political cleanup taking place.

Sandy Ingram – Dinar Guru  Why has Iraq not disarmed the Iran-backed militants?  This has gotten totally out of hand. Other countries in the Middle East are calling on Iraq to explain why missiles are leaving Iraq and landing in their countries. This is really serious….How does this affect our investment?  …We are unsure what hold Iran has over Iraq…Religious ties may be behind the unusual bond between the two countries…As investors, we may need to wrap our heads around the fact that Iran will always be in the picture.  Does Iran want Iraq’s currency to adjust to a higher value?  Probably, but we can’t be sure.  At least not yet.

Dinar Investor – Jeff   The formation of Iraq’s government is the lynch pin to the rate change…It’s all coming together…They are setting the stage to revalue…We’re extremely close to the timing of the rate change…Good news is coming…